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Which Eastern Conference Match-Up is the Washington Capitals Biggest Threat?

By CJ Witt

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 23: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) battles for a puck between Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (29) and Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Travis Dermott (23) during the second period in a game between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario Canada. The Toronto Maple Leafs won 6-3. (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 23: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) battles for a puck between Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (29) and Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Travis Dermott (23) during the second period in a game between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario Canada. The Toronto Maple Leafs won 6-3. (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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TAMPA, FL – MARCH 30: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on March 30, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/NHLI via Getty Images)”n”n
TAMPA, FL – MARCH 30: Alex Ovechkin #8 of the Washington Capitals against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena on March 30, 2019 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Scott Audette/NHLI via Getty Images)”n”n /

Tampa Bay Lightning

The 2018 Eastern Conference Final and what a lot of people thought could have been the 2019 conference final. Both the Capitals and Lightning underperformed in the first round, however, and both had a much shorter run than both had hoped being knocked out early.

Don’t expect either team to go anywhere though. Both teams will once again be at the top of the Eastern Conference standings and for the Capitals to make another deep run a meeting vs the Lightning may be in order. Here’s how the Caps did against the Bolts last season.

Record  1-1-1

Corsi For% – 55%

Scoring Chance For% – 52.21%

High Danger Corsi For% – 45.65%

Shooting% – 9.09%

Save% – 90.14%

High Danger Save% – 84.20%

Power play% – 26.7%

Penalty Kill% – 60%

These stats tell us the Capitals tended to control play. Controlling play also gave the Caps an advantage in scoring chances which allowed them to out score the Lightning 8-7 while five-on-five.

The number to not like here is the high danger chances. Tampa ended up with more chances in high danger areas which surely resulted in a tighter score. The Bolts also had a pretty bad 66.67% high danger save percentage vs Washington last season. Tampa might have had more high danger chances but the Caps were able to score of these chances a lot easier.

Special teams were pretty big in this series last season. While the power play was very effective the penalty kill needs work. You can’t expect to beat great teams, especially as great a team as Tampa killing only 60% of the penalties you take.

Tampa Bay was by far the best team in the regular season and the Capitals played very well against them. Both teams might take a small step back this season but I wouldn’t expect anything dramatic. If the Caps can continue to play well against the Lightning one of the biggest threats out east might not be a big threat after all.

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