Washington Capitals: How Is John Carlson Doing In The Early Norris Trophy Race

I have been saying for at least a year now that Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson is bound to win a Norris Trophy someday. In the past three seasons, he has been one of the higher scoring defensemen. His scoring has increased in all of those three seasons going from 68 points in 17-18, then to 70 points in 18-19 then all the way up to 75 points in just 69 games last season.

Recently, that has been what the Norris Trophy means. How many points did (insert name here) score? Defense in “the best defenseman award” has kind of fallen down on the list of needs when handing out this award. A lot of the time when discussing this award there are arguments to just make this award the offensive defenseman of the year then make another award for best defensive defenseman of the year.

That however is not the case, we have just one award and points and scoring are a huge factor if not the only factor for some.

If scoring is a huge factor then John Carlson should once again be in the discussion. As we speak he ranks fifth in scoring for defensemen having 12 points in 13 games. If scoring was the only factor then Carlson would be top five.

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But scoring isn’t the only thing to think about and the top five in scoring is obviously not the top favorites for the award right now. Carlson is top three in odds behind Tampa Bay’s Victor Hedman and Colorado’s Cale Makar. He is just above Vegas’ Shea Theodore and Carolina’s Dougie Hamilton to round out the top five.

Just about one month into the season I was curious to see how Carlson was doing compared to other candidates. In my opinion, the eye test has been iffy to be honest. Carlson has not looked like a Norris candidate since December or early January of 2020. His iffy play can also be a reason he has dropped from being the favorite to win the award back in November to now being third.

So if the eye test isn’t great, can his numbers save him? Well, looking at the stats, it’s not great news for Carlson. Compared to the other four candidates, he has plenty of catching up to do. Let’s look at some of the stats that I consider important and you can be the judge.

Corsi %

Makar – 61.61%

Hamilton – 56.37%

Theodore – 53.93%

Hedman – 50.90%

Carlson – 45.88%

Scoring Chance %

Makar – 60.61%

Theodore – 60%

Hamilton – 53.70%

Hedman – 47.21%

Carlson – 45.35%

High Danger Attempts %

Makar – 68.52%

Theodore – 59.38%

Hamilton – 56.45%

Hedman – 48.53%

Carlson – 47.62%

Expected Goals For %

Makar – 66.26%

Hamilton – 55.50%

Theodore – 54.48%

Hedman – 49.54%

Carlson – 44.70%

I know and can surely understand when some people see these kinds of numbers they will roll their eyes and ignore all of them. And yes, some numbers can easily tell some fibs. Some of these numbers depends on how teams are playing and that is what can inflate or deflate some of these numbers.

While some numbers can fib, in my opinion they don’t flat out lie. So far Carlson is lucky to be in this discussion. He has a long way to go to catch up to the favorites. Watching him so far this year he’s been pretty average.

When Carlson is on the ice the opposing team is getting more shots, more scoring chances, more high danger attempts and it’s expected that the other team will score more goals than his team. If you want to make it simple, Carlson is currently -2 in 5v5 scoring. He is the only one of the top five Norris candidates to be a minus. The next lowest is +2 which is Hedman.

Luckily for Carlson, it is early. We saw what he could do for two or two and a half months last season when he was the clear Norris front-runner and even in some MVP discussions. We still have a ways to go. There is still over forty games to be played.

If Carlson is in fact bound to win a Norris Trophy in his career, if things continue to go the way they are right now, he doesn’t even look like he belongs in the conversation this season.