Should the Washington Capitals consider trading Braden Holtby?

The Washington Capitals are not likely to sign goaltender Braden Holtby after the season. Is it time to trade Holtby to get something in return?

The Washington Capitals have been a team that has spent close to the salary cap ceiling. You would need to go back to the 2012-13 season to find more than $1,000,000 float between the cap ceiling and the Caps spend.

In September, the NHL and NHLPA both agreed to stick with the current Collective Bargaining Agreement guaranteeing labor peace through the 2022-23 season. The agreement to not prematurely end the CBA doesn’t change the biggest issue between the two sides: contract escrow.

NHL players have been vocal about their feelings towards escrow. Some say it is the dirtiest word in the NHL dressing room. Jonathan Toews from the Chicago Blackhawks shared his two biggest issues for the next CBA negotiation:

“A. escrow and B. escrow.”

So what does this mean. Between now and the next CBA negotiation, the salary cap is likely to stay flat. The solution to players losing money through escrow is to not increase the cap to limit total player contract spend.

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In an environment where the Capitals are bigger spenders, the lack of a rising cap is an issue. It means that General Manager Brian MacLellan will need to work harder to put a roster of 23 players together that stays under the salary cap.

The Capitals have 15 players under contract for the 2020-21 season which includes ten forwards, four defensemen and one goalie. The 15 players have a cap hit of $62 million leaving about $21 million to spend on at least eight player acquisitions. Washington has twelve pending restricted free agents. Jonas Siegenthaler, Travis Boyd, Brendan Leipsic, and Chandler Stephensen headline the group. The rest are players who have not established a presence with the big club.

The Caps have three pending unrestricted free agents: Center Nicklas Backstrom, defenseman Radko Gudas and goaltender Braden Holtby. Backstrom will be a priority to sign and Gudas is likely playing one and only one season in Washington. That leaves a decision on goalie Braden Holtby.

Hockey graphs did a feature on goalie performance as they age. The short story is that they get worse as they age but the worsening degree increases as they turn 30. Holtby turned 30 on September 16 this year.

There are always outliers in a data set. But the odds are Holtby has played his best games in the NHL already.

Another consideration for MacLellan is the Seattle expansion draft that will occur after the 2020-21 season. Each team will be allowed to protect only one goaltender and must provide one goaltender who is under contract for the 2021-22 season.

That means if Holtby is the long-term plan for the Caps, the team will need to expose Ilya Samsonov. Given Samsonov’s age and contract cost, it is not likely the Capitals will want to expose him.

These two factors combined suggest that Holtby will not be re-signed after the season. So the question that needs to be considered is should the Capitals trade him now to recover some assets before losing him for nothing.

The answer to that question depends on your confidence in Samsonov to carry the load this season. The sample size on the young goalie is small with only five game starts in the NHL.

Samsonov has won five of the six starts and has a respectable 0.915 save percentage. If Holtby was traded, last year’s backup Pheonix Copley would be the likely candidate to be the big club backup again.

The good news for MacLellan is that he doesn’t need to make a move today. He has until the trade deadline to make up his mind to trade Holtby or lose him for nothing. But each day that goes by, the trade value for Holtby diminishes as a team seeking goaltending help would want Holtby for as many games as possible.

Another question MacLellan would need to answer is if there is even a market for Holtby. You would assume that a Stanley Cup winning goaltender with a Vezina Trophy would be a desirable asset but Holtby has struggled so far this season with a 0.898 save percentage and 3.25 goals against average.

If the Caps are intent on trading him they will need to be coy as they give starts to Samsonov to build their confidence that he can be a number one goalie but at the same time showcasing Holtby with the hopes that he can improve upon a slow start.

The long-term health for the Capitals would benefit from the trade but the short-term aspirations for another run at Lord Stanley’s Cup hang in the balance.

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For me, I would want to see Samsonov sustain his play through the month of November when he shares the load 50/50 with Holtby. If Samsonov can maintain his play, I would trade Holtby assuming a first round pick was the minimum return. If you were the General Manager, what would you do?

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