Washington Capitals mock offseason: Scorched earth rebuild
Trading Ovechkin
Let me start off by saying I am not advocating getting rid of Ovechkin. The Caps should not be actively shopping him. He’s by far the best player in franchise history and arguably the most significant figure in Washington Capitals history. Without him, there’s a darn good chance the Caps wouldn’t be in DC.
But this is precisely why trading him might be the right move. Ovechkin has more than earned a chance to decide what he wants. If he wants to stick around for a rebuild, fantastic. You keep Ovechkin. With Ovi, the Caps always have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. He helps you win games and he puts butts in the seats. Don’t underestimate how important the latter is.
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But if he doesn’t (and who can blame him if that’s the case), Ted Leonsis owes it to him to trade him to a contender. Ovechkin desperately wants a Stanley Cup, so it’s understandable why he wouldn’t want to go through a rebuilding process.
Just about any team would be a fit for Ovi. Teams would likely scramble to create cap space if they knew he’s on the market. But because Ovechkin has a no trade clause, he likely blocks a trade to anyone who isn’t a contender.
The best possible fit for Ovi would probably be the Montreal Canadiens. He’s on record saying he’d love to play there one day. Considering the non-stop rumors about Ovechkin going to the Habs before he signed his extension, the feeling is likely mutual from Montreal. The Canadiens are obviously contenders and they might be desperate enough to trade for Ovechkin. Especially if they can’t sign Carey Price to an extension.
So what would the trade look like?
Lehkonen gives the Capitals a very promising wing to build around. Brendan Gallagher is a very underrated wing who, if healthy, can be a very valuable player. He also has a very reasonable cap hit. This is roughly the package I’d demand if I’m trading Ovechkin. A few playoff games and a demotion while injured doesn’t change the fact that he’s still a premier talent. Any trade package for Ovechkin must reflect that.
Trading Backstrom
This one is extremely painful. However, if you’re trading Ovechkin, why not trade Backstrom too? If 19 wants to stick around for a rebuild, you happily keep him. Backstrom is a franchise player who you can build a team around. If the Capitals are confident they can do a turnaround within three years, he’s a heck of a cornerstone to build a team on.
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But if Backstrom doesn’t want to stay, much like Ovi, he’s earned his right to go to a different team. Another reason why trading 19 makes sense is he likely gets you an even better package than Ovechkin. A franchise center under contract for the next three years with a very reasonable cap hit ($6.7 million) is quite valuable.
Which contender makes sense for him? Perhaps no playoff team needs a contender more than the Ottawa Senators. However, we can rule out them out because he’s due $23 million in salary over the next three seasons. The Sens are a budget team, so they’re not doing it unless they clear a ton of money. Calgary would be a good fit, but they’re already committing a ton of money to Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton and Sean Monahan.
How about the Nashville Predators? Yes, they have a terrible trade history. But this time around, the Capitals aren’t trading Filip Forsberg for Martin Erat. They’re actually getting talent this time around!
Nashville has to give up a defenseman in this trade. It’s where they have a lot of value. At this point, the Predators likely view Roman Josi, P.K. Subban and Ryan Ellis untouchable (and rightfully so). Ekholm would give the Capitals a very nice piece for their blue line, which is losing at least one member (and potentially two).
That’s a hefty price for Backstrom, but he’s worth it. The Johansen swap is logical because 19 is better than him and signed long-term. But Ry-Jo isn’t too far behind Backstrom as far as production. The Washington Capitals would have a strong 1-2 punch of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Johansen for the foreseeable future. That’s a pretty nice foundation.
What About Holtby?
Braden Holtby is the safest of the Washington Capitals current core. He’s under contract for the next three years and he’s shown he’s capable of carrying the team for extended stretches. Yes, Holtby stunk in the postseason, but the long-term sample size suggests the Caps have an elite goalie. I’ll take the bigger sample size over the much smaller one everyday.
However, the Capitals should at least explore trading Holtby if they want to do a full rebuild. He could net them a huge return, potentially even larger than Backstrom’s. There are some very desperate teams out there who need goaltending. Washington should wait until a team comically overpays because eventually, someone will. But who might they be?
How about the Calgary Flames? They already need to add two goaltenders this offseason. With the free agency market looking bleak, the Flames likely have to add someone via a trade. Holtby would put an end to their goaltending revolving door.
The Dallas Stars just gave up a draft pick for Ben Bishop‘s negotiating rights, so they’re likely out. Don’t count out the Winnipeg Jets, who might be just desperate enough to trade for a franchise goalie.
A huge dark horse could be the Montreal Canadiens. This would only occur if they can’t extend Carey Price. But if you’re going to lose a Vezina Trophy winner, why not replace him with another one? However, if made now, this trade has to include Price. The Washington Capitals could always flip him immediately to a goaltending needy team, but this likely complicates things a bit.
Trades galore
This starts with every upcoming free agent getting their rights traded. T.J. Oshie could get the Washington Capitals as much as a second round pick depending on his market. Kevin Shattenkirk‘s market is likely dead because everyone thinks he’s signing with the New York Rangers. A sign and trade might be the Caps best weapon if they want to get anything for him because they’re the only team who can sign him for eight years.
Karl Alzner could easily fetch a fourth round pick while Justin Williams should net either a fourth or a third. The Washington Capitals would be lucky to get anything for Daniel Winnik‘s rights because I can’t see anyone saying “hey, let’s have more time to negotiate with a bottom six forward”. These mid-round picks might not sound like much, but because the NHL draft is a crap shoot, loading up on ammunition isn’t a terrible idea.
Another reason why loading up on draft picks is a good idea is because the Capitals would be smart to bribe the Vegas Golden Knights to take Brooks Orpik in the expansion draft. This clears a huge contract and allows them much more salary cap flexibility. In today’s NHL, the salary cap is a very valuable weapon if used properly.
Marcus Johansson and John Carlson are both likely gone. The latter is a free agent after the 2017-18 season, so unless the Washington Capitals view him as a long-term building block, trading him is the right move. Johansson could make sense for a team like the Anaheim Ducks or Minnesota Wild, but a lot of work would need to be done to make the latter happen.
Lars Eller could be traded as well, but he might be a guy who has more value at the trade deadline. Jay Beagle fits in this category as well. So what’s left of the Capitals, who sort of resemble what Fallout 5 might look like?
A Bright Future
A few players who didn’t get traded are Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov. The first and third are obviously a part of the next core. Burakovsky might be, but if he helps them get someone like Jonathan Drouin, the Capitals should be open to trading him. However, in this scenario, he is a part of the next core.
Kuznetsov signs an eight-year deal with an average annual value of $6.25 million. Mark Scheifele, who has similar production, got eight years with an AAV of $6.1 million. Eight years is a long time, but it likely lowers his cap hit a little bit. Ryan Johansen signs an identical deal to Scheifele. Between the two, the Capitals have a strong future down the middle.
Dmitry Orlov gets an eight-year deal with an AAV of $4.5 million. He might want a shorter deal, but I don’t think he could say no to getting $36 million. I’d be willing to go as high as a $5 million AAV for eight years of Orlov. It’s hard to project what Nate Schmidt will sign for, but four years and $2.75 million seems fair. He’s an important part of this team moving forward regardless of what the Caps do. Burakovsky is hard to figure out, but a four year deal worth $2.75 million per season seems fair.
Matt Niskanen doesn’t get traded unless someone gives up A LOT to get him. He’s a first pairing defenseman and one of the best in the NHL. You don’t get that for the foreseeable future without paying a premium price. Gruabuer gets an extension and is the new franchise goalie. The Caps have enough goalie depth in the minors to compensate in case he isn’t.
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I honestly can’t envision the Washington Capitals blowing up their core. But if they do it and they play their cards right, they could easily set themselves up for future success.