Washington Capitals: What Would Be A Good Season For Ilya Samsonov

It will be an interesting upcoming season for the Washington Capitals.

A lot of that interest and intrigue surrounding the Washington Capitals will be thanks to the goaltending position. Ilya Samsonov will be entering his first year as the number one guy. Taking over for a team legend and entering your first year as a starter is interesting enough.

Behind him is a guy that most hockey fans would be shocked if you told them he’d be here, or anywhere else for that matter. That man being Henrik Lundqvist. How will the 38-year-old Lundqvist look in his first season outside of “The Big Apple”? How much does he have left?

We have a future hall of famer as the backup in his first season in a new city and new team, and a guy in his early twenties who has 26 games of NHL experience. If that doesn’t intrigue you I’m not sure what will.

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While Lundqvist will likely get more attention from the national media, Capitals fans should be a lot more curious on how Samsonov will do. It’s risky for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations to hand the keys to a guy as young and with as little experience as Samsonov. This is a position that can make or break cup runs.

While a long run or a Cup will ultimately determine how successful his and the teams season is, what would a good season look like for Samsonov stats wise?

We’ll use three goaltenders as example of what a good season could be, two of these are former Capitals goalies, another is a fellow young Russian goalie.

We might as well start with someone everyone is familiar with and loves here, Braden Holtby. Holtby’s first season as a starter came in the lockout shortened season of 2013. With the season starting late and likely being less than 82 games, perhaps this could be the best example. Holtby had 21 games of NHL regular season experience before becoming a starter. He also had 14 playoff games under his belt.

In his first season as a starter Holtby played in 36 games, he had a goals against average of 2.58 and a save percentage of .920%. That’s a pretty good season for the then 24-year-old Holtby.

The other former Capital we will talk about here is Philipp Grubauer. Grubauer played with the Capitals for parts of six seasons, becoming the main backup for his last three seasons. He was traded to the Avalanche in the summer of 2018.

In 2018-19 he had a 2.64 goals against average and paired that with a .917% save percentage. He claimed the starters job late that season and played in 37 games. The next season, his first as the undisputed starter, he played in 35 games and posted nearly the same exact results. He had a 2.63 goals against average and a .916% save percentage. He played in 36 games this past season.

Finally, we’ll look at one of Samsonov’s countrymen, the latest goaltender to win a Stanley Cup, Andrei Vasilevskiy. He was much like Samsonov coming into the NHL. A young Russian goaltender, playing in the KHL, drafted in the first round and had high expectations. Both briefly played in the AHL before being assigned backup roles. Vasilevskiy had two years of backup duty, Samsonov just the one.

In his first season as a full time starter Vasilevskiy played 50 games. He put up a 2.61 goals against average and saved .917% of the shots he faced.

If you’ve been paying attention you will realize all of these numbers we’ve seen, they’re pretty similar. Based on these numbers, can we predict what Samsonov will do in his first season? No! Obviously. He could have a GAA of anything from the lows two’s to the high two’s with a save percentage of anything from the mid 92’s to low 90’s.

But looking around, if Samsonov could replicate what the three guys we talked about did, he would have a very good first full season as a starting goaltender at the highest level. So what would be a good season for Samsonov?

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A 2.55-2.62 GAA and a save percentage of .915-.920%. Anything more than that would be a great first full season.

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