Washington Capitals: Three Keys to Major Success
The Washington Capitals are 15 months removed from the ultimate success in winning the Stanley Cup. They followed up with an early exit in the 2019 playoffs.
How do the Washington Capitals reach that success level again? What three key areas would mean the 2019-2020 season was a major success?
To consider the season a success all teams expect nothing less than hoisting the Stanley Cup as the sign of a successful season. Reality though is that only one team will succeed in this goal, so by not winning the cup would a team consider the outcome to be unsuccessful altogether?
Each team has facets of the game which could undergo some marked improvement, and in those areas a team could have success without making it to the end as champions. As the process goes each team will take stock of where best to improve from the previous season to increase their chances of a title.
For the Washington Capitals, there were a number of obvious areas which could stand improvement that would move them closer to reclaiming the cup. Those areas include improved secondary scoring, better team defense, more reliable zone entry on power plays (Please kill the slingshot already!), and better faceoff win percentage.
With the limited cap space to operate and make any additions, the Capitals chose to improve an area which was affordable and directed to one of these areas of improvement. The team defense was an obvious area the team knew needed improvement by the additions of Radko Gudas, Brendan Leipsic, Garnet Hathaway, and Richard Panik.
As a byproduct the secondary scoring need has been laid on some of these additions as well as a few holdovers who would be asked to produce in this area unlike in the past. From the moves the team has made this offseason, below are the three key areas which will need to improve to consider this season a major success.
Team Defense
If a team goes through adding and retaining the personnel necessary to improve an area of weakness and improvement doesn’t occur in this area it would be an obvious failure. It’s no wonder why the Capitals felt it was important to improve the team defense given the state of their defense when compared to the league.
Last season the Capitals had a 78.93 PK% for the 8th worst in the league and about 1.5% less than league average, 80.22 PK%. The percentage of scoring chances in the team’s favor, SCF%, was 48.3 placing them 10th worst in the league meaning they had more scoring chances in the opponents favor over their own which could be a byproduct of the lacking team defense.
Along the same lines the Capitals percentage of high danger scoring chances in the team’s favor, HDF%, was 44.9 for 6th worst in the league meaning the opponent had the advantage which can be attributed to the Capitals inability to keep opponents out of their own zone.
If the Capitals can at least be around the league average for the PK%, and have greater than 50% for SCF% and HDF%, that should be a good indicator of a vastly improved team defense.
Zone Entry on Power Play
If you are a Capitals fan I know you have experienced the same frustration I have in the method the team decided to enter the zone while on the power play. It’s especially unnerving given how successful the power play had been in years past.
Since the 2012-2013 season the Capitals ranked as high as 1st, which happened twice, and as low as 7th. However, last year they finished ranked 12th their lowest since 2011-2012 when they ranked 19th. There is always the possibility that the difference in personnel on the power play had a hand in the effectiveness. But the lineup taking most of the power play minutes have been fairly consistent over the last few seasons.
While it is hard to find a method to quantify the effectiveness of zone entries on a specific unit, it isn’t hard to recall the mostly typical outcome from the entry during the Capitals on the power play. They would slingshot into the zone, which in a two minute penalty span might be successful about two out of four tries with maybe one developing a single high danger scoring chance.
Another first! This time it's Richard Panik who ties it up pic.twitter.com/ThqTEArzBu
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) September 19, 2019
The effectiveness of the power play is critical to the Capitals chance at success given the percentage of offense the power play produces in recent history for the Capitals.
Washington Capitals Power Play Effectiveness over the last few seasons. pic.twitter.com/TsUYOd9DVw
— dtrice91781 (@dtrice91781) September 20, 2019
Provided the Capitals can move back to a power play effectiveness that would produce a percentage of PPG versus GF % of between 22-30% it would be a success in improving a critical aspect to the teams arsenal.
Faceoff Win Percentage
It’s no secret the Capitals centermen are not the best when it comes to the playing the puck at the faceoff dot, as evidenced by my co-contributors recent article. Last season their FO% were Backstrom: 48.6%, Kuznetsov: 38.7%, Eller: 49.0% and Dowd: 51.9%.
This breakdown is only looking at the most consistent centermen the team employed for majority of the year, and of those only one had greater than 50% faceoff win percentage in Nic Dowd. To better control the tempo and possession game the Capitals will need to improve upon these numbers for the top 3 centers. It directly correlates with the possession of the puck as those with near 50% FO% they also were the three best in terms of CF%.
Eller held the best with 51.4% CF%, followed by Backstrom at 49.9% CF% and Dowd with 48.6% CF%; while Kuznetsov had a 48.3% CF%. Still all very strong numbers but it can be shown that those with the increased success at the faceoff dot had increased the teams chance to maintain possession more effectively.
Realistically, it would be hard to ask all the centermen to account for a greater than 50% FO%, but if Backstrom, Eller and Dowd can get above 50% while Kuznetsov at least improves to 45%. This should correlate with maintaining possession better and increasing the teams opportunities to produce scoring chances as opposed to needing to defend them as frequently.
If the Capitals can gain some improvement in these three key areas of their game while maintaining the same level of play over the other facets, they will be in line for another division crown and be better equipped for a deep playoff run.
Another exit in the first round would not be considered a success, they will need to at least make it a good series into the second round if not make it to the conference final to be considered a major success.
More. 2019 Nicklas Backstrom predictions. light
I believe that will occur if they can improve these areas and continue that improvement into the playoffs when the pressure is at it’s highest and results matter the most.