Washington Capitals: Early 2019 predictions for Evgeny Kuznetsov

Life for Evgeny Kuznetsov at this time last year was very different.

Individually Evgeny Kuznetsov was coming off his best season yet. In my opinion, he went from being an NHL player to an NHL star. The Capitals in the Alex Ovechkin era had always needed that kind of player. Someone to help him and Nicklas Backstrom at the biggest time of the year.

The one year Ovechkin and Backstrom got that help they won the Stanley Cup. After that it was nothing but good times. Partying and dancing in the streets, or in the Capitals case, swimming in water fountains.

It’s always interesting to see how players will react after all the pressure is gone, or at least somewhat gone. The Caps, who experienced so much heartbreak, were now at the top of the hockey world. How would the team perform the next season.

More from Editorials

The team performed pretty well. They won their division, were the third best team in the eastern conference and still considered a huge threat to win the east and the Stanley Cup.

Kuznetsov on the other hand was seemingly average most of the season. Last season there were a ton of games where you just didn’t notice him. Even worse is that situation repeated itself at the most important time of the year, the playoffs.

It’s a huge compliment to call a player average then look at his season stats and see he was nearly a point per game player. That shows the talent that Kuznetsov has. He has hit that level to where he can produce in his sleep almost.

That’s also the frustrating part of Kuznetsov. If he can put up 72 points in 76 games while not being at the top of his game what could he do if he brought his best every night. After an on and off season is terms of consistency and noticeability and a short postseason I’m sure Kuznetsov will want to prove he can be depended on every night.

So what’s that mean? What’s an outstanding season for the twenty-seven year old Russian centerman? Lets dive into a few stats to see if we can guess what kind of season Kuznetsov might have.

I don’t know if Kuznetsov is ever going to be an advanced stats wizard at this point. Looking at his best season in the NHL (the 2017-18 season) his Corsi% was pretty much the same as this past season. In 2017-18 his Corsi was 47.82% and this past season it was 47.35%. Just slightly down.

One thing you’ll notice looking at his stats are his scoring chances% and his high danger attempts% went down and way down one in case this past season. Kuznetsov’s scoring chance percentage went from 49.65% in 2017-18 to 45.45% in 2018-19. His high danger attempts% went from 47.76% two years ago to 39.75% last season.

If you want to dive into those numbers a little more we can. Last season with Kuznetsov on the ice the Caps averaged 6.17 scoring chances a game. That was down from 7.11 the year before.

Last season the Caps averaged 7.40 scoring chances against when Kuznetsov was on the ice. Up from 7.21 in 2017-18. Not much but still up.

Last season Kuznetsov averaged 2.5 high danger attempts while on the ice and that was down from 2.97 in 2017-18.

Finally with Kuznetsov on the ice Washington averaged 3.78 high danger attempts against a game which was 3.25 the year before.

All of those numbers need to be better. To say it with a lot less words when Kuznetsov is on the ice he and his team tend to give up more than they get. At least in terms of chances. In terms of goals the Capitals are good when Kuznetsov is on the ice, this year they scored 60 goals and allowed 43 goals and last year scored 59 allowing 47.

But again, Kuznetsov is talented enough to score there’s not doubt there. If he brought his A game he and his line could be dominant. If he brings his everything, which I think he will next season he can control play, control the scoring chances and high danger attempts battle and have a terrific season.

I think Kuznetsov has to bring his scoring chances per game back up to over seven and take his chances against per game to under seven and he really needs to flip his high danger attempts per game.

Even in his best season Kuznetsov allowed more than he got but this past season was a lot worse and he needs to bring those numbers back up.

If he does what kind of season could Kuznetsov have? With a consistent effort I think 88-93 points is very doable. I think a 25 goals and 65 assists season equaling 90 points would be a great season for Kuznetsov and catapult the Capitals in the regular season and playoffs.

It’s amazing how a year can change so much. Last year at this time Kuznetsov was on top of the world as a Stanley Cup champion. Now he’s had a down season and going into a huge prove it season.

Hot. 3 things we'd love to see at the Rookie Tournament. light

Will he bounce back? What kind of numbers do you see Kuznetsov putting up next season?

Home / Editorials