Washington Capitals: 2015 Free Agency Primer

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Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency officially begins at noon on July 1^st. The Washington Capitals do not plan to be as busy as they were last season when they started free agency off with a huge bang by signing blue liners Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen, but they should still be fairly active because they must upgrade their team and fill several roster spots.

Washington Capitals Forwards

Washington Capitals Defensemen

Brooks Orpik
John Carlson
Karl Alzner
Matt Niskanen
Dmitry Orlov
Nate Schmidt

Washington Capitals Goaltenders

Philipp Grubauer
Justin Peters

Next: Restricted Free Agents

Washington Capitals Restricted Free Agents

Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The Capitals had 10 players up for restricted free agency. So far, the Washington Capitals have re-signed Schmidt and re-signed Grubauer. They declined to extend qualifying offers to goaltender Edward Pasquale, goaltender Brandon Anderson and defenseman Patrick Wey. They extended qualifying offers to goaltender Braden Holtby, forward Marcus Johansson, forward Evgeny Kuznetsov, forward Chris Brown and forward Stanislav Galiev. Let’s take a look at each of the restricted free agents, their likely role and a conservative estimate of the contract that they’ll get.

Holtby is by far the most important restricted free agent that the Washington Capitals have. Everything that they do for the rest of this off-season will most likely be based off of what they do with Holtby. The Capitals offered him a qualifying offer of at least $2,000,000 because that was the minimum one required. They have talked to him about a long-term extension. My guess is if the extension gets done, it will be a four to six year deal with an average annual value (or cap hit) from $5,000,000 to $6,000,000.
Johansson is probably the must unpredictable restricted free agent as far as what he will receive. It depends on how much the Washington Capitals value him. Do they think he’s a long-term solution as a top six or at worst top nine forward? My guess is he’ll get at least $4,000,000 a year regardless of the term. He’s proven he’s a very capable top six forward and now the Washington Capitals have to pay him like one. If the Caps can’t get him to agree to a short-term deal and he wants a long-term deal, he could be on his way out.
Kuznetsov is a restricted free agent after his up and down rookie season that saw him finish very strong. I think a two to three year deal with an average annual value (or cap hit) of $2,000,000 would work out perfectly for both sides.
Stanislav Galiev is someone who will likely get around $700,000 as an average annual value. He finally fits in to the future plans for the Capitals (at least for now) and I expect him to get a good shot at a fourth line role to open next season.
Chris Brown will most likely be competing for the extra forward role. He will likely get around $850,000 per season.

Let’s call that $14,000,000 committed to those guys and call it even. Going by General Fanager, that leaves $4,321,541 of cap space. Obviously, the Washington Capitals would like to create more cap space. Speaking of which…

Next: Who Could Be Traded?

Washington Capitals: Trade Candidates

Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

If the Capitals want to create cap space, they’ll have to move some of their contracts. Let’s look at some of the cap dump candidates. These will be ranked in terms of overall value, or what the Caps could get in return for them without including a draft pick or prospect.

If the Capitals want to add a top six forward, they could swap Johansson and a higher (first three rounds) draft pick for a potentially better and most likely less expensive top six forward option. Johansson has the highest trade value of the Caps roster players for several reasons. First of all, he’s a proven at worst slightly above average top six forward. Secondly, he’s still very young and will likely be entering the prime of his career soon. Thirdly, if a team is in the process of a rebuild, he could play a role in it.
The Caps could also trade Troy Brouwer. Let me start off by saying that I have nothing against the Caps having Brouwer. He will give you good boxcar stats and his cap hit of $3,666,667 is reasonable. Any team that’s looking for top six forward depth or a really good checking line wing should be interested in him. Brouwer is definitely not a cap dump because he is still a productive player and his salary for the most part matches his performance. However, considering that Capitals General Manager Brian MacLellan has stated that he wants to get Tom Wilson and Andre Burakovsky more playing time, it would seem logical that the Caps are looking to make Wilson their third line right wing and let Burakovsky be a top six forward. If the Caps want to add another top six forward, Brouwer’s presence is a bit counter-productive to that.
If the Caps could trade any contract right now, I’m willing to bet it would be Brooks Laich’s. This isn’t to say that Laich isn’t a productive player. He’s an effective bottom six wing who is an expert penalty killer. However, his $4,500,000 cap hit is simply too much to justify his spot in the lineup. Unless the Caps package Laich with a 2016 first or second round pick or eat a decent portion of his contract, they’re not getting much value in return for him. However, they would be done with his contract. Laich has a modified no trade clause, but the Arizona Coyotes could be a decent fit for him, as could any number of teams who need helping reaching the salary cap floor.
The Caps could look to get rid of Jason Chimera to give them a bit of cap relief. Chimera has a $2,000,000 cap hit through next season and has a limited no-trade clause. Again, teams close to the cap floor or teams looking to upgrade their bottom six could be interested in Chimera. Hard to think that the Washington Capitals would get back anything of value for him though.

If you’re looking for a list of prospects that the Washington Capitals could move to upgrade their roster via a trade, we have you covered.

Next: Unrestricted Free Agents

Washington Capitals: Their Own Unrestricted Free Agents

Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Capitals have a total of 15 unrestricted free agents. We’re just going to talk about the four biggest ones though. This list in order of most valuable to the Washington Capitals considering what position they filled with the team.

Eric Fehr is the most valuable of the Washington Capitals unrestricted free agents in terms of how hard it would be to replace him in the role that he is in (third line center). The Capitals third line center without Fehr is most likely Jay Beagle. Beagle is much better suited for a fourth line role. Fehr should get roughly a three year deal and he’s probably worth a maximum average annual value of $3,000,000. I expect him to return to the Washington Capitals.
Joel Ward will not be that difficult for the Caps to replace, as they have guys like Tom Wilson who are ready to step up and fill Ward’s role of checking line right wing. He is looking for a four year deal while the Caps are likely looking to go only two years. He could return to the Caps if he can’t find that four year deal, but apparently he has suitors.
In terms of the role he played, Mike Green will not be that difficult to replace. His production, however, will be very hard for the Capitals to replace. It will be hard for the Capitals to say goodbye to Green, but perhaps it is for the best that the two part ways.
Tim Gleason, who the Caps traded for at the trade deadline, could return to the Caps as they do need a seventh defenseman. However, they will likely consider other options before turning to Gleason.

Next: Free Agency Targets

Washington Capitals: Free Agency Targets

Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Capitals will need to fill the roles of third line center, potentially top six forward, and seventh defenseman in free agency and trades. We have no idea who the Caps will pursue in the seventh defenseman role, but as long as Nate Schimdt and Dmitry Orlov remain on the third pairing, I don’t have an issue with who they sign.

Third Line Center Options

Probably the best option available other than Eric Fehr is Brad Richards. I wrote more about the obvious fit here, but the Washington Capitals should pursue him regardless of whether or not they re-sign Fehr. Signing Richards would give them lots of flexibility and options, not to mention depth.

Other potential options include:

Matt Cullen of the Nashville Predators would be a decent option. Cullen is coming off a 25 point season playing 13 minutes per game. He had a $3,500,000 average annual value. I would expect him to take a discount to play for a contender. He’s familiar with Trotz, so that might help his chances of signing with the Caps. He took 331 face-offs and won 181 of them.
Another bargain option could be Shawn Horcoff, formerly of the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers. Horcoff is coming off a 29 point season for the Stars, playing in 13 minutes per game. He took 363 face-offs and won 185 of them. He’s coming off a deal with an AAV of $5,500,000, so he will clearly be taking a discount to play in the NHL at this point. The Stars were slightly better possession wise with him on the ice as he had a 0.73% CorsiFor% relative to his teammates.
I really hope the Washington Capitals don’t sign this guy, but Antoine Vermette is an option. Vermette is a bit overrated. He gets way too much attention for a guy who simply doesn’t drive possession.

The Capitals would probably be better off pursuing one in a trade. Personally, I like Marcus Kruger. I wrote more about him here. He’s a restricted free agent for the Chicago Blackhawks.

Top Six Forward

There are several top six forward options for the Washington Capitals in free agency. Are they better off seeking one in a trade? Maybe. But as we’ve seen so far this off-season, trade prices are pretty crazy, so they should at least kick the tires on some free agent options.

Justin Williams of the Los Angeles Kings is well known for being clutch and for leading three teams to Stanley Cups. I’m not a huge fan of him unless he comes at a reasonable discount. He’d be a mighty fine second line option, or third line option if the Caps have enough faith in Tom Wilson to give him a top six forward spot.
I really like P.A. Parenteau. He would be an upgrade over Troy Brouwer on the second line and I think he’s the kind of guy who could flourish with Kuznetsov and Johansson. Of course, adding him would most likely mean the departure of Brouwer. But if the Caps are looking to add a value, Parenteau could be a huge bargain.
Erik Cole is another free agent option who could help the Caps. He’s a veteran guy who has consistently been a pretty good player in the NHL. Could be a nice fit on the Caps second line.
I’m not a huge Martin St. Louis fan, but I think the Washington Capitals might kick the tires on him. Seems to be the veteran type of guy that Barry Trotz would like.
Michael Frolik, formerly of the Winnipeg Jets, would be another very solid option. He has Stanley Cup experience as he used to be a member of the Chicago Blackhawks.

Seventh Defenseman Options

The Washington Capitals would probably like to add someone with size and experience, seeing as how Schmidt and Orlov are both on the smaller and less physical ends of the spectrum. Also, I would think that they would pursue a right handed shot, since Orlov and Schmidt are both left-handed.

Adam Pardy is left handed, but he is a huge guy (6’4″ 220 pounds). He played for the Winnipeg Jets in 2014-2015. He has a slight negative effect on his team’s puck possession.
The Caps are very familiar with Steven Oleksy. Worth noting though is that he was the Hershey Bears captain last season. I think Hershey would like to keep him in that role if possible. Always important to keep the relationship between AHL and NHL affiliates running smoothly.
Another familiar face: Tyson Strachan. I’d prefer the Caps go with a younger option like Strachan as opposed to an older, slower player should they choose to turn to free agency to find an extra defenseman.

Diving Into The Bargain Bin

The Capitals desperately need to add some scoring depth. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them swan dive into the bargain bin and take a shot on one (or more) of these candidates.

David Booth has always had a lot of potential and is very skilled. Unfortunately, he can’t stay healthy. When he can, he’s on the Maple Leafs. If he accepts a cheap one year deal, the Caps could do far worse than seeing if Booth has anything left in the tank.
Tyler Kennedy would be a really nice addition to the Caps bottom six. If the Caps could get rid of Chimera and in effect replace him with Kennedy for the same salary (probably even a little bit cheaper), that would be a nice upgrade for the Caps.
He will likely get better offers, but I would love for the Washington Capitals to add Blake Comeau. He did quite well for the Penguins last season. If healthy, he could be a stellar addition to the Caps bottom six and he has proven he’s a capable top six forward in an emergency.
I’ll acknowledge the pink elephant in the room. Yes, Alexander Semin was bought out. Yes, I would be in favor of bringing him back if he can prove his wrist is healthy. However, no more than a one year $2,000,000 deal.
Mark Arcobello played for four NHL teams last season. Despite that, he was a positive possession player and even did very well for the Arizona Coyotes. However, for whatever reason, the Coyotes didn’t submit Arcobello a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. Arcobello, if nothing else, has proven that he can score. The Caps need scoring depth. The fit is quite obvious.

Next: Trade Targets!

Washington Capitals: Trading For A Top Six Forward!

Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

The Caps are aggressively pursuing a top six forward to upgrade their roster. As I said before, the free agency market is rather weak. Therefore, the Caps will most likely upgrade courtesy of a trade. We’ve written a lot about trade candidates, so here are the ones that we’ve written about (and some that we haven’t)!

Kessel

Without a doubt, the biggest name that the Washington Capitals have been tied to is Toronto Maple Leafs wing Phil Kessel. Kessel is an immensely talented forward, and to say otherwise is pretty silly. Like Ovechkin, he’s a high volume shooter. So why’s he a fit for the Caps? Because he’s precisely what the second line needs. However, there’s an issue: he’d cost a lot.

Most of the deals that we looked at tend to follow the same format; 1st Round Pick Young NHL Roster Player Top Young Prospect – Editor In Leaf

And rightfully so because he is really good. Goal scoring is at a premium in the NHL these days. Kessel scores goals. Do the math. He has a cap hit of $8,000,000 a season through 2021-2022.

Oshie

Another popular name is T.J. Oshie, who the Blues are allegedly listening to offers for. He’s not exactly what the Washington Capitals need, but he would be an upgrade to what they currently have.

Sharp

The best fit for the Washington Capitals is most likely Patrick Sharp. Despite aging, his shot generation numbers are very impressive and he shows signs of a bounce-back season after a rough season in 2014-2015.

Vrbata

Another great fit for the Caps would be Radim Vrbata of the Vancouver Canucks. However, it is not likely that Vancouver will move him because they just cleared some cap space, which would be the primary motivation in trading Vrbata. If they’re selling him, the Caps should be very interested.

Okposo

Could the Capitals turn to a division rival in their pursuit for a top six forward? Kyle Okposo could be a nice fit for the Caps, particularly because of his cap hit.

Eriksson

If the Capitals want a huge potential bargain on the trade market, Boston Bruins forward Loui Eriksson could be a nice fit. The Bruins are clearly in sell mode, so perhaps the Caps and Bruins could revisit an old trade proposal: Brouwer (plus a mid to late 2016 draft pick) for Eriksson.

Hartnell

This is a new one. The Columbus Blue Jackets, while they did just trade for Brandon Saad, desperately need to improve their blue line. Problem: they have very little cap space to do so. If I were Columbus, I’d be shopping Hartnell and my other relatively high priced forwards to see what I could get for them. Hartnell would be a nice fit on the Caps first forward line, acting as a modern day Mike Knuble. I hate Hartnell, but man I’d LOVE him on the Caps. No idea what it would cost to get him though, or even if he’s available.

Another Bruin

Going down the “potential bargain” route again, the Bruins could be interested in moving someone like Reilly Smith. He’s more a third line wing, but he has been slightly underutilized by Boston. I think he could be a solid second line guy.

CREDIT: Own The Puck

He has a $3,425,000 cap hit through the next two seasons. I’d probably prefer him to Troy Brouwer. Like Hartnell, I don’t have the faintest clue what it would take to get Smith, but I like him.

Doan

Shane Doan of the Arizona Coyotes seems to me to be the kind of guy that Barry Trotz loves. He’s physical, he plays very solid defense and he tends to be viewed as a “character guy”. He’s also never made it to a Stanley Cup final. He could be very open on to be trading to the Caps. A Laich + a 2016 draft pick (probably a third or a second) might be a decent starting point for a Doan trade.

Yakupov

If the Caps really want to go for a huge bargain, I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded for Nail Yakupov of the Edmonton Oilers. I wrote more about him here. A Brouwer for Yakupov swap would make sense, though I think one side needs to add more. To be frank, I’m not even sure which side does at this point. The Caps would be wise to at least check in on Yakupov though. Lots of talent and he’s still extremely young.

As the Washington Capitals kick the tires of the trade market and as the off-season progresses, stay tuned to Stars and Sticks for constant updates and analysis!

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