The Washington Capitals are going to have to invest a lot of money in Evgeny Kuznetsov this offseason. But just how much is “a lot”?
There is perhaps no more important free agent for the Washington Capitals this offseason than center Evgeny Kuznetsov. He became a restricted free agent for the first time after the 2014-15 season, his first full year in the league. Kuznetsov was largely unproven at this point. Knowing this, the Caps gave him a bridge deal.
They realized they would have to pay him more after the 2016-17 season. However, a bridge deal was by far the most logical choice for both sides back in 2015. The Capitals could have opted for a long-term deal, but it likely would have been counterproductive to their two year plan.
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Now it’s time for the Caps to give Kuznetsov a long-term deal. A bridge deal makes zero sense at this point. Washington’s goals are no longer short-term oriented, but rather long-term. Building a team that can contend for multiple years is the primary objective right now. Signing Kuznetsov long-term is obviously an important part of it.
Who Holds Leverage?
Washington has a little bit of bargaining power in this negotiation. Kuznetsov is coming off a down year compared to his 2015-16 season. He saw his point total drop from 77 to 59 this season. But there’s where the leverage ends for the Caps.
Evgeny Kuznetsov holds most of the power in this scenario. He’s proven to be one of the best centers in the NHL. Kuznetsov has 39 goals over the past two seasons. Moving forward, he’s a very important part of the team and he should see a larger role.
His Comparables
Washington Capitals
A very important part of negotiations, namely arbitration should it come to that, are your peers. Kuznetsov compares very favorably among forwards since the beginning of the 2014-15 season. All of this data is at even strength and courtesy of Corsica.com unless otherwise specified. The qualifier is at least 2500 even strength minutes and these are just for the regular season.
Kuznetsov ranks 27th in primary points (goals and first assists) per 60 minutes at 1.62. Among strictly centers, he’s in the top 10. Looking at points per sixty minutes, he ranks 29th at 2.04.
Kuznetsov is undeniably a top offensive center. His defensive game has also improved, often being asked to take on some of his opponents toughest lines. Kuznetsov’s closest comparable is probably Mark Scheifele. While Kuzy is a year older than Scheifele, their production has been remarkably similar. He signed an eight year deal worth $6.15 million last offseason at the age of 23 while the Caps center will sign his at the age of 25. Kuznetsov also has more games played than Scheifele did when he signed the extension.
Other Factors
This is a huge long shot, but Evgeny Kuznetsov could in theory sign with the KHL if he really wants to play in the 2018 Olympics. Long-term, this wouldn’t change much. He’ll likely just sign a one-year deal if he does go to the KHL. The only reason Kuznetsov might sign long-term overseas is if the Caps don’t value him, which we can safely assume is untrue.
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Prediction
I think if eight years with a $6.15 million average annual value is what it takes to sign Kuzy, the Capitals should jump on it. This is the price of a top center in today’s NHL. Even though Evgeny Kuznetsov isn’t the Capitals best center right now, he will be shortly. For six or seven years, the price likely gets raised to around $6.5 million to over $7 million a year. Eight years likely lowers the AAV to a more reasonable level.