We now begin a first of a two part look on Washington Capitals defensemen John Carlson.
John Carlson is having a Norris Trophy winning season. This is part 1 of 2 reviewing Carlsons’ season. On-ice stats are adjusted to 5 v 5 play. His power play prowess is one of his strong suits, I will examine these stats as well in part 2. These stats are provided by http://naturalstattrick.com
Through 64 games this season, Carlson has played 1103 minutes, averaging 17.23 minutes per game. That is good for 2nd place among defensemen for the Capitals, only behind Orlov. Carlson has 1.011 PDO over that span, good for 4th place, marginally better than the 1.033 PDO from last season.
Over 80 games last season, Carlsons’ Corsi rating was 51.05 CF%. With 64 games played this year, he has a 51.28 CF% Not a big gap between the two, but improved none the less. He has seen a decrease in both SF% and GF%. He has a 50.25 SF%, down from 51.88 SF%. His GF% is more noticeably down, 53.10 GF% compared to the 59.74 GF% in 18-19. The over 5% change is something to note. However, the +3% over 50 GF% is good for a player with the minutes versus the players Carlson regularly is matched up against.
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Two of the next data points have increased this season; the other just dropped below his previous seasons’ mark in last nights game. He has a 51.71 SCF%, up from 49.86 SCF%. He has a 49.88 HDCF%, not great being below 50%, but better than the 44.93 HDCF% in 18-19. Lastly, his HDGF% is at 48.48 this season, down from 48.86 HDGF% in his last campaign. Carlson has regularly been below 50% in both High Danger Chances For, and High Danger Goals For; throughout his career.
He has seen a big drop of in Expected Goal For this season. He has a 47.34 xGF, with a rating of .74 xGF per game. With 58.65 xGF last year, he averaged .73 xGF per game. He is down to 46.16 xGA this year, improved from 62.5 xGA last year. He has gone from .78 xGA per game, to .71 xGA per game currently. This decrease in xGA is clear evidence of his defensive play improving. His 50.63 xGF% is better than the 48.37 xGF% last year.
As I will examine in Part 2, his individual scoring stats are higher than they’ve ever been. His defensive improvement has not hampered his offensive growth. In fact, his individual offensive production has increased. There is a correlation, in my opinion, to his defensive game improvement leading to higher offensive output.
To me, the most interesting stat is his usage in zone starts from faceoffs. He has 172 offensive zone starts and 302 neutral zone starts. Both are 1st among defensemen for the Capitals. He is second in defensive zone starts with 149, one faceoff behind Orlov for 1st. This is interesting because of Orlov’s usage. Orlov has the most minutes played as a defenseman at 5 v 5, but less faceoff starts; getting most of his starts on the fly. Carlson is used in many more faceoff starts, primarily done by coaches to match lines and create set plays off the faceoff.
Besides his decrease in GF%, every defensive stat has seen improvement. None as impressive as his Expected Goals Against (xGA). The numbers prove a conscious approach to being better in the defensive zone. This increase in defensive play has not affected his individual offensive production, which is at a career high. He has undoubtedly developed into a Norris winning defenseman.