Washington Capitals: 3 predictions for Dmitry Orlov

During the 2014 IIHF World Championships Capitals defenseman Dmitry Orlov broke his wrist.

It was an unfortunate injury but it occurred in mid May. It would take a couple of months to return from this injury but Dmitry Orlov was expected to return early that next season for Washington. To make a long story short he did not return early that season, he in fact did not return at all that season. Several setbacks meant he missed the entire 2014-15 season.

Since then he has not missed a game for the Capitals playing in all eighty-two games for four straight seasons. That’s 328 straight regular season games for Orlov. While some iron man streaks are much higher, like former Caps defenseman Karl Alzner who got a streak up to 622 games, 328 is something to be proud of.

In that time Orlov has gone from a potential NHL regular to a key player on the Capitals. Washington’s reliance on him has gotten higher and higher in recent years thanks to the departures of key defenseman like Alzner, and now Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik.

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It won’t be any different this season, the Capitals need Orlov and need him in a big way. Don’t expect anything but great things from number nine. I’m predicting he’ll have an even better season this year than he did last. Here’s a couple of things I’m expecting.

He’ll triple his goals output this season

Last season Orlov scored just 3 goals. That was down from the previous year where he scored 10 goals. He scored six goals in 2016-17 and eight goals in 2015-16. Those numbers are more like him and I’m thinking he’ll get back to those kinds of numbers this coming season.

With Niskanen going to the Philadelphia Flyers the Caps have lost eight goals from the defense and they’re going to need to be made up somewhere. John Carlson could or should get a couple more goals but you’ll need someone else to help him out.

Having Orlov get around 10 goals would be big for the Capitals offense. An offense that lost nearly fifty goals. To get those goals back it will need to be a team effort and Orlov tripling his goal total will go a long way to help that.

He’ll drop his 5v5 goals against

Last season no Capitals defenseman was scored on more five-on-five than Orlov. The official number was 71 goals against when Orlov was on the ice at 5v5. The next highest was Carlson at 62. Niskanen had 60 goals against and Michal Kempny had 53 against.

With so much offense lost this off-season that Caps will likely need to be better defensively. That’s especially true for Orlov. With a potentially more aggressive style of play, that could lead to less goals against and an easier time for the goalie.

Here is Orlov’s 5v5 goals against by season:

2015-16: 47

2016-17: 45

2017-18: 60

Expect Orlov to go back down to at least the high fifties. His 71 last season was a career high by a wide margin and I wouldn’t expect that to be as high.

He’ll play well without Matt Niskanen

One reason I see Orlov dropping his goals against total is he’ll have a new defensive partner. Niskanen played well for the Capitals for years and played well with Orlov for a couple of seasons. For whatever reason that pair did not have a great season last season.

Last season they scored 39 goals while on the ice together but allowed 50 goals. Their scoring chance for percentage was 47.55% and their high danger attempts percentage was a pretty miserable 38.76%.

Orlov didn’t play very much with anyone else last season but he did play with Carlson for over two hundred minutes. With Carlson the Capitals scored 21 goals while allowing 14. That pairs scoring chance percentage was 49.58%, better than the Niskanen pairing, and their high danger attempts percentage was 47.66%, a lot better.

We’ll see who Orlov ends up pairing up with but it will likely end up being a positive change for him if you ask me.