Washington Capitals Metro Division Preview

The next team in the Washington Capitals Metropolitan Division preview is the Columbus Blue Jackets, a club that lately seems to have taken one step forward and two steps back.

A year ago today expectations were billowing for the Columbus Blue Jackets. After finally getting healthy after leading the league in man-games lost, the Jackets had finished up the 2014-2015 season a scorching 16-4-1 over their last 21 games. They made appearances in various writers Metro playoff contenders lists, with the logic being that if they could only pick up the 129 point pace they had left off with they could be dominant. After a tumultuous 2015-2016 season it’s safe to say expectations have been tempered.

And really those lofty expectations were built on a house of cards to begin with. A meager 48.9% Corsi-for and stellar .935 sv percentage at 5v5 during that 21-game stretch were harbingers of things to come. Regression hit the Blue Jackets hard as they finished with 76 points in 2015-2016, down significantly from 89 the year prior and good for last in the Metro and 27^th in the league. This was after a 0-8-0 start that saw to the firing of Todd Richards and hiring of walking cliché (but Stanley Cup winning) John Tortorella. The Jackets now find themselves in a precarious position, two seasons removed from their last playoff appearance and trending downwards.

Last Season

After the aforementioned Hindenburg of a start, the Jackets’ situation stabilized somewhat, although realistically the only place to go was up. Mainly, their .839 sv% in the first eight games rebounded to a mediocre .909. Their CF% at 5v5 actually started strong despite the losing streak, with a 52.6% that mellowed out to a below-average 48.0% over the course of the season. A -33 goal differential, 17.3% PP and 81.0% PK rounded out a season that represented a big step in the wrong direction for the Blue Jackets.

That is not to say that 2015-2016 was entirely devoid of positives for Columbus. Newly acquired Chicago cap casualty Brandon Saad had a career year with 31 goals and 53 points, tied with 27 year old Cam Atkinson for the team scoring lead. Also, 2^nd round pick Boone Jenner broke out in a big way, going 30-19-49. Nick Foligno regressed hugely in the scoring department, but led the team with a +5.3 5v5 CF% relative to his team, suggesting he was doing something right.

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More mid-season drama came in the form of the blockbuster trade of top-line center Ryan Johansen straight-up for young blueline stud Seth Jones. Jones should help to shore up a weak Columbus back end until highly touted prospect Zach Werenski arrives. In terms of gameplay, Columbus settled into a feisty style, or at least they did when playing the Caps. The on ice fireworks flew, and despite the Caps going 3-0-1 against the Jackets (with a memorable shootout loss) the games always felt highly contested.

This Offseason

Overall, this was a quiet offseason for the Blue Jackets, who are flying increasingly less under the radar when it comes to their difficult cap situation. Saddled with a shocking 7 contracts at $4.5m AAV or above, their most important move was simply re-signing Seth Jones to a super-reasonable 5-year $5.4m AAV deal. Additionally, they bought out Fedor Tyutin and Jared Boll, and swapped prospects with Toronto (Rychel for Harrington). Perhaps most dramatically, Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen went “off the board” in selecting power forward Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall at the draft, leaving Jesse Puljujärvi to fall into the laps of the Edmonton Oilers. Organizationally, the Jackets did see a major success this summer as their AHL affiliate the Lake Erie Monsters steamrolled through the Caps’ own affiliate Hershey Bears on their way to a Calder Cup victory.

Final Thoughts

Going into 2016-2017 it is hard to envision the Blue Jackets competing for a playoff spot, let alone a deep postseason run. While they do have some nice young players to build around and the fourth best prospect pool, they have also been trending in the wrong direction. While head coach Tortorella is certainly not lacking in experience, his style is controversial, and he has not led a team success in recent memory.

Next: Washington Capitals Metro Division Preview – Carolina Hurricanes

Given the competitiveness of the Metropolitan division, it would be considered a step forward if the Jackets are in playoff contention at any point when the calendar reads “2017.” However unlikely, if Vezina-winner Sergei Bobrovsky rebounds, Seth Jones fully breaks out, and prospect Werenksi and Dubois have an immediate impact, then a wildcard spot is not entirely out of the question. More probable is the scenario where the Jackets have too little depth and Tortorella’s sandpaper style is too obsolete, causing them to fall behind early and never catch up with the pack.