Washington Capitals: Were the Carolina Hurricanes just lucky last season?

We continue our offseason look at the Metropolitan Division rivals and how they stack up against the Washington Capitals. Next up, the Carolina Hurricanes.

After finishing between sixth to eighth in the Metropolitan over the previous five seasons, the Carolina Hurricanes finally broke through and finished fourth, while making the playoffs. Not many expected them to have a chance against the Washington Capitals in the opening round, however they were able to shock everyone and overcome the defending Stanley Cup Champions in a long tough series.

The Hurricanes would go on to upset the New York Islanders in a sweep, before running into the hot Boston Bruins and losing in another sweep. This was a good first step for the Hurricanes to return to contender status. The team would double down on this success by carrying out an aggressive and calculated approach to free agency and the trade market.

As with any team who is successful deep into the playoffs, their soon to be free agents become more desirable to other teams. Thus, it started with the exit of the Hurricanes primary backup goalie Curtis McElhinney to the Tampa Bay Lightening and depth centerman Greg McKegg to the New York Rangers. The Hurricanes didn’t sit idle though as they made sure they locked up their number one goalie in Petr Mrazek to a two-year, $6.25 million deal.

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The team was also forced into extending Sebastian Aho, as he received an offer sheet from Montreal Canadians, for five years at $42.27 million or an AAV of $8.45 million. This was going to happen one way or another but I’m sure the Hurricanes were planning on it being for less AAV. Another domino fell shortly after with Micheal Ferland joining the Vancouver Canucks for four years at $14 million. The team responded by signing free agent Ryan Dzingel to a two-year deal for $6.75 million, with the hope he will fill the offensive void left with Ferlund’s departure.

In anticipation for the eventual free agent exits, the Hurricanes used the trade market to set themselves up for the next season and beyond. It started with trading Calvin De Haan and Aleksi Saarela to the Chicago Blackhawks for Anton Forsberg and Gustav Forsling. Next they acquired Eric Haula from the Vegas Golden Knights for Nicolas Roy and a conditional draft pick. And finally they traded Scott Darling and a sixth round pick in 2020 to the Florida Panthers for James Reimer.

Although it doesn’t appear to be helpful in the immediate future, the Hurricanes took on the salary and eventually buyout of Patrick Marleau from the Toronto Maple Leafs with a conditional 1st round pick and 7th round pick in exchange for a 6th round pick. By doing this the team showed its ability to think both for the future as well as the present.

So how does all the roster change over affect the team on the ice? Starting with the largest question area for the team, the goalies, by re-signing Mrazek they are trusting him to be the number one. But if this plan falters they have a few reliable options in Reimer and Forsberg.

In comparison to Darling and McElhinney, Reimer is a better backup as opposed to Darling but fairly even match to McElhinney. Reimer has a career save percentage of 0.914 with a GAA of 2.81, Darling has a career save percentage of 0.908 with a GAA of 2.72. Reimer has maintained a more consistent career output versus Darling, who hasn’t been the same since leaving the Chicago Blackhawks.

While McElhinney‘s numbers look better than Reimer, they could be a byproduct of the team in front of him as the Hurricanes held a scoring chance in the teams favor (SCF%) of 55.1 and a CF% of 54.8. The other addition, Anton Forsberg, seems to be a classic case of needing a change in scenery to get an opportunity to shine. Forsberg has similar numbers for last season compared to Darling’s career, save percentage of 0.908 with a GAA of 2.97.

Reviewing the roster switch overs in forwards and defensemen, the Hurricanes again made necessary moves for both the present and the future. While losing Ferlund via free agency the team knew they needed to replace his production, thus they lured in Ryan Dzingel on a shorter term lower AAV contract. By doing so they leave themselves open in the future to either retain Dzingel or cut ties if doesn’t work out. In this case, Dzingel produced more offense over his career than Ferlund, since breaking into the league Dzingel has produced at least 32 points every year as a mainstay versus Ferlund producing a career low as a mainstay of 18 points. The most obvious difference is Ferlund’s ability to contribute defensively.

While they are not a one for one match up due to difference in positions, Eric Haula replacing Greg McKegg will provide better offensive depth while not costing on the defensive front. Haula sports a better CF% over the last few seasons than McKegg, 54.9 compared to 44.6. When fully healthy Haula proved to be a good offensive presence for the Golden Knights, in 2017-2018 when he scored 29 goals and 26 assists for 55 points in 76 games, where McKegg was known more for a defensive centerman with a career high of 11 points.

The only real change in defensemen was the trade involving De Haan and Forsling. This would be considered a one sided trade in Chicago’s favor if it wasn’t for this trade also bringing in Anton Forsberg. Forsling is a less experienced player than De Haan, and from a small sample size looks to be a more offensive defenseman considering his career 53% oZS% versus De Haan’s 50.9% oZS% for his career. A major bonus is the difference in their respective cap hits, De Haan would have cost the Hurricanes $4.55 million AAV for three seasons versus Forsling‘s one year at approximately $0.875 million. This leaves the Hurricanes with approximately $2.5 million in cap space to possibly sign back Justin Williams who remains a free agent, and it is believed he will either sign with the Hurricanes or retire.

After a busy offseason, will the additions and subtractions to this roster mean better success against the Capitals? The Capitals actually owned a regular season record of 4-0, but the Hurricanes got the last laugh by eliminating them in a tough seven game series. The strength of the Hurricanes last season was their ability to lead in the amount of shots taken, which helps keep the puck in the offensive zone and feeds into another strength their aggressive forecheck.

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Looking at their additions, it appears they have increased their offensive presence at the cost of defense. Thus if they struggle defensively too often they might find themselves working from behind, and with a team like the Capitals with their own changes this will be a tall task. This new version of the match up will be the ultimate example of improved defense versus improved offense. The real question concerning the Hurricanes, besides will Justin Williams be retained, is will the goaltending step up?

After being overlooked last year, I think the Hurricanes will have a hard time sneaking up on opponents after their success last season. Below is when we get to see how the two teams in their new roster structure.

2019-2020 Schedule Capitals vs. Hurricanes:

Saturday, October 5th @ Home

Saturday, December 28th @ Carolina

Friday, January 3rd @ Carolina

Monday, January 13th @ Home

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