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Washington Capitals: Predicting when Alex Ovechkin hits 700 goals

By Michael Marzzacco

OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 31: Washington Capitals Left Wing Alex Ovechkin (8) follows through on a shot during third period National Hockey League action between the Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators on January 31, 2020, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
OTTAWA, ON - JANUARY 31: Washington Capitals Left Wing Alex Ovechkin (8) follows through on a shot during third period National Hockey League action between the Washington Capitals and Ottawa Senators on January 31, 2020, at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON, Canada. (Photo by Richard A. Whittaker/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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It’s an exciting time to be a Washington Capitals fan with Alex Ovechkin chasing 700 goals.

All of us at the Stars and Sticks team put our heads together and shared when we think Alex Ovechkin is going to hit the big number. The Washington Capitals superstar continues his quest on Super Bowl Sunday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Michael Marzzacco

Alex Ovechkin is the best goal scorer this game has ever seen and we are lucky as fans to have a front row seat to this night after night as he chases history. After a goal on Wednesday night and a pair on Friday night, Ovechkin now needs five to hit that historic number. He’s on pace to hit it on Feb. 23 when the Caps host the Penguins.

There’s one thing about watching Ovechkin and that’s you never know what to expect. With the recent tear he had with his hat tricks in back to back games leading the charge as well as eight goals in those three games before the break, I’m going to take the under and say he does it on Feb. 20 when they host the Canadiens.

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David Trice

Alex Ovechkin is on a ridiculous scoring pace currently, as he has scored 9 goals over their last 4 games good for a rate of 2.25 goals per game.  With this pace he should score number 700 against the Philadelphia Flyers on Feb. 8th, but lets be real that pace will not continue especially after a long layoff from his dual hat tricks.

Adding this recent onslaught to his remaining numbers for the season gives him a 0.7 goals per game rate overall.  Without the last four games his rate is 0.56 goals per game for the season. Given these numbers I would lean on Ovechkins career goal per game rate of 0.61 goals per game which would have him hit number 700 against Winnipeg on Feb. 25th. This would be the answer if merely based on analytics, but my estimation both by analytics and observations of his recent play I would say Ovechkin will hit number 700 against Montreal on Feb. 20th.  Although it would be cool to watch him score it against the Islanders while Barry Trotz is watching on the other bench.

CJ Witt

How many games will it take for Ovechkin to reach 700 goals? Well, right now he has 695 and he’s scoring about .7 goals per game. If my math is right that means he should score seven goals in about ten games. If that was true he would score his 700th goal on the 22nd of February against the New Jersey Devils.

Still, I tend to think he will score goal the big goal on the road on the short road trip out west on the 13-17th. Maybe against Vegas on the 17th?

Richard Ball

Alex Ovechkin is the most dominant goal scorer in the history of the NHL regardless of the fact he currently sits ninth (update to eighth if he scores again before this is posted) in most career goals. Ovehckin has played in a dead puck era. Seven of the players ahead of him played in a time when goals were scored by the bunches in the late 70’s, 80’s and early 90’s.

For his career, Ovechkin has scored at a 0.61 goals per game clip. Simple math suggests that it will be 11 more games for him to score his 700th. Fittingly, that game on February 23 will be played at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins. Ovechkin and Sydney Crosby entered the league together and will forever be compared against each other.  Wouldn’t it be nice for the game to be stopped to recognize Ovi for scoring another milestone goal with Crosby admiring him from ice level?

Jim Hoover

So, the big question is: When will Alexander Ovechkin reach 700 goals? Well, if I was any good at prognostication, I would be rich on my betting and Lottery awards. But, alas, I am not. But here it goes anyway! Despite his recent outburst in goals, I think it’s maybe a few games before he gets there. At his current pace it would be this week against either Philly or maybe the Isles. And that would be great for the fans to see at home.

But… my gut feeling is that with the next couple of games against tough Metropolitan division opponents, goals may be a bit harder to come by. Every hot player must cool a bit. Even Ovi. My inner forecaster says it will be the at the Devils game on February 22nd, in Jersey. I know this is not likely to be a popular forecast as Caps fan would LOVE to see it happen at home. But, like I said, if I were good at it I would be rich!

Colin Milford

I know it’s only 5 more goals, and he’s been completely on fire recently; but I’m going for the 700th to come on the road in Vegas against the Golden Knights.

It would be fitting to the story book career he’s had to pass the rarified milestone in the same place where he officially carved his name into the history books of the league. 700 in Vegas on the 17th.. book it.

Related Story. Ovechkin scores twice, now at 695. light

When do you think Alex Ovechkin will score his 700th goal? Let us know in the comments!

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