Washington Capitals: Potential right wing free agency targets
After the Andre Burakovsky trade sent a third-line winger to Colorado, the Washington Capitals found themselves in need of a third-line right winger.
Washington Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan said as much this morning, and if history has told us anything, MacLellan is a straight-shooter and will do exactly what he said he would.
Now that we’ve got an idea for the Capitals plan for free agency, let’s look at some of the options available to the team in free agency.
According to CapFriendly, Washington has just over nine million dollars in cap space to spend in this free agency period. A significant chunk, however, will be spent on Jakub Vrana and Christian Djoos. Then, the Capitals will have to fill out the rest of the lineup, likely with league minimum — or close to it — players.
#Caps GM Brian MacLellan says team will now look to free agency to fill right wing spot on the third line after Burakovsky trade.
— Brian McNally (@bmcnally14) June 29, 2019
With MacLellan now working on a bridge deal with Vrana, expect him to sign a one or two year deal for around 3.5 million dollars. For Djoos, he’ll likely come in around a million dollars per year on a shorter term contract.
If we assume the above, and fill out the fourth line and extra skater with Shane Gersich (at $700,000) who impressed at Development Camp, and Nathan Walker (at $750,000), the Capitals will have about $3.285 million dollars to spend on a third line right wing according to CapFriendly.
While that takes them out of the running for the big name free agents like Artemi Panarin or Anders Lee, there’s still a quality level of forwards the Capitals could target. Here’s some options that realistic for the Capitals this offseason.
Option 1: Brett Connolly
While everyone would like to see Brett Connolly return to Washington, that’s almost assuredly out of the question at this point.
At 27 years old, Connolly posted a career year in the 2018-19 season with 22 goals and 24 assists and is set for a big payday. MacLellan has said as much of late.
#Caps GM Brian MacLellan on unrestricted free agent Brett Connolly. Not looking good there: "I think maybe at some point, he's probably going to get priced out of our range. It appears to be heading that way.”
— Brian McNally (@bmcnally14) June 29, 2019
So the in-house option isn’t available to the Capitals, who will have to look outside the organization to fill a role next to Carl Hagelin and Lars Eller.
Option 2: Brandon Pirri
“Option 2” is quite misleading here, as Brandon Pirri could be a potential steal in this year’s free agency crop.
As Pirri, 28, was sometimes a healthy scratch in Vegas, he’ll undoubtedly be hitting the open market in a few days as Vegas doesn’t have the cap space, or desire, to sign him.
He played in just 31 games last year in Vegas and scored 12 goals and six assists. Over his career, his topped out at 22 goals (in 2014-15 in Florida) and 29 points (in 2015-16 in Florida and Anaheim). While those numbers aren’t eye-popping, the reason Washington should be in on him is because of how he drives play.
Brandon Pirri is literally someone every team should be targeting. Though playing majorly in the AHL and appearing weak in his NYR stint three years ago, the forward's return to VGK was an offensive explosion. His projection is roughly somewhere under $2.5m for 3 years or less. pic.twitter.com/JGBcdlkCNu
— WPGChief (@WPG_Chief) June 27, 2019
In 376 minutes of time on ice last season in Vegas, Pirri posted a 56.69 Corsi percentage, a 58.61 Fenwick percentage and a 57.6 High-Danger percentage. He was on the ice for 59.55 percent of the Golden Knights’ scoring chances and had a 72.41 Goals For percentage. He also had an Expected Goals percentage of 60.44.
In other words, Pirri was an absolute possession monster in Vegas and was an excellent shot suppressor on defense and a superb generator of offense.
While the goal numbers might not be there to grab headlines, his possession numbers — paired with the Capitals best possession forward in Carl Hagelin — should make for a third line that rarely is on the defensive end of the ice.
Option 3: Joonas Donskoi
Joonas Donskoi is perhaps one of the more notable names of potential signings for the Capitals. A reason he’s third on this list, though, is that he might have priced himself out of the Capitals range of ~3 million dollars.
He’s coming off a 37-point season, where he scored 14 goals and notched 23 assists in San Jose last season. In four seasons in the NHL, Donskoi has hit 30 points in three seasons and would perhaps even be an upgrade over Connolly in the long run.
Last season, Donskoi had a Corsi percentage of 54.46, a High-Danger chances percentage of 56.05 and Fenwick percentage of 55.18. Donskoi would be yet another offensive-minded forward with skill.
He also had the second-highest Expected Goals percentage on the team with 57.33 percent, meaning he’s another winger who is sharp on both ends of the ice.
Option 4: Corey Perry
This is by far the most splashy signing the Capitals could realistically make, though the likelihood isn’t favorable.
At 34-years old, Corey Perry is clearly on the downside of his career. He hasn’t scored 30 or more goals since the 2015-16 season and hasn’t been a positive possession player in each of the last two seasons.
But it’s worth noting that the former Hart Trophy winner could try and rekindle some magic in D.C. on the cheaper side of things.
Perry will be paid two million dollars per year for the next four seasons by the Ducks and was due to make 12 million dollars in the next two years on his original deal. With eight million of that on the way from Anaheim in the way of buyout payments, he needs just four million dollars to make back what he would have made at the start.
A two-year, two-million dollar deal might make sense in that regard for the former standout goal-scorer to give the Capitals some pop on their third line.
A look at history:
None of the Capitals options will shock the NHL landscape, but there’s some signings that could really impact next year’s team.
In the last two years, Washington has made a positive turn towards making moves with an analytical mindset. With Nick Jensen, Carl Hagelin and Michal Kempny‘s acquisitions and re-signings, the team has clearly made trades and signings with some advanced possession metrics in mind.
Before Brett Connolly was brought to Washington, he wasn’t tendered a qualifying offer by the Bruins and signed in Washington for $850,000. He re-signed after the season on a two-year deal worth 1.5 million per year.
Connolly entered the 2016-17 season, his first in Washington, having never scored more than 12 goals or topped more than 25 points. In the five seasons prior, however, he was a positive possession player.
Next. Breaking down the Andre Burakovsky trade. dark
Should the Capitals take the same gamble on a player in free agency, specifically with some possession metrics in mind, there could be a diamond in the rough to be had on the Capitals third line.