Washington Capitals: Breaking Down the Free Agency Projections
The Washington Capitals announced Tuesday which RFAs they tendered their qualifying offers to. Here’s who we think will stay and go.
Jakub Vrana, Vitek Vanecek, Colby Williams, Andre Burakovsky, Christian Djoos, and Chandler Stephenson. These are the restricted free agents the Washington Capitals extended qualifying offers to earlier this week.
You know exactly who they need and the offseason predictions have gone as expected thus far. Carl Hagelin is back for four more seasons. Brooks Orpik has retired after a successful NHL career. We also know who didn’t get qualifying offers and while they aren’t completely ruled out, the salary cap shrinking makes life more complicated for general manager Brian MacLellan- the man in charge for these decisions.
To recap from draft weekend, the league and the NHL Players Association announced that the salary cap increased to $81.5 million, an improvement from the $79.5 million a year ago. That’s great news for a lot of teams looking to spend on free agency.
Here in Washington though their cap space is set at $9,235,706 million per CapFriendly, which isn’t a lot of wiggle room. The Capitals did not extend qualifying offers to their unrestricted free agents Brett Connolly, Dmitrij Jaskin, or Devante Smith-Pelly, which means they’re allowed to talk to other teams.
Connolly is looking for a raise while Smith-Pelly just simply wants a chance to succeed in the NHL. Jaskin is likely out the door after coach Todd Reirden opted to go with Chandler Stephenson in the lineup down the stretch and in the postseason.
Who stays:
Jakub Vrana
The biggest priority of the offseason as far as contracts go, Jakub Vrana had a career-season in 2018-19 and saw his numbers peak. This peak began in the run to the Stanley Cup in 2018 and Vrana elevated his game to new heights.
Vrana improved his point total from the previous season by 20 points and wasn’t scratched from the lineup at all. In all 82 regular season games, Vrana had offensive career-highs with 24 goals, 23 assists, and 47 points.
It is this reason why General Manager Brian MacLellan has him high on the offseason wish list. On a conference call with the media before the draft, MacLellan said:
“We’re in contact with his agent. We’ve had a few conversations with him. We’re continuing to talk to him as we go forward. We’re going to play it out here. We’re going to see where the cap is and see what our roster decisions are and make a decision with Jakub and his agent.”
Vrana signed a three-year, entry-level contract in 2014 shortly after his draft selection by the Capitals in the first round at 13th overall. His cap hit from last season is at $863,333 and his overall value from this contract per CapFriendly is $4,275,000.
With Brett Connolly in talks with the Oilers and possibly other teams (more on that later), Vrana and his agent are highly likely to command a cap hit around $4-million in terms of a bridge deal but the shrinking cap might make for a lower bridge deal due to a lack of leverage in arbitration (per Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post, subscription required).
There’s no telling what will happen but it is doubtful MacLellan will let a young forward trending upward leave. Though re-signing Carl Hagelin does make things a bit complicated under the tight cap. If MacLellan does give Vrana a big payday, that might spell bad news for Andre Burakovsky.
Christian Djoos
Christian Djoos was one of the top defensemen in the AHL up in Hershey. When the team had the offseason departures in the summer of 2017 with Karl Alzner and Kevin Shattenkirk via free agency, as well as losing Nate Schmidt in the Vegas Expansion Draft, it opened a roster spot in Washington that Djoos made right out of training camp.
Djoos had a strong rookie season in 2017-18. He scored his first NHL goal in his debut Oct. 11 vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins. Djoos finished with 14 points (3 goals, 11 assists) in 63 games and led the rookie defensemen with 55 blocked shots.
Djoos was paired with Brooks Orpik down the stretch, including their path towards the Stanley Cup that spring. The following season, which was the final year of his three-year, entry-level deal that was signed in 2014, injuries plagued the 24-year old. He finished with 10 points (1 goal, 9 assist) in 45 games.
The contract that was signed five years ago carried a cap hit of $650,000 last season so expect Djoos to get another bridge deal.
Chandler Stephenson
Chandler Stephenson possesses a lot of speed and is a great defensive forward. This was shown in his rookie season, when he was a standout on the bottom-six during their Stanley Cup run. The offensive numbers were promising for a bottom-six that season with 18 points (6 goals, 12 assists) in 67 games.
His offensive numbers dropped in 2018-19 with 11 points (5 goals, 6 assists) in 64 games. After being shuffled with Dmitrij Jaskin, coach Todd Reirden opted to go with Stephenson down the stretch of the regular season on the fourth line and also got playoff minutes over the former Blues forward.
Stephenson carries a cap hit of $650,000 from the second year of his two-year, $1.3 million deal that he signed in the summer of 2017 and it is likely he’ll get another bridge deal for at least one more season.
Vitek Vanecek
It is highly unlikely that Vitek Vanecek leaves the Capitals system with the rocky goaltender situation ahead with the Seattle expansion draft looming next summer. Braden Holtby has one year left and due to these expansion rules, the Capitals can only protect one goaltender and expose the other.
Vanecek along with Ilya Samsonov split time between the pipes last season for the Hershey Bears. Vaneck had a great regular season with a 21-10-6 record with a 2.62 GAA and a .907 save percentage. This one-two goaltending tandem will be needed for success in Hershey. Both goalies carried the Bears back to the Calder Cup playoffs and they’ll be looking to get further than the second round.
Colby Williams
Colby Williams is a defenseman of the future. The Hershey Bears blueliner just finished a two-year, entry-level deal and was the other prospect that made the cut for the RFA qualifying offer.
Willaims has a chance to compete for a roster spot at training camp but will likely be back with Hershey. Last season, WIlliams had 10 assists in 36 regular season games. He was also fourth on the team with 33 penalty minutes.
Who leaves:
Dmitrij Jaskin
Dmitrij Jaskin was claimed off waivers just before opening night as forward insurance ahead of the inevitable early-season suspension of Tom Wilson. With just eight points in 37 games (2 goals, 6 assists), Jaskin almost was placed on waivers the week before the trade deadline. The team opted to go with Devante Smith-Pelly instead.
This created a problem for Jaskin, who was suddenly the odd man out of the lineup, after the pre-trade deadline acquisition of Carl Hagelin. Previously, he was rotating in the lineup with brief time on the top six but finding most of his time on the fourth line. The other dilemma was coach Todd Reirden opting to go with Chandler Stephenson instead.
With a majority of his time in the second half spent in the press box watching the game instead of being on the ice, Jaskin’s only appearance post-deadline came in the regular season finale with some starters resting for the playoff grind ahead.
What might’ve been more painful for Jaskin than watching his new team falter in the first round with nothing he can do about it was probably watching his former team, the St. Louis Blues, go on to win the Stanley Cup.
According to this article from J.J. Regan of NBC Sports Washington, Jaskin was frustrated with his lack of playing time with the Blues and wanted out. The team waived him at his request just after the preseason concluded and the Capitals were the ones to claim him.
It is likely he will look for some NHL opportunity elsewhere. Jaskin had a strong showing at the IIHF Worlds and has potential if another team is willing to sign him.
Brett Connnolly
Brett Connolly, with the tightened cap space, is the hardest piece of the Capitals free agency puzzle this summer. A first round draft pick by the Tampa Bay Lightning at sixth overall in 2010, Connolly bounced from the sunshine state to the Boston Bruins before the Capitals signed him to a one-year deal worth $850,000 in the summer of 2016.
Connolly is another success story of a Capitals reclamation project and after an impressive 23-point (8 goals, 23 assists) in 66 games, he earned a two-year bridge deal the next summer. Connolly was a key component on the third line during the 2018 Stanley Cup run and had an even bigger offensive season in 2018-19 with 46 points (22 goals, 24 assists) in 81 regular season games.
Connolly is 27-years old and now a veteran open to testing the market, hence the term unrestricted free agent. Carrying a cap-hit of $3-million, Connolly and his agent are looking for a big payday.
According to a report from SportsNet via 630 CHED radio host Reid Wilkins that came out Tuesday (confirmed by Connolly’s agent Gerry Johannson), the two parties were in talks with the Edmonton Oilers, a team that’s looking to improve their own current situation. A line with Connolly next to Connor McDavid could be lethal.
Unlikely but… Don’t rule out quite yet:
Andre Burakovsky
Andre Burakovsky aka “Burkie” is a young, speedy forward that the Capitals drafted in the first round at 23rd overall in 2015. The speedy forward was signed to a two-year bridge deal two summers ago with a cap hit of $3.25 million last season.
Part of extending the qualifying offer is matching the AAV, which Washington did. But a cap hit of $3.25 and extending the contracts of players noted on the previous slides makes things all the more complicated.
Via Brian MacLellan conference call pre-draft weekend:
“Andre had a frustrating year this year, but I think he finished it up well. I think from the trade deadline on… I thought he had a good playoffs. We like the player. There’s been some inconsistencies there, but when he’s on his game he’s a good player. We’d like to keep him around. Obviously, his name is out there a bit, so we do talk to some teams on him. We’re not going to move him unless we get something we feel comfortable with back.”
Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued the now-24 year old but the latter was part of the problem last season and Burakovsky was the subject of trade rumors both at the deadline and over the draft weekend.
Burakovsky finished the season playing in 76 games, 20 more than the previous year, but had the identical mark of 25 points (12 goals, 13 assists). His second half improved and Burakovsky does want to be back in Washington. That’s what the players and the fans want but the business side says it’s likely the Capitals will trade him for a cheaper forward with the tightened salary cap.
Even if Burkie doesn’t come back, he’ll always be remembered in Washington for his two big goals in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2018, which punched the Capitals’ ticket to their first Stanley Cup Final in 20 years.
Even so, the fact the Capitals do have leverage in Burakovsky’s rights makes it a “don’t rule it out” quite yet. If Burakovsky and the team agree to a new one-year deal, he could be back in Washington on the third line with the likely departure of Brett Connolly (via Isabelle Khurshudyan of The Washington Post, subscription required).
Devante Smith-Pelly
Devante Smith-Pelly aka “Deevo” and “DSP” earned his stripes in Washington and a home after the New Jersey Devils bought out his contract. Coming in the wake of trading Marcus Johansson to free up cap space in 2017, DSP became a household name the next spring scoring seven goals including three in the Stanley Cup Final.
Last summer, he took a hometown discount of $1 million to remain here in Washington.
“It wasn’t worth it to leave somewhere where I’m happy and somewhere I really want to be. The money to me personally is not that important if I’m not going to be happy somewhere else,” Smith-Pelly told the Associated Press last summer in this article from Sports Illustrated.
Smith-Pelly struggled with just eight points (4 goals, 4 assists) in 54 regular season games and didn’t see NHL action until the playoffs when the team recalled him for Game 5 in the wake of the T.J. Oshie injury. This was part of being placed on waivers before the trade deadline where 30 other teams could claim him, but Smith-Pelly cleared to finish out the regular season in Hershey.
The right winger got a huge heroes welcome from Capitals fans in that Game 5 at Capital One Arena and he played much better in those three games than his statline indicated. Despite this, MacLellan noted that he needed to improve his conditioning this offseason.
“Internally we had to a couple of issues we had to work through,” said MacLellan on exit interview day in this article by J.J. Regan of NBC Sports Washington.
MacLellan also added in the same article:
“I think we’ll talk to [Smith-Pelly] going forward. I had an exit interview meeting with him and out-laid our expectations and we need to be assured that requirements would be met before we brought him back.”
Smith-Pelly sounded open to coming back in his exit interview but it sounds like he may not be in those plans set by GMBM.
Next. Capitals draft weekend recap. dark
Now we wait and see what unfolds in the coming days. July 1st is the start of free agency and that’s when things get even sillier this offseason.