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Is Braden Holtby still the Washington Capitals Number One Goalie?

ByRichard Ball|
LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 30: Braden Holtby #70 of the Washington Capitals makes a diving stick save on a shot by Alex Tuch #89 of the Vegas Golden Knights as John Carlson #74 of the Capitals defends in the third period of Game Two of the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena on May 30, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Capitals defeated the Golden Knights 3-2. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
LAS VEGAS, NV - MAY 30: Braden Holtby #70 of the Washington Capitals makes a diving stick save on a shot by Alex Tuch #89 of the Vegas Golden Knights as John Carlson #74 of the Capitals defends in the third period of Game Two of the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Final at T-Mobile Arena on May 30, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Capitals defeated the Golden Knights 3-2. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Washington Capitals goalie Braden Holtby will always be remembered as a Stanley Cup champion. He is just not the Caps number one goalie anymore.

Every Washington Capitals fan will remember the save Braden Holtby made in Game Two of the 2017-18 Stanley Cup Finals against the Vegas Golden Knights. With the Capitals clinging to a 3-2 lead with two minutes to play, Holtby made The Save.

The Caps would win Game Two, Three, Four and Five on the way to their first Stanley Cup in team history. The series could have been completely redefined had Vegas tied the game and found a way to win for a 2-0 series lead.

That was only two seasons ago. For Holtby, that might feel like forever. He was at the pinnacle of his career. Lately, he must feel like he is approaching the end.

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In Holtby’s last 13 starts, he has a 4-8 record and a 0.868 save percentage. Twice he was pulled. In one game, the Caps recovered and stormed back to beat the Islanders.

In 10 of the 13 games, Holby has allowed three or more goals and has a 3.72 goals against average. In the 22 games before this stretch, Holtby sported a 0.910 save percentage, 18-2-4 record and 2.78 goals against average.

Meanwhile, Holtby’s understudy, Ilya Samsonov, is having a season worthy of Calder Trophy consideration. He leads the NHL with a 2.06 goals against average, is third in save percentage at 0.927 and has a 15-2-0 record.

Based on merits, Samsonov should be viewed as the Caps number one goalie now. He has allowed more than two goals only twice in his last eleven games.

Hockey Graphs posted an enlightening article on how goalies decline as they age. They came to three conclusions:

  1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
  2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticeable
  3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart

Holtby is in his age 30 season. Samsonov is in his age 22 season. The Caps should start the transition now so that Samsonov, who has been the goalie of the future, becomes the number one goalie today.

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