Washington Capitals: Are They Meeting Our Expectations So Far?

The Washington Capitals have passed the 1/4 mark of the season. Here we’ll discuss if they are meeting some of our preseason expectations.

We are officially past the 1/4 mark of the season for the Washington Capitals. Can you believe it? This is about the time where we start to see how the team is or isn’t meeting all the of lofty expectations we sit around all summer working on. Coming into the 2019-20 season there were a number of questions. Among them:

• How would Alex Ovechkin do this year?
• How would Evgeny Kuznetsov respond from an off-year and some off-season issues?
• What about the bottom six?
• Would the Defense be better?
• Would the Offense?

I think its safe to say that so far, things have gone well. At 16-4-4 and 36 points things seem to be well in hand. But are they really? Leading the league can hide a LOT of issues. Lets take a quick look and see how things really stack up to our preseason expectations.

The Bottom Six

Here is one area that is truly hard to read. At times, the newcomers have performed perfectly. But injuries have muddled that a bit. Which six will the coaches ultimately settle on? There are certainly salary cap concerns that will have an effect on the selection.

Travis Boyd, Nic Dowd and Chandler Stephenson are all chipping in reasonably. The additions of Garnett Hathaway, Brendan Leipsic and Richard Panik have also complemented the penalty kill. Both Hathaway and Leipsic have demonstrated the kind physicality Caps fans love. Overall, I think they have been good additions and we are fortunate that we are able to see that even greater impact is possible.

On the down side, fans seem to want to be short with Panik. But I am not sure that’s fair as injuries have kept him from developing chemistry with just about anyone. However, his last couple of games have been excellent. It bodes well for the 3rd line if it continues.

Fans seem to forget that Brett Connolly had a similar slow start to the 2016-17 season before he started producing. At some point the injuries will, hopefully, subside and the Caps can field a consistent lineup for a while. Its been admirable that they have been able to insert several different players and still reap the success. A true testimony to their depth.

Status: Expectations being met, and possibly exceeded.

The Defense

Maybe the hardest area to judge so far is the defense. On the one hand we are winning. On the other we are still giving up too many high danger chances, odd man rushes and having problems getting the puck out of our zone.

Some of that is explained by the personnel turnover and new defense pairings. Some of it is due to what appears to be a bit more aggressive offensive scheme that has the defense jumping into the offensive zone more. And does the more aggressive participation mean a bit less emphasis on overall TEAM defense?

Whatever the reasons, the goalies are seeing way too many high danger chances. Both Braden Holtby and Ilya Samsonov have had to stand on their heads to keep the puck in play. But they are both settling in and, to be fair, bailing out the defense at times more than they should have to.

Due to the turnover from trading Matt Niskanen for Radko Gudas, Brooks Orpik retiring and Michael Kempy returning slower that expected after injury, it has taken time for the new personnel to gel.

But John Carlson is having a phenomenal year. And it seems it doesn’t matter who he plays with. Now that Kempy is back, they are beginning to return to last years form as a pair. They look to be the solid #1 pairing we expect.

The second and third pairs are still in a bit of flux. Right now, Gudas is being paired with Dmitry Orlov. After a few bumps, it seems to be calming down to at least be good enough. However, this is not a pairing that many would like to see come the playoffs. It’s really not ideal to have Gudas there instead of on the 3rd pair.

Currently, the 3rd pair is Jonas Siegenthaler and Nick Jensen. Siegenthaler is performing at a level that some feel is surprising. However, he has shown that he can handle things as he matures. The issue appears to be with Jensen. Right now he is struggling a bit to find chemistry but lately has found some with Siegenthaler. For now, this is OK, but I think he needs to find his way back up to the 2nd pair with Orlov. Chemistry is a funny thing and doesn’t always work the way we think it should. The good thing is we still have a bit of time for them to figure it out. How much time is uncertain.

Status: Expectations still being worked on.

The Offense

Well, if leading the league in scoring was the only measure it certainly would be a very definite success. And, all in all it does seem the offense is well on its way. Its comforting to be able to look at the roster and know that Alex, Nick Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson, and Lars Eller are just so darn dependable. You certainly know what you are going to get in terms of effort from them on most nights.

One of the early concerns was how the Caps would replace the goals lost from the departure of  Connolly, Andre Burakovsky and others. Well… right now they are doing it across the board. One of the brightest spots has been Jakub Vrana.

He appears to be continuing on his upward growth path. The only player on offense that still needs a goal is Carl Hagelin (He is a notorious slow starter and is currently missing games due to injury). The defense is chipping in as well to help the forwards.

But is all really well on offense? I think that getting back to the balanced team defense/offense style of 2017-18 is important. Otherwise, it will take us back to the days when the offense was great in the regular season but shutdown in the playoffs.

And, while exciting, I’d rather not have to think about four goal comebacks on a consistent basis. However, given the past several years of growth and success, I think the team understands the difference between winning in the regular season vs. in the playoffs and will continue to adjust over the season.

My only real concern is the more aggressive defense participation. We have seen that it can bite them in the rear with too many odd man rushes. So, it would seem that there will have to be some adjustments as they get more comfortable with the new D pairings. But for now, so far so good.

Status: Expectations met so far.

Overall Expectations Assessment

I think its important to reflect on just how long the season is. Every year there is personnel turnover. Every year there are adjustments by the rest of the league to your teams strengths. And every year, the competition gets better. As a fan, I really do want the Caps to run the table in historic proportions and win another cup while going 98-0!

But, come on, we know that’s just not possible. The reality is that the first 30ish games of the season are the “get everything worked out” phase. By game 60 you want the team to be done fine tuning and simply perfecting their execution so they can roll powerfully into the playoffs.

Some seasons it’s easier than others. Hopefully, by the time the Caps get to January new systems have become instinctual, chemistry is coming along fine and any early identified problems have been cleared up. To me, this year is no different. The Caps appear to be chugging along working it out just fine.

Yes, there are some areas for improvement. I don’t think running along at 4+ goals per games is sustainable. I’d like them to tighten up the team defense right in front of their net. I’d like to see them work out their zone exits. I’d like to see their 3rd periods be stronger when they have a lead. I think getting their chemistry settled will help reduce some of the penalties and odd man rushes.

But overall… they look to be on a good path come spring.

Let’s Go Caps!