Washington Capitals: In appreciation of Alex Ovechkin and chasing down Wayne Gretzky

Alex Ovechkin is about to be awarded yet another Rocket Richard trophy at the NHL Awards in Las Vegas tonight. If that sentence sounds familiar, it’s because it is.

Over the last few months and years, a debate has been swelling about Alex Ovechkin’s place in history, as each year he defies the aging curve and racks up another league-leading season for the Washington Capitals.

Ovechkin has 658 career goals, which places him 13th in NHL history behind Luc Robitaille, Teemu Selanne and Mario Lemieux. The number everyone wants to talk about, though, is 894.

Ovechkin trails that number, Wayne Gretzky’s all-time mark, by 236 goals. In short, he’s still got a ways to go. But Ovechkin, and even Gretzky, aren’t putting it out of the question.

So let’s take a dive into Ovechkin’s Hall of Fame career, and the possibility of breaking one of the sport’s most unbreakable records.

Adjusted Goals

The way to start this is simply to say that Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of his generation.

A more statistical and contextual opinion, however, supports a theory that Ovechkin is already the greatest goal scorer of all time, even if he retired today.

Ovechkin led the league in goals once again this season, his age 33 season, with 51 goals on the year. He won his eighth Rocket Richard Trophy, which is the most in league history by a margin of six. He’s also led the NHL in goals more times than any other in league history (eight times), one more than Bobby Hull and two more than Phil Esposito.

But it’s unfair to compare Ovechkin to the counterparts of yesteryear, simply because the game is different than it was 30 and 40 years ago. Goal-scoring saw a boom in the 1980s and a significant dip in the 90s “Dead Puck Era,” which the league never fully swung back from.

And since hockey is a weird sport which has changed pretty drastically over the years, a thing called “adjusted goals” exists. Here’s a brief explanation.

Essentially, this is a way to even the playing field to adjust for when goal-scoring was up or down on a given year. Players in the 80s will see their numbers deflated, and players in the 90s see their numbers inflated, for example.

Ovechkin has 740 adjusted goals for his career, which places him fifth all time on this list. He’s just one adjusted goal behind Selanne and 18 behind Gretzky. Gordie Howe leads the category with 925.

Howe played 26 seasons in the NHL. Selanne played 22 seasons. Jaromir Jagr, in second, played 24, whereas Ovechkin just finished his 14th season.

Speaking through adjusted numbers, there’s a very real and very legitimate argument Alex Ovechkin is already the greatest goal-scorer to ever live, considering the expected length of Ovechkin’s career still to come.

But unfortunately for Ovechkin, those aren’t the numbers we’re talking about — because they don’t exist in the record book. So let’s look at where he really stands in league history.

Lucky Number 13

Ovechkin has 658 career goals right now, good for 13th all-time in NHL history. Were he to retire today, he’s already booked a first-class ticket to the Hockey Hall of Fame.

The next closest active player is Patrick Marleau in 28th, with 551 goals. Marleau began playing in 1997. Ovechkin did in 2005.

Ovechkin has scored 50 or more goals eight times in his career, including this past season, on his way to yet another Rocket Richard Trophy.

The Rocket Richard Trophy was introduced in 1999 as a way to honor Canadiens great Maurice Richard. And since the trophy’s inception, many outstanding players have earned the honor.

Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla, Pavel Bure and Steven Stamkos have all won the award twice. But they’re all tied for second — because Alex Ovechkin has won the award eight times since 2005.

He’s also got the record for times leading the league in goals in a season, too. Brett Hull led in scoring seven times. Esposito led six times, Howe five times, Gretzky five times, Lemieux three times, to name a few.

To put it plainly, Ovechkin currently has three more seasons leading the NHL in goal-scoring than the guy the award is named after.

Lockouts

As crazy as it sounds, there’s a possibility that Ovechkin could, or even should, have even more goals than he currently has.

He was drafted first overall in 2004, but there was a lockout for the entire 2004-2005 season. That meant Ovechkin didn’t begin play until his age 19 season in 2005 (Ovechkin’s birthday is September 17). Therefore, Ovechkin missed one whole year early in his career. In 2012, there was a shortened season because of a lockout. He scored 32 goals in 48 games that year.

That’s 116 possible games for Ovechkin in the lineup that he missed out on.

Let’s play it safe and assume he would have scored 68 goals in those years, and scored 50 exactly each year. As crazy as it sounds, that’s a pretty legitimate estimate to make.

Firstly, Gretzky and Mike Bossy have nine 50-goal seasons, which is the most in league history. If the lockouts in 2004-2005 and 2012 never happened, and we assume the above, Ovechkin would have the NHL lead for 50-goal seasons right now. Instead, he’s at eight in real life.

But for his potential numbers, 68+658 is 726 goals. If Ovechkin were to have that number of goals right now, he would be 6th all time and only 168 goals behind Gretzky

There still is a thought that Ovechkin would have spent the 2004-2005 season in Russia playing for Dynamo Moscow. Even if that were the case, he’d still likely be around 676 career goals, which would place him one slot higher at 12th all-time.

Yet, Ovechkin at 658 goals right now, fair or unfair.

895

So let’s project the actual, true numbers, if conditions are perfect for the rest of Ovechkin’s career: I used very basic regression method here — five goals less per year as his career goes on — just an estimation to get an idea of what exactly he’ll need.

Ovechkin has two years left on his 13-year contract, and let’s pretend that Ovechkin’s career is finally on the downswing (which, to be fair, we’ve never seen yet), but he’s got one more 50 goal season left in him as goal-scoring continues to rise in the NHL. So, let’s say over the next two years he scores 50 and 45 goals, respectively.

That would put him 4th at the end of that time frame, in June of 2021, above Brett Hull with 753 career goals. At that point, he would trail Jagr and Howe by 13 and 48 goals, each.

This is where the biggest monkey wrench gets thrown into the situation, though: Ovechkin’s contract.

Both he and Capitals owner Ted Leonsis have said that they want to see his career end in Washington, and there’s no reason to believe that has changed, or will change in the immediate future. But with a potential NHL work stoppage on the horizon once again, and perhaps the threat of another Olympic Games sans the NHL, the possibility exists that Ovechkin could decide he’s through with the NHL and return to Russia.

But for this exercise, let’s pretend the NHL goes to the Olympics and Ovechkin decides to re-sign in Washington.

If his goal totals were to decrease by five per season after the 2020-2021 regular season ends, he would score 40 and 35 goals through the end of the 2023 regular season. That would leave him at 828 goals and in second place, just 66 goals behind Gretzky.

At the end of the 2023 regular season, he will be 37 years old. If his body can hold up, and if he still wants to go after the record, there’s no reason to think he would end his chase this short. If he’s lost his desire or his body isn’t holding up the way he thought, he could call it quits at any moment over this time period.

If the regression continues for Ovechkin and he scores 35 and 30 the next two years, that will leave him at 893 goals — one goal behind Gretzky by the end of the 2024-2025 season.

At that point, he’d assuredly stay in the league and try and break the record in the 2025-2026 season. He will be 40 years old at the start of that season.

Overall, if Ovechkin, aged 33, were to play six more seasons and avoid playing into his 40s, he would need to average just over 39 goals a year to hit 894 career goals. Were he to play five more seasons, he’d need to average slightly over 47 (47.2) goals a season to break the mark.

Anything less than five seasons, and it’s safe to assume he won’t be catching Gretzky. If he plays six or more seasons, we’ve got a photo finish on our hands.

And if we add in any of the lockout goals mentioned earlier, and we’d be in a much more serious conversation.

You might think it’s crazy to suggest that a 37-year old can score 35 goals, but this is where I remind you we’re discussing Alexander Ovechkin.