NHL Goalie Power Rankings: Price, Rask, Holtby Among Elite

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Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

It has been proven time and time again that in order to win the NHL, you must have a goaltender who is at least “good”. Complicating this issue is that goalies tend to be hard to predict since goalies tend to go through hot streaks and cold streaks. Goalies can be really good one year and awful the next. Mike Smith and Jim Carey are excellent examples of just how quickly NHL goalies can decline.

NHL Power Rankings: The Unproven Ones

There are several goalies who will start in the NHL this year who will look to prove themselves as legitimate NHL starters. To be fair to them and to be fair to the rest of the starting goalies, I’ve decided to put these goalies in a completely separate category. They don’t deserve to be compared to more experienced goalies at this point in their career.

Jake Allen of the St. Louis Blues figures to be getting more starts this year than he has in previous years. He’s a talented, relatively young (25 years old) goalie, but he has a huge hurdle to overcome: Brian Elliot. Though he has just 58 games of experience, his 92.01% even strength save percentage in 37 games last season and 92.45% ES save percentage in six playoff games suggest that he could be a starting goalie in the NHL. However, as long as Elliot is with the Blues, Allen faces an uphill battle. He should still start roughly 30 games.
The Buffalo Sabres made a bold decision by paying an expensive price for Robin Lehner. The Sabres haven’t had a franchise goalie since Ryan Miller. While Lehner hasn’t delivered so far in his career, he has the upside to be a legitimate NHL starter. The 24-year-old goalie has 79 NHL games under his belt. His 91.93% even strength save percentage ranks 33rd among 45 goalies with at least 3,482 minutes at even strength since 2011. It’s hard to get a good read on Lehner because he’s still young and hasn’t gotten a chance to really prove himself, but the Sabres are handing him the keys to the franchise nonetheless.
Cam Talbot of the Edmonton Oilers is by far the most intriguing name on this list. He has only played in 59 NHL games, but his 93.32% even strength save percentage and 93.65% even strength adjusted save percentage are very attractive. He has made the most of the opportunities handed to him thus far. This season, he’ll have to prove that he’s for real because he will be Edmonton’s go-to guy in net, something that he has never been in his career.
Petr Mrazek of the Detroit Red Wings could be Detroit’s starter in 2015-16. Even if he isn’t, he figures to get a fair bit of playing time, as he had a 92.38% even strength save percentage and 92.8% even strength adjusted save percentage. Both of those numbers are above average. He has just 47 games of NHL experience, but he’ll definitely challenge Jimmy Howard for the starting job.
Michael Hutchinson figures to “plan B” for the Winnipeg Jets, as they seem to be going with Ondrej Pavelec as their primary starter in net. Hutchinson will likely get roughly 20-30 NHL starts next season. Hutchinson played in 41 NHL games in 2014-15, putting together an even strength save percentage of 92.8%.
Martin Jones will be San Jose’s starting goalie in 2015-16 after two seasons of being Jonathan Quick‘s backup in Los Angeles. He’s hard to get a read on because in 34 NHL games, at times he’s been really good (94.67% even strength save percentage in 2013-14) and at times he’s been not so good (91.57% even strength save percentage in 2014-15). We’ll find it what he really is in 2015-16 and the next few years.

Next: Tier 6: The Worst Of The Bunch

CREDIT: War On Ice

NHL Goalie Power Rankings: The Worst Of The Bunch

Cam Ward has been the worst regular starting goalie over the past three seasons. It’s hard to believe that he led the Hurricanes to a Stanley Cup just nine years ago. His 91.44% even-strength save percentage is the worst among the NHL goalies who figure to be starters for their team. His 92.00% even-strength adjusted save percentage is also the worst.

Ondrej Pavelec is coming off by far the best season of his career. In 50 regular season games for the Jets in 2014-15, Pavelec sported a 93% even-strength save percentage and a 93.74% even-strength adjusted save percentage. Both were by a significant margin the best of his career. However, one-year sample sizes for goalies can be deceiving. His three-year sample size puts him among the worst in the NHL. His 91.59% even-strength save percentage and 92.36% even-strength adjusted save percentage both place him as the second worst goalie in the NHL over the past three seasons. Is he for real? Perhaps. But he hasn’t really proven himself. That’s something he’ll look to do in 2015. He could be a nice buy-low target in fantasy, but tread carefully and have a plan B!

Ryan Miller is a perfect example of a goaltender whose reputation outweighs his production. He has been the third worst goalie in the NHL over the past three years when you look at his even-strength save percentage (91.84%) and the sixth worst judging by even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.73%). The reason I have him here? He’s aging and he’s already declining.

Karri Ramo of the Calgary Flames figures to be a part of Calgary’s goalie rotation. However, he shouldn’t be trusted too much because while he is a respectable backup and probably worthy of being an NHL starter somewhere, Hiller is clearly better. Ramo has the fourth lowest even-strength save percentage (91.85%) and seventh worst even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.85%) over the past three seasons.

Mike Smith of the Arizona Coyotes had an awful season in 2014-15. Usually, I’d overlook it. However, there’s the concern about his age: he’s 33. That’s a bad age to be if you’re an NHL goalie. Plus, he has been mostly trending downwards since 2011-2012. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 25th in even-strength save percentage (92.03%) and 22nd in even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.86%).

Next: Tier 5: The Fine

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NHL Goalie Power Rankings: The Fine

Jaroslav Halak has been a decent NHL goalie. He’s proven that while he usually can’t be relied on to win you games that you don’t deserve to win, he’ll more often than not keep you from losing games you ought to win. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 23rd in even-strength save percentage (92.18%) and 21st in even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.90%). It’s worth noting that he is 30 years old.

Brian Elliot of the St. Louis Blues has been, if nothing else, consistent. Every season since 2010-2011, he has had an even strength save percentage of at least 92%. His even-strength save percentages by season since the beginning of the lockout season have been within .25% of each other. That’s impressive. He’s not great, but he’s consistent. Over the past three seasons, his even-strength save percentage ranks 15th (92.50%) and his even-strength adjusted save percentage ranks 25th (92.73%). He’s 30 years old, so that’s a red flag.

Kari Lehtonen will be a part of Dallas’s rather expensive “ride whichever goalie is hot” strategy in 2015-16. He had a down year in 2014-15, which is concerning considering that he’ll be turning 32 in November. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 24th in even-strength save percentage (92.15%) and 16th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.04%). If I had to bet, I’d say he gets the most starts of the Stars tandem (or at least he ought to). However, I most likely see them splitting starts.

Antti Niemi is a goalie who has been fine over the past three seasons, but it’s worth noting that he is now 32 years old. He will likely split starts with Lehtonen for the Stars in 2015-16. Over the past three seasons, he has the 21st highest even-strength save percentage (92.29%) and the fourth lowest even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.71%). Which one of Lehtonen and Niemi will get the most starts? Flip a coin, that’ll give you roughly the same chances of being right as I do.

Eddie Lack has done well with the Vancouver Canucks (especially in 2014-15), but this season he’ll be looking to prove himself as a starting goaltender with the Carolina Hurricanes. He’s certainly an upgrade over Cam Ward. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 22nd in even-strength save percentage (92.24%) and 17th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.01%). He gets bonus points because he’s just 27 years old.

Next: Tier 4: The Average To Above Average

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NHL Goalie Power Rankings: The Average To Above Average

Frederik Andersen of the Anaheim Ducks is young and very talented. He has the potential to be something special, but thus far hasn’t been too special for the Ducks (though he’s certainly above average). In 105 NHL games over the past three seasons, he has the 17th best even-strength save percentage (92.37%) and the 20th best even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.92%). He’s a perfect goalie for the Ducks – cheap and good enough to put Anaheim in a position to win most nights.

Marc-Andre Fleury is the quintessential NHL goalie of this category. Is he good enough to usually not cost you games? Yes. Can he be counted on to put his team on his back for extended periods of time and still win? Probably not. Which is fine, if you consider that Corey Crawford and Ben Bishop were the two goalies who made the Stanley Cup finals last season. Over the past three seasons, he ranks 20th in even-strength save percentage (92.32%) and 15th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.09%). He’ll be turning 31 in November, so keep that in mind.

Devan Dubnyk of the Minnesota Wild proved for the first time in his career that he can be a very good starting goalie in the NHL. However, even when you take his clear outlier 2013-2014 season out of the equation, he’s still an above-average goalie. He’ll have to prove that last year was not a fluke. Over the past three NHL seasons, Dubnyk has the 20th best even-strength save percentage (92.32%) and the 19th best even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.95%). I like his chances of replicating his numbers from last season (over the full season) because he’s just 29 years old.

Semyon Varlamov has struggled with consistency (and injuries), but when he’s on his game, he’s a borderline elite goalie. Sadly, he’s not on his game enough to be considered in the upper echelon of goaltenders. Still, a very good goalie. Also, it’s hard to believe this, but he’s only 27 years old. Feels like he’s been around forever, hasn’t it? Over the past three NHL seasons, Varlamov has the 18th best even-strength save percentage (92.36%) and the 14th best even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.24%). He’s done quite well considering he tends to face a lot of shots.

Jonathan Quick of the Los Angeles Kings represents my cut off point for this tier and the next. He is a talented goalie, but he just hasn’t done quite enough to get into the next tier. He tends to get a bit overrated because of his impressive playoff performances, but when you look at the numbers, you can’t deny that he’s not as good as you probably think he is. Chalk that up to an awesome Kings team that tends to not allow many shots on goal (second fewest shots against per 60 minutes at even strength). Over the past three NHL seasons, he’s played in 202 NHL games (including the playoffs). He ranks 16th in even-strength save percentage (92.43%) and ranks 13th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.28%). He’ll turn 30 next January.

Next: Tier 3: The Better Than Above Average But Not Quite Quasi-Elite

CREDIT: War-On-Ice

NHL Goalie Power Rankings: Tier 3

Pekka Rinne deserves to be in the third tier of NHL goalies. While he had an outstanding season in 2014-15, it’s important to realize that he’s 32. That’s the magic number for goalies, as historically, that’s when their decline tends to gradually start. He should still be quite good in 2015-16, especially if the Predators continue to suppress shot attempts against. Rinne has faced the ninth fewest shots against per game at even strength over the past three seasons. In 137 NHL games over the past three seasons, he ranks 14th in even-strength save percentage (92.61%). I’d usually be worried about him having the third worst even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.67%), but the Predators do a fantastic job of limiting high-danger scoring chances against. They did that even when they were bad, so Rinne’s primary weakness is masked by his team.

Roberto Luongo is turning 36 this season. His decline will occur at some point. However, that has yet to happen. As a casual Canucks fan, I’ll keep believing in the power of Robby Lu until he gives me a reason to not do so. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks 11th in even-strength save percentage (92.75%) and 18th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (92.96%).

Corey Crawford, for somewhat obvious reasons (two Cups), tends to be overrated among NHL goalies. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t very good. Just not elite. Simply put, I’d consider Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp to be larger reasons for the two Stanley Cups than Crawford. Over the past three NHL seasons, Crawford has played in 208 games (that includes playoffs). He ranks ninth in even-strength save percentage (92.81%) and 11th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.34%).

Jonathan Bernier of the Toronto Maple Leafs is better than most people think. That’s what playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs will do to you. He has faced the second most even strength shots per 60 minutes over the past three years of all the starting goalies (31.59). Despite that, he has flourished. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks 12th in even-strength save percentage (92.72%) and eighth in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.45%).

Ben Bishop of the Tampa Bay Lightning is a very tall and athletic goalie. He’s not elite, but thanks to the team around him (sixth fewest shots against per 60 minutes at even strength at 27.76), that doesn’t really matter. Over the past three NHL seasons, Bishop ranks 13th in even-strength save percentage (92.70%) and ninth in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.41%).

Next: Tier 2: The Quasi-Elite

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NHL Goalie Power Rankings: Tier 2 – The Quasi-Elite

Here come the big guns. You could make a pretty solid argument that each of these goalies should be considered to be elite, but they fall just outside of the elite tier. Keep in mind that elite, by my definition, means that you’re among the five best in the NHL.

Jonas Hiller of the Calgary Flames, despite turning 33 years old in February and already beginning a gradual decline, is borderline elite. Over the past three NHL seasons, he has the 10th best even-strength save percentage (92.78%) and the seventh best even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.45%). Why is he quasi-elite and not elite? Well, first off, his numbers just aren’t quite good enough. Are they impressive? You bet. But they aren’t impressive enough. Also, he has faced the ninth lowest even strength shots on goal per 60 minutes among the starting goalies. I’m also slightly concerned about his age.

Steve Mason of the Philadelphia Flyers is a darn good goalie. When he’s healthy, he can consistently steal games. He’s probably the best goalie the Flyers have had over the past 15 years or so. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks seventh in even-strength save percentage (93.01%) and 10th in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.06%). He’s done that despite facing the fourth most even strength shots per sixty minutes (31.03). So why isn’t he elite? He can’t stay healthy.

Sergei Bobrovsky is probably the closest thing that you’re going to get to elite without actually being elite. Since being traded from the Flyers to the Blue Jackets, Bobrovsky has won a Vezina Trophy and the hearts of millions. He turns 27 later in September, so he’s in the prime of his career. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks fifth in even-strength save percentage (93.14%) and sixth in even-strength save percentage (93.45%). Why is he only quasi-elite? He has a bit of trouble staying healthy.

Craig Anderson is an impressive goalie when he’s healthy. I’ll give you one guess why he’s not elite. The correct answer? He can’t stay healthy. He has played in just 126 NHL games (including playoffs) over the past three seasons. For a guy who just turned 34 years old, that’s a bit concerning. Still, when he’s healthy, I’d put him as elite. But elite goalies don’t get injured all the time. Over the past three seasons, he ranks fourth in even-strength percentage (93.33%) and fifth in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.60%).

Next: Tier One: The Elite

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NHL Goalie Power Rankings: The Elite

These are, in my opinion, the five best goalies in the NHL. Each of these three goalies has done enough to prove to me that they are the best of the best. Not only that, they do it at about as consistent of a rate as you can expect from a goalie.

Coming in at number five…

Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby, despite what you might think, has been elite when you look at his last three seasons. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks eighth in even-strength save percentage (93.01%) and 12th in even-strength save percentage (93.22%). On paper, that’s not elite. However, you know what makes him elite? He faces a high number of high-danger scoring chances and that is possibly when he has been at his best. His 85.30% even strength high-danger save percentage over the past three seasons ranks third among all starting goalies, trailing two fellow elite goaltenders. His age also factors into this equation. He turns 26 later in September. He’s in the prime of his career. You know what put me over the “Holby is elite” fence? He has the highest playoff save percentage of any goalie. Ever. Yes, you read that right. When the pressure is at its highest, that’s when Holtby shines brightest. If that doesn’t make you elite, I don’t know what does.

Coming in at number four…

Cory Schneider

When one thinks of elite goaltenders, Cory Schneider does not immediately come to your mind. Which is fine, because Schneider has been quietly elite. Once you look at his stats, you wonder what he did to deserve to be on the New Jersey Devils. Over the past three NHL seasons, he ranks sixth in even-strength save percentage (93.03%) and fourth in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.65%). He’s the reason the Devils aren’t a complete waste of a team.

At this point, you could argue that any of the remaining three goalies are the best in the NHL, and you’re probably not wrong. Coming in at number three…

Henrik Lundqvist

Surprising that the ice did not collapse due to the combined eliteness of Holtby and Henrik Lundqvist. Even as a Caps fan, I can’t help but respect how consistently elite Lundqvist is. I also can’t deny that I probably have nightmares about him in elimination games because he morphs into a super elite goalie during those. Over the past three NHL seasons, Henrik has played in 208 games (though keep in mind that includes the playoffs). That would be even higher had he not gotten injured on a fluke play last season. While Henrik is already 33 years old (and turns 34 in March of 2016), Henrik is still elite despite his gradual decline beginning. You could say he’s the best goalie in the NHL if you factor in what he does during the playoffs.

Coming in at number two…

Carey Price

Yes, Carey Price had an outstanding season in 2014-15. If you’re a fan of recency bias, you’d probably say Price is the best goalie in the NHL. You could also say he is because he is just 28 years old, meaning that he still has prime years left. Over the past three NHL seasons, Price ranks second in even-strength save percentage (93.45%) and second in even-strength adjusted save percentage (93.72%).

Coming in at number one…

Tuukka Rask

Tuukka Rask is, in my humble opinion, the best goalie in the NHL. Carey Price was the best goalie in 2014-15, that’s undeniable. However, when you look at the past three seasons, Rask has been the best goalie in the NHL. He has the best even-strength save percentage (93.75%) and the best even-strength adjusted save percentage (94.12%) over the past three seasons.

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