Washington Capitals Playoffs: Observations From The First Two Games
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are in full swing now. Or they are for the Washington Capitals anyways. It’s a different story for Canada. We are now two games into the series vs the Boston Bruins. It’s tied 1-1 with the series shifting to Boston.
It’s been a pretty close series if you’re talking about the score. I think you could make a legitimate argument both teams could have a 2-0 lead. Washington more so thanks to having leads later in both games. The series is in fact 1-1 however. There have been several things to notice early on in this series. As the series changes location I think now would be a good time to look at some of the things I think has stood out.
This Series Will Hurt
We are just two games into the series and there has been plenty of guys going down their teams tunnel. To name just a few, Vitek Vanecek, T.J. Oshie, Nick Jensen and Lars Eller have all walked that painful walk on the Caps side. Bergeron took a trip down the walk way in Game 1 and Marchand looked very uncomfortable during game 2 at one point.
If you want to win this series you are going to have to want to go through some pain, unfortunately. A lot of the time you can look back at series like this and say this is the kind of series you need to win to win the Stanley Cup. If you win a series like this confidence has to be high.
That being said, you do have to actually get through the series without too many injuries. The Capitals were a banged up team coming into the playoffs and hopefully, they don’t have many lingering injuries right now.
Lars Eller also left game 2 and did not return, making the center position even thinner. It was reported Connor McMichael was recalled to be a “black ace”. Maybe he could draw in if Eller is unable to play Game 3 and beyond? Or maybe Evgeny Kuznetsov could make a return. Any way you look at it Eller’s injury could prove to be huge.
The Bruins Have Been The Better Team…On Paper
Luckily for the Washington Capitals, games are not played on paper. So far this series the Capitals have a 46.02 Corsi%, they are on the right side of the scoring chances having a percentage of 50.49%, however they have a 32.43% high danger attempts percentage and all that equals a 35.83% xGF percentage.
When it’s in ink it looks like the Bruins have dominated this series. I would argue the Capitals look pretty good to this point. The Capitals have led for 25:49 of this series while the Bruins have led for just 9:47. The score has been tied for 92:44.
If you know me or have followed me for a while you will know I enjoy watching some advanced stats. While I do look at these numbers a lot and put a lot of stock in these stats I also point out that you can’t always look at these and say they tell the story exactly. I would say they do not tell the story of this series so far.
Boston has looked good so far, but the Capitals have as well. If nothing else the Caps don’t look nearly as bad as some of those numbers do. This also ties into my next observation.
Craig Anderson Has Look Good
If you forced most teams to start their third string (maybe even fourth string if you count Lundqvist) goalie it would not be good news. Anderson however, came into Game 1 and stopped 21 of 22. He then followed that up by saving 44 of 48 in Game 2. The latter coming in a losing effort, however.
Anderson has been good. That would be where I stop as I don’t believe he has had to be great. The numbers we just looked at I think would back that up. While Boston leads pretty heavily in shot attempts and high danger attempts, they are just that, attempts. The scoring chances are actually in the Capitals favor, just slightly, but in their favor nonetheless.
Anderson is making the stops which is all you care about. But even in saving 44 of 48 like he did in Game 2 he hasn’t had to stand on his head like you might think he would have to if you just saw those numbers without watching the games.
Anderson has been good. The better word I would use for Anderson’s performance so far is admirable. On this Capitals team all season he was or is a third or fourth string goalie. He has had very little playing time, and he looks like a no doubt NHL starter. Even looking better than the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
I may be in the minority here, but I don’t think he has been great or has had to be great, at least not yet. He’s just been solid. Quite frankly, that’s all you can ask for, and it’s proving to be enough, for now.
David Pastrnak Has Been Very Quiet
So far this series I have seen quite a bit of Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. The third and final part of the “perfection line” has been a bit harder to find. He does have two points in two games both are assists. They are both primary assists as well.
He is goalless though, and that’s where you expect a guy like Pastrnak to hurt you. I personally haven’t seen too many great chances from him yet. But when you look at his advanced stats I would say it’s just a matter of time.
Pastrnak has a 67.17 CF%, a 57.69 SCF%, an 80% HDCF%, a 75.49 xGF% and finally he has 8 individual scoring chances which is tied for the team lead.
“Pasta” is going to be a hard player to hold down for an entire series. It’s going to be even harder if his numbers look like that. I would say he’s been pretty quiet so far, but if the Capitals can’t bring down some of those numbers, he may not be quiet for long.
The Bruins Are Dominating The Dot
Faceoffs are not just a way to get the play started or restarted, they are a very important part of the game. We all saw that in game number one when the Bruins won a faceoff and Jake DeBrusk fired a shot past Vanecek. That tied the game and also knocked Vancek out of the game.
That play came in the first period, a period in which the Bruins won 21 of 26 draws. The Capitals did recover in the next two periods, they won 58% of the faceoffs in the second period and 55% in the third. They won just 1 of 4 in overtime in Game 1.
The Bruins rebounded themselves in Game 2. They won 15 of 23 in the first period, 11 of 19 in the second, and 14 of 22 in the third before winning the one and only faceoff in OT. In total, in Game 2 Boston won 41-65 faceoffs, or 63%.
So far the Capitals are winning just 38.5% of the faceoffs. Washington was ranked 22nd in the league at faceoffs this season winning 49.2% of their draws. Boston was ranked number one at 55.3%.
You never know what could be the difference in a series. I remember in a series vs the New York Rangers several years ago, overtime in Game 7. The Capitals lost a faceoff in the defensive zone, a hard shot came from the blue line and Derek Brassard put in a rebound. All off of a faceoff.
light. More. Washington Capitals Playoffs: Bruins win Game 2 in overtime
It may not be the first thing you look at, but it is still very important. It may just be unfixable as well. The Capitals are not a great faceoff team, and they are going against the best. We’ll see how this one plays out.