Capitals: Nick Jensen… Unsung Hero? Or Deserving Scapegoat?

Nick Jensen has received a fair amount of criticism from both the fan base and the pundits during his time here in Washington. Does he deserve the reputation he has seemed to develop? Let’s take a look.

Nick Jensen seems to take a lot of heat from the Capitals fan base for his play, almost for his entirety of the time he has spent here, Whereas he does make some glaring plays at times, it is not exactly indicative of his overall play. I want to take a quick look at some numbers for this season and relate them both to his position in the defensive rotation for the Capitals, and his counterparts around the league.

All numbers are for 5 v 5 play.

Let’s start with the relationship between Jensen, and his teammates. The first thing to notice will be his overall time on ice. Jensen has played 777 minutes, that is good for 3rd most on the team.

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He has played predominately with Dmitry Orlov, who leads the team in 5 v 5 ice time, with 942 minutes. Over Jensens’ 777 minutes, he has 34 giveaways, 3rd least of the defensive rotation.

This is one thing I feel I hear the most about when it comes to criticism of Nick Jensen. Poor decision making leading to turnovers. With the 3rd least on the team, with the 3rd most minutes, it is a stat that doesn’t quite add up to the critique of his play. The more minutes you play, the more situations you will be exposed to that can lead to these giveaways. He actually seems to be doing quite well in this regard.

Next, some of the best defenseman in the league not only don’t get beat, but they turn the puck over from the player they are trying to defend as well. Almost all defenseman in the NHL are extremely proficient at not getting beat by their mark, but I think takeaways are emblematic of guys who are the best at this.

A side note here, Dmitry Orlov is 5th in the league in takeaways. He is an ultra-aggressive defenseman, which I love about his game. That can lead to mistakes as well. With Jensen being his D partner, these mistakes can force him into very tough situations.

These mistakes while making reads, as well as being aggressive will inevitably lead to goals scored against, especially when playing against the other teams top 2 lines. And with Orlov and Jensen both 5th and 6th respectively in Goals For Percentage (GF%) for the Capitals, the aggressiveness can be the causality of these goals.

Back to the original point though, defensemen being aggressive and turning pucks over is a constant message from these coaches, and Jensen is tied with Carlson in 2nd on the Capitals with 22 takeaways. Jensens’ 22 takeaways puts him 27th-30th best in the league. That is basically good for the top 16th percentile in the league (28.5/6X30).

Now I’d like to point out Corsi For(CF%), Scoring Chances For(SCF%), and PDO for Jensen and where it ranks among the Capitals defensive core. Jensen has a CF% of 50.65 and a SCF% of 50.89. Both are good for 4th on the Capitals. With the especially aggressive nature of his D partner, primarily Dmitry Orlov, these are not bad numbers to have, both above 50%.

Playing aggressively against the other teams’ top lines have left him even with the other team in total shots and scoring chances. Individual PDO is a combination of your Shooting Percentage (SH%) and the Save Percentage (SV%) of the goalie while you as a player are on the ice. Jensen has the lowest PDO of any regular player on the Capitals roster, with a .984 PDO. In understandable terms, he is playing better than it appears and “luck” has not led to an inflation of his statistics.

To me, this is where it gets interesting. I collected a list of the 5 players directly ahead of Jensen in 5 v 5 ice time, and the 5 directly behind him. I compared his CF%, SCF%, and PDO to these 10 players. I have also compiled the AAV of all these players contracts to show the efficiency of these numbers in relation to these players ice time and pay. The perfect combination for any GM will be a player who gets a heck of a lot of ice time, puts up great numbers, and gets payed considerably less than any player they can reasonably be compared with. In comparison with the closest 10 defensemen to Jensens’ ice time, he is doing extraordinarily well. He comes in 3rd in CF% at 50.65. He is tied in 2nd in SCF% at 50.89, and he is first in PDO at .984.

The average AAV of these 10 players’ contracts is $4,230,900.50. Jensen comes in at $2,500,000, well below this average. Both players ahead of him in CF%, get payed about between 2.1M and 3.25M more dollars than Jensen, per year! The only player ahead of him in SCF%, again, gets 3.25M more than Jensen. The coup de grace though is he leads them all in PDO. Jensen is getting just as much responsibility as these players, putting up better numbers then most as far as these three stats go, and is getting paid much, much less. I think it can be easy to use him as a scapegoat when comparing him to his defensive teammates (even though that’s not particularly fair); when you compare him to his 5 v 5 peers, he is way ahead with the added bonus of being payed considerably less.

However, it’s not all roses here. The glaring aspect of his game comes from his High Danger Chances For Percentage (HDCF%). He is in last place for the Capitals, with 46.62%, followed by Orlov. Some of this as I’ve already argued, can be due to the usage against the other teams’ top players, and the aggressiveness of his primary defensive partner.

When you are that aggressive, you will get burned eventually. Before taking a look at the numbers, I’ve always thought that it seems like he takes a lot of hits behind the goal line, an above average amount of hits; and in numerous types of plays (50/50 puck races, D to D plays, skating it himself, breaking the puck out, and any other way forecheck pressure can get to you). To my eye, that is what sticks out to me. Then I looked at the numbers, I wasn’t wrong. He has taken 88 hits this season. This number is well above any other defenseman for the Capitals. The 88 hits taken, has him at 21st in the league. This is not good.

The Capitals are in the business of winning Stanley Cups. As you work through that marathon, the speed of the game amps up, space closes down quicker, forechecks get to the play faster, and then the forecheck finishes harder. The usage of Jensen against the other teams’ top players in games where these guys are playing at their best; I see his inability to not take these hits that lead to turnovers, as a potential huge problem. At the pinnacle of the sports’ competition, turnovers become goals very quickly.

I didn’t know what I’d find here looking at his numbers. I figured I’d obviously find a better educated opinion for myself, good or bad. What I didn’t expect to find, was that the Capitals have a player that they are asking to do more than what their paying him to do, to some extent excelling at that, and that he is exceeding his counterparts around the league and fitting in exactly where he should be in the Capitals lineup.

I have stated my concern with his game, and the numbers I found back that up, but not every defenseman is John Carlson, and you certainly can’t pay them all like that.

Whether or not the Capitals use this information they have, to bolster their opinion of him, or to use him as an attractable player to trade, is where the rubber meets the road. People get payed a lot of money to make these decisions, and I’m not one of them.

Stats courtesy of http://naturalstattrick.com

Contract information courtesy of http://capfriendly.com