Washington Capitals Have Flipped The Switch
There is reason to believe that the Washington Capitals have “flipped the switch” as the postseason nears.
For what seems like half of a season, one of the bigger stories surrounding the Washington Capitals has been if, or when, they would flip the switch and become the dominant team that everybody saw when the 2015-16 season began.
The only reason that this “switch” existed was because, essentially, the Capitals have had nothing to play for in quite a while. They clinched a playoff spot well before any other teams did, and even that was a foregone conclusion for months.
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Even when the Washington Capitals weren’t playing well, they were winning. They still have not lost consecutive games in regulation this year. In fact, they have not lost back-to-back in regulation in over a calendar year (playoffs included). In 2015, they lost to the New York Rangers (March 11) and the Dallas Stars (March 13) consecutively.
Ironically, the Caps’ most recent results haven’t been the best. They’ve dropped four out of the last six games, raising even more concern as the playoffs became closer and closer.
Fear not, Washington Capitals fans, because it appears that lost in the madness, the switch is now “on.”
We’re going to look at four different charts (via war-on-ice) that will hopefully alleviate your concerns. Each of these will be based on a seven-game rolling average.
Note: All statistics are prior to the Caps-Pens game on Thursday night
First up: Shots on goal.
Clearly note that starting in mid-February, the total shots on goal for the Washington Capitals began a pretty steady decline. This lasted for just about one month – basically at the exact same time as many wondered when the team would begin getting complacent.
However, while panic was in full swing as the end of March approached, the rate of shots on goal has nothing short of skyrocketed. In fact, they are now putting shots on goal at a higher rate than at any other point this season. Why aren’t the Caps scoring, then?
Well, that’s easy! Because their shooting percentage has been absolutely abysmal. Just as they begin putting rubber on net at a high rate, their S% has tanked. This, ironically, is at its very lowest all season.
Let’s just put this simply. This team has some of the top playmakers in the entire NHL, and one of the deepest teams in the league. There is just no way that this drought will last much longer.
If the Washington Capitals can start converting while continuing to put the puck towards the net at a high rate, I see no reason why this team can’t resemble their early season form in the near future.
It would be unfair to leave it at that. Besides, so what if the Caps are putting the puck on net? Isn’t it more relevant where the chances are coming from, rather than how many?
Again, we see a steep drop in high danger scoring chances starting around the beginning of March. Essentially, they weren’t getting the puck to areas of the ice with a high rate of success in terms of actually producing goals.
Around the beginning of April, that statistic has skyrocketed as well. At this current pace, their high percentage scoring chances will be back to their peak rates just as the playoffs are beginning.
If you are looking for a reason why recent models are suggesting that the Washington Capitals have a sub-50% chance to win their first round series, look no further than the month-long stretch in March where their play trended downward in many major categories.
Now, the only way for these to be long-term positive trends is if the Caps can possess the puck like a Cup-caliber team. That is exactly what they have been doing.
The Washington Capitals overall possession is also nearing its previous peak, which occurred very early on in the season. This, yet again, has seen a very sharp upward trend right when you want to see it.
Part of this is due to quality of competition as of late, but these are all very positive trends that we are seeing at just the right time.
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It is completely fair to remain concerned right now while the results aren’t what we want to see. However, almost all of the underlying numbers show that the Washington Capitals have, in fact, flipped the switch, and with that being the case, the results can only remain the same for so long.