Capitals: Pending Free Agent Digest, Who to sign and who to let walk?
Considering the recent move by the Washington Capitals extending Nicklas Backstrom to keep the great centerman in Washington for his career, what are the next contracts that need to be addressed?
Before the start of the regular season there were two very big question marks coming into the season all Capitals fans wanted answered.
It took until more than half the season to get conclusion for at least one answer.
The Washington Capitals extended one of the two big free agents to be in the coming off season, with the contract completed with Backstrom. What contract will be the next to be completed?
More from Editorials
- Alex Ovechkin will score 50 goals in 2023-24
- It’s time for Capitals fans to chill out with the Anthony Mantha hate
- The Capitals Have Several Potentially Bad Contracts
- Nic Dowd looks to show reliability
- Dylan Strome’s Contract Could Be A Steal For The Capitals
Following the new contract to Nicklas Backstrom, if the salary cap increases by the same amount as the last season ($1.5 million), the Washington Capitals will have approximately $11.9 million in cap space left.
Besides the obvious elephant in the room, Braden Holtby‘s contract, there are a number of restricted free agents to consider for extension and another key unrestricted free agent in defenseman Radko Gudas. What could the best use of the cap space look like moving forward? What players deserve to be extended, or shouldn’t be allowed to reach free agency?
The following will cover the potential contracts each key player could be given, and how that might affect the remaining cap space for the Washington Capitals.
The players age and production will determine their fit into the future plans for the Capitals. The projected contract numbers will relate to these factors, and an estimate of what they might get on the open market.
Finally, this will be done with the understanding that a number of positions will be held down for the foreseeable future. So there are limited spots for players to fill out the roster.
There will be a final roster from the perspective of the Capitals only adding from their own pipeline or existing roster, with how tight they are against the cap it is very unlikely they will add any other free agent targets.
All this will be done under the premise no trades occur to free up space or dramatically change the setup of the team.
Quick Hits
The following are players who qualify as either restricted free agents and unrestricted free agents, but in terms of the Washington Capitals future mean less of an impact than the other options.
Each are in different stages of their growth as players, and considering the Capitals go for broke every year these players could help but only at the expense of another player being traded or not signed back.
In that sense, these players might have a chance to stay on the Hershey Bears to continue developing but would need to be there so they don’t count against the NHL salary cap.
Liam O’Brien – LW(age: 25)
2019-2020 AHL Stats: 39 GP, 7 G, 14 A, +10, 56 PIM
O’Brien hasn’t been a go to forward for call ups for a few years now. He hasn’t been called up since 2017-18, hasn’t made a serious impact since the 2014-15 season. O’Brien provided 13 games, 1 G, 1A, +4, and 23 PIM in the 2014-15 season.
Since then he hasn’t provided any points and has been mired to stay in the minors unless in extreme need. His previous contract was for $700,000, and at best he will get the same contract to maintain a position in the minors and help develop the next crop of Capitals prospects and provide the grit needed to help the skill side of the team.
Current Contract: $700,000
Projected Cap Hit: $0 (NHL), $700,000 (AHL)
Connor Hobbs – D (age: 23)
2019-2020 AHL Stats: 16 GP, 1G, 1A, +1, 11 PIM
Hobbs has not made it into the NHL quite yet, but he will be knocking on the door soon. Unfortunately for Hobbs, he will have an uphill battle as the Capitals are loaded at the defense and also have a number of other defensive prospects getting close to being the next man up from the minors.
But with him still being 23, he has the chance to develop through the rest of this season and into the next for a potential fill in role as first man up especially if the Capitals move on from any of the other defensive prospects in the pipeline.
Current Contract: $720,000
Projected Cap Hit: $0 (NHL), $735,000 (AHL)
Colby WIlliams – D (age: 24)
2019-2020 AHL Stats: 17 GP, 0G, 4A, Even, 18 PIM
Williams is entering O’Brien territory where his best bet will be to get called up as an only option from the minors. Given his draft position it’s not much of a surprise, even with the Capitals ability to draft good role players late in the draft.
His low production and minimal use through the season doesn’t bode well for any future with the Caps on the NHL level. At this stage I would most likely look to cut ties with Williams and allow his spot to be given to another defensive prospect.
Current Contract: $700,000
Projected Cap Hit: $0 (NHL), $0 (AHL)
Shane Gersich – LW (age: 23)
2019-2020 AHL Stats: 34 GP, 5G, 5A, +2, 14 PIM
Gerich got the benefit of joining the Capitals near the end of the 2017-2018 just in time to jump into the playoff run, which lead to the Capitals winning their first Stanley Cup Championship. He was called on to play in two of the games in the playoffs and remained with the team as a healthy scratch the rest of the time.
While he didn’t contribute much in those few games, he was seen as a player ahead of the curve and possessed the speed the Capitals have been in need of over the last few years. He should be viewed as a potential fill in if other players, i.e. Brendan Leipsic, are not brought back.
He could factor into the bottom six within the next few seasons he might just need to bide his time and wait for the chance. In the mean time he should continue to grow and improve on his game.
Current Contract: $700,000
Projected Cap Hit: $725,000 (NHL), $700,000 (AHL)
Tyler Lewington – D (age: 25)
2019-2020 Stats: AHL: 26 GP, 2G, 3A, +7, 53 PIM
NHL: 6 GP, 0G, 0A, -2, 17 PIM
Lewington has provided a unique role for the Capitals, as he helped the team deal with the cap crunch they were feeling earlier in the season while they were hit with the injury bug. In his time helping out he was able to fill in as a forward on the fourth line and hold the spot down for a few games. But his best bet moving forward will be a fill in as the 7th defenseman, where he could be the first called up in a pinch. Sadly, there a few other defenseman who could fit this role. He does hold an advantage as he would be a sound defensive defenseman, which if you are calling up on an emergency basis it’s easier to cover a hole in offense over defense. This puts him ahead of other options like Djoos.
Current Contract: $675,000
Projected Cap Hit: $700,000 (NHL), $700,000 (AHL)
Brian Pinho – C (age: 25)
2019-2020 Stats: 42 GP, 11G, 12 A, +5, 10 PIM
There is a reason the Washington Capitals made Brian Pinho one of the last cuts in the preseason before the start of this season. He has shown good enough promise that they made sure to extend him in May prior to hitting free agency to a one year two-way contract.
He has proven why he was one of the last to get removed from the roster. Considering his production this season he has not disappointed, he has already doubled his total point production from last year in Hershey while in 30 less games.
At his age he will need to make the jump in the next few seasons or be doomed to stay in the purgatory of the AHL. To make the big league team it would mean someone else has been moved or not signed back. Thus, he will most likely need to again sign a two-way contract but his side will most likely insist on an out if he is left in the AHL after next season.
The potential spot for him to fill right away is on the bottom six in either center or right wing. This would require a trade of an existing NHL roster player, possibly Richard Panik who hasn’t produced quite as expected.
Current Contract: $700,000
Projected Cap Hit: $750,000 (NHL), $725,000 (AHL)
Lucas Johansen – D (age: 22)
2019-2020 AHL Stats: 9 GP, 0G, 2A, +3, 2 PIM
The narrative around Lucas Johansen is the possible bust status he will be labeled with as he was drafted in the first round in 2016. This is true largely because he has not been progressing as you would expect of a top flight prospect.
His amount of games in his time with Hershey has progressively dropped, while only being in nine games so far this season in the AHL. At this juncture in his development it might be best for both parties if he were to start fresh with a new team.
His current contract of $925,000 would almost definitely be reduced for him to stay in the pipeline for the Washington Capitals. But considering his own feeling on his effort when trying to make the team in the midst of the Michal Kempny injury, I think we might be again seeing the same separation playing out as it did with Riley Barber.
Unless Johansen takes a decent amount less to have a shot with the Capitals I see him looking to move on. From the Capitals standpoint this is a prospect they might need to move on from, especially considering the landscape of the other defensemen on the roster and in the pipeline.
Current Contract: $925,000
Projected Cap Hit: $0 (NHL), $700,000 (AHL)
Travis Boyd – C/RW (age: 26)
2019-2020 NHL Stats: 19 GP, 2G, 6A, +7, 2 PIM
Travis Boyd saved the Washington Capitals early in the season when dealing with the missing personnel. He came into the training camp having to prove he deserved a chance at the last forward on the roster. His ability to create offensive opportunities helped push him into the roster.
While he hasn’t gotten the best chance to get in the lineup lately, as he has been a healthy scratch over the last eight games. Boyd will most likely continue to man the first reserve role, for when he is needed for an injury or perhaps if someone else on the bottom six needs a night off.
Boyd has definitely earned a shot at the roster on a more regular basis, but with a team like the Capitals as a perennial contender it will mean the Capitals letting another regular roster spot open up by letting someone else go. Unless the team were to trade someone in the bottom six or they didn’t bring back Brendan Leipsic would be the only way he is brought back.
Current Contract: $800,000
Projected Cap Hit: $800,000 (NHL)
Christian Djoos – D (age: 25)
2019-2020 Stats: AHL: 29 GP, 3G, 17A, +8, 8 PIM
NHL: 2 GP, 0G, 0A, +1, 0 PIM
Christian Djoos’s future with the Washington Capitals was doomed the moment the arbitrator awarded him $1.25 million. With the Capitals right against the cap this year to start out, they needed to bury his contract in the minors.
Another factor which didn’t help them to bring him back was the injury that shortened his season last year and left some question marks on which defenseman they would get on a regular basis. At this juncture in his career, he would be another player who might benefit moving to a team that can afford his services for a bottom pairing defenseman.
It could be he might have a shot to move into a top four role on another team, but as long as the Capitals have Carlson, Kempny, Orlov, and Siegenthaler they will always keep him on the bottom pair. The one scenario where you could see him fitting into the NHL roster, would be the Capitals letting Gudas go free completely and essentially giving Djoos the best bet to seal the final defense spot.
Current Contract: $1,250,000
Projected Cap Hit: $1,250,000 (NHL)
Brendan Leipsic – LW (age: 25)
2019-2020 NHL Stats: 49 GP, 3G, 7A, +7, 8 PIM
Leipsic was on the way to being considered a journeyman until he reached the Washington Capitals roster. That designation is surprising for someone who still held restricted free agent status into the upcoming offseason. But he has found a niche in the fourth line of the Capitals along side Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway to revamp the struggling bottom six from last season.
He has even shown enough production of high danger scoring chances that the team has been giving him more time on the second PP unit. But he makes his living on the PK unit where his speed and willingness to take on opponents of all shapes and sizes, just ask the Anaheim Ducks, has shined through and made him hard to see anywhere esle.
This is going to be the hardest decision for the Capitals, as he has definitely found a role and could even grow further on this roster. But the Capitals will need to decide between Leipsic and the other forwards prospects knocking on the door and will need to make sure they leave room for those players.
Current Contract: $700,000
Projected Cap Hit: $1,000,000 (NHL)
Jonas Siegenthaler – D (age: 22)
2019-2020 NHL Stats: 49 GP, 2G, 7A, +10, 33 PIM
Siegenthaler has shown the reason the Washington Capitals took him in the second round back in the 2015 NHL entry draft. Early in his career there were concerns for a person of his size and lack of speed to keep up with the evolving game the NHL has undergone.
This year he has put that all together and been a pleasant surprise. Although his ability to contribute to the Caps started in the playoffs last year, when he settled in as a replacement for Kempny while he was injured at the end of the season. He picked up right where he left off, and has even begun jumping into the offensive zone more lately.
Look for him to nail down one of the long term defenseman positions. But how much will it cost the team to keep him around and could a bridge deal be an option for the next few years until Jensen finishes out his contract.
Current Contract: $714,166
Projected Cap Hit: $2,250,000 (NHL)
Radko Gudas – D (age: 29)
2019-2020 NHL Stats: 49 GP, 2G, 12A, +22, 36 PIM
Gudas jumped right in the gap left by the trade of Niskanen, and the Washington Capitals have been much more defensively sound since the trade. He continues to improve his time in the penalty box, while also setting a tone on the ice for the opponents that step into the Caps defensive zone.
For a group full of younger players who like to join the rush he gives the Capitals the steady veteran they lost when Brooks Orpik retired. His value will always extend beyond what he provides on the score card. So assessing whether he should receive an increase from the current cap hit is going to be the challenge for the Capitals organization.
There is no doubt that Gudas could continue to be a great veteran for them moving forward, but will it be at the expense of a few members of the Caps young pipeline of defenseman.
Current Contract: $2,345,000
Projected Cap Hit: $2,250,000 (NHL)
Braden Holtby – G (age: 30)
2019-2020 NHL Stats: 33 GP, 18W, 9L, 3.09 GAA, 0.897 SV%
Holtby was instrumental in winning the Stanley Cup for the Washington Capitals, while executing the save that no one will ever forget. But between his play this season and the likelihood of a contract comparable to Sergei Bobrovsky, the Capitals will most likely be saying good bye to their longtime starting goaltender.
This decision has been made easier with the emergence of Ilya Samsonov who is undefeated in his last eight starts and has much better stats than Holtby at the midway point of the season. Braden we owe you everything as fans and Capitals faithful for being what we needed at the right time to win it all. But hard decisions need to be made for the betterment of future Caps teams.
Current Contract: $6,100,000
Projected Cap Hit: $10,000,000
Secured Roster Spots
Forwards:
1st Line: Alex Ovechkin (LW), Nicklas Backstrom (C), Tom Wilson (RW)
2nd Line: Jakub Vrana (LW), Evgeny Kuznetsov (C), TJ Oshie (RW)
3rd Line: Carl Hagelin (LW), Lars Eller (C), Richard Panik (RW)
4th Line: Open (LW), Nic Dowd (C), Garnet Hathaway (RW)
Healthy Scratches: Open (1 or 2)
Defense:
1st Pair: Carlson, Kempny
2nd Pair: Orlov, Jensen
3rd Pair: Open, Open
Healthy Scratches: Open (1 or 2)
Goalie:
Starter: Samsonov/Open
Projected Signings
Projected Cap Space (post Backstrom extension): $11,900,000 (approximate)
Brendan Leipsic (4th Line LW): $1,000,000 (remaining cap: $10,900,000)
Jonas Siegenthaler (2nd/3rd Pair): $2,250,000 (remaining cap: $8,650,000)
Brian Pinho (Replace Boyd as first player in.): $750,000 (remaining cap: $7,900,000)
Christian Djoos (3rd Pair): $1,250,000 (remaining cap: $6,650,000)
Projected Players Moving On
Braden Holtby (Too Costly)
Radko Gudas (Too Costly)
Travis Boyd (Change of Scenery)
Lucas Johansen (Change of Scenery)
dark. Next. Ovechkin easily earns MVP against Islanders
This will leave the Capitals with enough room to handle call ups, most likely involving the players mentioned in the Quick Hits section. Along with existing other players under contract in the minors looking to get a shot as soon as it becomes available. This setup will also keep most of the team intact and leave the Washington Capitals room to extend the two big question marks for next season, Alex Ovechkin and Jakub Vrana, who will both be in line for new contracts.
I believe this will setup for the Capitals to bring along their top prospects to fill in at the bottom six as contracts expire. Once the contracts of Panik, Hagelin, Hathaway and Dowd start expiring look for the Capitals to move on to the next in line.
Perhaps the likes of Brian Pinho, Beck Malestlyn, Shane Gersich, and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby. As for the defensive pairs moving forward the Capitals could structure the contract for Siegenthaler to bridge until Jensen’s contract expires so he could assume that roster spot full time and open up another hole for one of Alexeyev, Fehervary, Geisser or even Hobbs. These are the names that will most likely be looking to break into the NHL roster sooner rather than later. And there will he a host of other forwards coming right behind this group: Learson, McMichael and Protas come to mind.
With the influx of this young talent on the rise the Capitals best approach in the near future to see what this team will look like without it’s three best players in the last decade (Ovechkin, Backstrom, Holtby) is to see what they have while re shuffling the cap money to the players who deserve it the most. It won’t be long now and we will be talking about a changing of the guard, this offseason will be a first critical step while allowing Holtby to walkaway, in my opinion.
Feel free to review this and comment with your thoughts on the roster as it would stand after this projection or formulate your own.