Washington Capitals: Players who will improve in 2019-2020

Bold Improvement Players

These players have reached a good level already or established a constant level of play.  The qualified players from this group which have the best chance to improve upon their previous production are Backstrom, Dowd, Eller, Orlov, Vrana, Kuznetsov, and Wilson.

Even though he was mentioned as a player who would find it difficult to improve on his current play, Nicklas Backstrom is in a contract year which is the motivation any player needs to step it up another level.

While I would like to see this happen it is hard to believe he will improve on such a consistent production, over the last six seasons he has scored between 70-86 points with an average of 20 goals and 56 assists. The only time he has scored well above this range was in the high octane offense days of 2009-10 where he topped 101 points. The odds he reaches that production at this age is highly unlikely, we can at least count on him for his normal averages.

Nic Dowd was going to have a tall task in replacing a fan favorite Jay Beagle as an everyday fourth line center with good faceoff numbers and a slight offensive punch. He was successful in his first season with the Capitals as he scored 8 goals and 14 assists for 22 points, and a FOW% of 51.9 good for the best among the top four centerman on the roster.

With the help of new line mates in Garnet Hathaway and Brendan Leipsic, he is most likely looking at improving on these numbers but with the initiative of improving the team defense he might suffer from some fallout on the offensive side of the puck. However, it would be considered a success to at least match last years production.

The same argument can be made for Lars Eller, with the addition of a new line mate and added time given to another. With the addition of Richard Panik and retaining of Carl Hagelin, his production has a chance to improve from last seasons numbers. But again this line will be given additional defensive responsibilities which might counteract their offensive production.

On a personal note, Eller has produced an average point production of 30 points over the last 8 seasons with his highest numbers over the last two seasons. The chances he is able to provide more offense with a new running mate, and dealing with the loss of sniper Brett Connolly, he will need time to adjust.

A few seasons ago Orlov was given a contract extension in reward for taking the next step in proving himself a top four defenseman. He had two seasons of constant production with an average of 31 points and 7 goals with 24 assists.

In the first few seasons of this contract he has carried over those averages which is expected. However, his possession numbers have decreased over the same time. In the time preceding the contract he averaged a 52% CF versus the last two seasons with an average of 49%CF.

There is some argument that his production was affected by the presence of a declining Matt Niskanen. With a new running mate in Nick Jensen, he will most likely see his numbers improve, but for them to improve to better than his numbers before the new contract would be hard to imagine.  I believe he will find his way back to his normal play, and might experience some improvement but not enough to be a standout this season.

Jakub Vrana made large strides last season to become another viable offensive threat. He went from 27 points in 73 games to 47 points in 82 games. The natural expectation is that he will make the next jump up in his game and reach at least 60 points in a full 82 games, and break the 30 goal plateau for the first time in his short career.

I believe there is a good chance this happens but with heightened expectations and lack of secondary scoring to help apply additional pressure on opponents it might be too daulting. Also with Vrana no longer being a surprise threat he will experience increased defensive focus.  I expect we will at least see him eclipse 50 points but 60 might be a stretch.

The major wild card of the off season has been Evgeny Kuznetsov, can he put the drama behind him and prove his value to the Capitals on the ice. Kuznetsov was a key contributor to the Capitals winning the Stanley Cup, but followed that up with a less than stellar season, his point total was down from 83 points in 79 games to 72 points in 76 games.

The area of greatest concern was his drop from 44.2% FOW% to 38.7%. This will need to get better, but he will also be looking to prove himself to the team after a rough off season.  I think he will improve in some areas but not all, and to be better he will need to improve across multiple areas of his game.

Finally the player I feel will make a bold improvement, Tom Wilson. Wilson managed to crack the 40 point mark in spite of playing in only 63 games, largely due to a suspension to start the season. When coming back from the suspension, it showed that he had found a way to back off while not losing his edge we have grown to love.

Wilson finally found the scoring touch we had been hearing about since being drafted. Having another year of chemistry built between Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Kuznetsov can only increase his productivity. Also with the addition of other heavy hitters in Garnet Hathaway and Radko Gudas, Wilson will be freed up to use his speed and size to create scoring chances.  Instead of him spending so much time in the penalty box, he will be celebrating goals with his linemates.

I predict he will improve to a near 60 point producer while scoring between 25-30 goals, and he will spend between 115-130 PIM but will still manage to apply over 200 hits. Those hits will be more strategically placed and timed than in the past, I think he has put the questionable hits behind him.