Washington Capitals Prospect Pyramid

Recently, Sportsnet’s Steve Dangle introduced in one of his excellent videos the concept of a “prospect pyramid.” How do the Washington Capitals prospects fit into this concept?

The idea involves placing each prospect in a team’s system into general tiers, instead of quibbling over the exact order of a bunch of players who mostly haven’t seen a single NHL game. We’re going to apply the pyramid to our own Washington Capitals in 5 tiers. Notable players omitted are Philip Grubauer and Stan Galiev, who having spent last year with the Caps are something beyond traditional prospects. First, Steve Dangle’s source video on the Toronto Maple Leafs can be found here.

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And now, the Washington Capitals prospect pyramid:

Tier 1: Jakub Vrana

You could make a strong case that Ilya Samsonov should be in this position. Or perhaps it should be a top tier of three players? Nope – this is a pyramid, and we are going to pick one player to be the pinnacle. We are defining tier one as the player most likely to make a significant impact on the Capitals in the near future.

That would be Jakub Vrana, who is the Capitals prospect most clearly bound for a meaningful NHL roster spot. Not only did he spend time in the Swedish Hockey League at a young age, but he excelled at the Capitals’ AHL affiliate Hershey Bears once reaching North America. Despite some injury troubles, Vrana put up 16 goals and 34 points in 36 games, and then helped lead the Bears to a Calder Cup finals appearance with 14 points in 21 games. Recent comments from Coach Mann suggest that the Caps would like to see his “200-foot game” improve, but that’s ok. They don’t need him at the big club this year, and significant roster uncertainty looms for 2017-2018. The door will be wide open for Vrana to seize a top-6 roster spot in the NHL and continue the Caps’ tradition of successful European forward drafting in the first round.

Tier 2: Madison Bowey, Ilya Samsonov

Our definition of second tier would be players who definitely project to be solid NHL roster players at their position. Goalies and defensemen can be late bloomers, but both Bowey and Samsonov would be considered disappointments if they don’t end up as steady NHL players. While Samsonov may have been a puzzling draft pick, it’s starting to make some sense as he’s had a strong showing on Metallurg Magnitogorsk in the KHL at the age of 19. With a .925 regular season sv% and a .916 postseason sv% in a quality professional league, Samsonov is looking promising indeed. What the Caps intend to do with him is up in the air, but one way or another the young goalie should be useful to the franchise.

Madison Bowey is a mid-sized second round pick from Winnipeg who is projected to become a top-4 defenseman in the NHL. Check all the boxes: solid offensive production (29 points), penalty killing, and steadily improvement defensive acumen. While the Caps probably want the 21 year old to have one more season to develop, it seems likely that he’ll get to skate on NHL ice at some point this year.

Tier 3: Lucas Johansen, Chandler Stephenson, Jonas Siegenthaler, Riley Barber

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Tier 3 is the players who have a good shot at playing a useful role in the NHL. Some of them might even be able to fill top-6 forward or top-4 defense positions. The WHL Kelowna Rockets’ Lucas Johansen was the Caps’ 2016 first round pick (a round where the Caps scouts seem to do no wrong). Entering his final year of juniors, the 18 year old defenseman owns a 6’2” 175lb frame and put up 49 points in 69 games last year, a huge uptick from his prior season. An NHL game is likely 2 to 4 years away, but it will be a disappointment if he doesn’t get into a Caps jersey at some point. Siegenthaler is the other defenseman in this tier. He is more of the stay-at-home variety but with a big body and good mobility. His upcoming season with the Bears will be one to watch closely, as his size and style of play could put him in contention for a spot with the big club as early as next year.

Chandler Stephenson has already seen 9 games in the NHL, in which he was held pointless. But the 22 year old has been fairly productive in the AHL, and could challenge for an outside roster spot both this year and next. And Riley Barber’s meteoric trajectory as a winger puts him in strong contention to be an absolute steal from the 6^th round. He will almost certainly get a look in the NHL this year (maybe more depending on injuries), and could end up settling in as high as top-6.

Tier 4: Nathan Walker, Christian Djoos, Liam O’Brien, Travis Boyd, Zachary Sanford, Vitek Vanecek

Tier 4 is those who have a decent shot at making the NHL but are probably longshots to be impact players. One of them, Liam O’Brien, already did make the team due to Barry Trotz’ affinity for his feisty nature during the 2014 preseason. Oddly, Brian MacLellan suggested Aussie Nathan Walker might be the most NHL ready of all Caps prospects, so he may have a serious shot at making the team as an extra forward this year.

Boyd, Sanford, Djoos and Vanecek have all shown varying degrees of improvement over time and inched closer to showing they are worthy of a spot on an NHL roster. After big 2015-2016 seasons in the AHL, Boyd (23) and Djoos (22) are probably closest to being ready for the next step. Overall, if any significant number of tier 4 players are “hits” it will bode very well for the Capitals.

Tier 5: Everyone Else.

That is not to say that none of these players have a shot at making the NHL, but rather that it is a pure bonus if any of them do.