Washington Capitals: Alex Ovechkin’s Twilight in Sight

Potential Contract

Alex Ovechkin is finishing off a 13 year contract worth a total of $124 million, good for an average annual value (AAV) of approximately $9.5 million. Most anyone following his career would say this has been more a team friendly contract than expected at the time of signing. Now comes the difficult task of Brian MacLellan figuring out how to reward Ovechkin while not constraining the salary cap situation that is looming. So what AAV should the Washington Capitals target to keep Alex and for how long?

For comparison sake, currently, Alex has a career point total of 1278 with 67 points last year with only 68 games played. To really address what the money could realistically look like compared to recent contracts made by similarly aged players and similar production, let’s tack on an additional 50 points for next season. This aligns with his age and point production in the previous season with 48 games (Lockout shortened season of 48 games, 56 points produced.), which is the minimum being proposed for the upcoming season. This would add up to a point total of 1328 points at the time of signing the new deal if he waits until the end of next season. These restrictions of age 35-36 and points produced of 1300 +/- 100 will be hard to compare given the other facets of Alex’s game but we will give it a crack.

First one that comes to mind is when Jarome Iginla signing with the Boston Bruins, at the time 36 years old and with career point total of 1106.  His AAV for the contract was $6 million, where he gave the team 61 points and would follow that season up with another contract with Colorado for just AAV $700,000 less. He would continue to produce and be a pivotal part of the teams construction. Now from a point production stance this is not a bad comparison, but at this juncture in Iginla’s career, he was no longer the captain of his team and was not looked to as a physical presence the same way Alex is for the Capitals.

The last comparable to this timing of the contract and production would be Patrick Marleau when he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs, at the time he was slightly older than Alex will be at 37 years old. Patrick at this point had accounted for 1082 points and was rewarded with an AAV of $6.25 million. Much like Iginla, Marleau was not the key piece to the puzzle of the Maple Leafs but merely a complementary piece to the puzzle. Again like Iginla, Marleau was not being asked to much other than to show the younger players on the team how to carry themselves as a true scoring threat. He wound up with 47 points for Toronto while playing in all 82 games.

It is rumored that Alex is said to be looking for more than $10 million AAV on his next extension with the Washington Capitals. This would actually be a good starting point for the team given what Alex means to the team, could they convince Alex his best chances to stay competitive while not increasing their cap issues further by offering him a base AAV of $10 million? This is the best the team can probably offer without majorly subtracting from their current roster construction.

Considering how important it is for Ovechkin to win another Stanley Cup Championship, he will most likely take a deal with this as the base value. When you combine his scoring prowess, with his physicality and true leadership that has been driving this team for the last 10 years; this is a no brainer if the team can get him to agree to an AAV of $10 million.

Realistically how long should both Alex and the Washington Capitals look to keep this arrangement? Given the nature Alex plays, and the current output we have come to expect and see year to year, he will most likely be playing at a high level for another three seasons with no issue. Since he mentions the possibility of playing up to 5 years, it might take the last few seasons to be signed as player and team options with potential cap relief if he chooses to walk away and finish his last few years with Dynamo Moscow.

Without being an expert in the contract constraints in the NHL, the best possible contract of 5 years for $50 million with the last two being options for both the player and the team may be the best the Washington Capitals can hope for. What would this mean for Alex’s chase for greatness?

His Chase for Greatness – 894

Is it really fair to call it a chase for greatness, especially for someone like Alex Ovechkin? Let’s take this into context, Ovechkin has lead the league in goals an NHL record 9 times so how can someone who has achieved this still be looking to reach greatness.

To be fair, if Alex decided to retire today he would go down in history as one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. If he sticks in the NHL until he reaches and passes the eternal mark of 894, there will be no debate he will be the greatest goal scorer of all time. This is the level of greatness which is being chased.

The mark set by Wayne Gretzky has long been thought unreachable. But the fact is everyone in the NHL world has been realizing the incredible chance of Alex Ovechkin doing the impossible and unseating the Great One.

Now the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not he can play at the right level for long enough to have a chance to break the record? As it stands right now, Alex has 706 goals which puts him exactly 188 goals short of tying the record and 189 goals to pass Wayne Gretzky.

If we work within the time constraints discussed already that would be a five year window, with the next three still being played at the same level we have seen from Alex. If we go based on the premise that the next season will be 48 games as opposed to a full season, due to the adjustments made by the pandemic, this will limit his production for the first season.

The last season which only had 48 games played, 2012-13 lockout season, Alex scored a league leading 32 goals. This won’t be a straight comparison, because at the time of the lockout Alex was still 27 years old, he has a lot more miles on his legs now. At the rate of 0.67 goals/game in 2012-13 over a full season, he would have finished with 55 goals.

He has reached or been close to 50 goals in six of the seven seasons since then, this equals a 0.61 goals/game rate.  Applying this to a new 48 game season equals approximately 29 goals, this would leave Alex at 735 goals by end of the year. This would leave him 160 goals from surpassing Gretzky’s 894.

Assuming by next year a full season will be possible again, we can apply a similar scoring rate if we believe Alex can maintain this level of play until he is 38 years old. Applying 0.6 goals/game over this span should have Alex scoring 98 goals over that span of 164 games, this would leave Alex having scored 833 goals. This would leave him only 62 goals short of the 895 mark.  This is making the assumption that Ovechkin will play all 48, 82 and 82 games across those three seasons.

Realistically, he will most likely miss a few games for wear and tear especially this late in his career. So for the sake of covering all possibilities, lets say he will miss 8-10 games over the next three seasons. This would translate to between 4-6 less goals at the end of the three seasons, this moves Alex back to being between 66-68 goals short of the record.

Would it really be unbelievable to see Alex Ovechkin split the remaining goals over the last two years we expect him to play? Truthfully his production will most likely be dipping by this point and could even be dramatic enough and still be at a rate he can still accomplish the impossible.

Just estimating, Alex could end up with between 35-40 goals in the third full season, and be left with just 28-33 goals to be done in the final season. Unless Ovechkin’s production suffers a severe drop off this should be attainable still with even a shortened next season, however it will be a tall task.

This would make for a great ending to a career individual achievement, but Alex is a true team player and would really only be happy if it also results in another Stanley Cup victory. In the next 5 years will we see the “Championship” window be closing or will it evolve into a new contention period?

Championship Window, wide open or closing?

It’s the subject for any team that is repeatedly in contention to win it all, what does the championship window look like? Some teams have an opening that could last just a single season or if they are lucky even a few, other teams exploit a great team situation and can leave that window open for many seasons before worrying about their opportunity escaping them. In the case of the Washington Capitals, their window has been perpetually closing over the course of several seasons.

It was first mentioned when the Washington Capitals moved away from Bruce Boudreau after repeated early playoff exits. He was given about 4 seasons, where he had the team make the playoffs each season he was allowed to conclude as the head coach. Bruce would be removed in the early stages of his 4th season starting as the head coach, due to a slow start in an environment where it appeared the team had tuned him out. To answer his player friendly stance the management group decided to tap a coach who wouldn’t play around and would push everyone regardless of their star status, Dale Hunter.

This experiment while the most successful in getting the team deeper into the playoffs while making it a true series where the result could have gone either way. It was obvious this was always going to be a temporary solution. The Washington Capitals would go out and peg one of the up and coming head coach candidates in the NHL with team familiarity, Adam Oates. This move was supposed to exploit the teams construction toward a more offensive minded team but with enough respect to the defensive side that it wouldn’t be a straight run and gun style, most well known during Boudreau’s tenure.

The outcome from this experiment didn’t last as the team would be again eliminated in the first round of the playoffs for his first season, the lockout shortage season of 2012-13. He would follow that up with the first season where the team didn’t qualify for the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons. At the end of the dreadful season, questions were risen on whether Alex Ovechkin could captain a team to the Stanley Cup and whether he was a coach killer. This was the second mention of the championship window closing. A lot of was placed in the fact the Washington Capitals had yet to have a previously experienced head coach in the NHL. So their answer to this observation was to correct the history of coaching decisions over the course of Ovechkin’s career by rectifying the normal selection type.

The team would hire newly released, long time coach of the Nashville Predators, Barry Trotz. The difference in this hire was drastic, all the previous coaches in the time Alex had been with the team had zero previous head coaching experience. Where Barry was the head coach of the Predators for 15 years, which included 7 trips to the playoffs and 2 of those included a second round appearance. Brian MacLellan was banking on the fact that Barry didn’t have a roster so offensively talented at any time while in Nashville, coupled with his ability to develop a defensive minded team would give the Capitals something they didn’t have in years; a balanced team. The hope was the talk of the championship window closing would be in the rearview with this hire coupled with the additions made immediately to fix some roster deficiencies.

But it would only take three seasons with Barry for the talk to resurface, especially with the additions made to fill holes in the roster. This is after the team finished with the best record in the NHL two years in a row.  The great thing is the team would then make some smart changes and with the determination of the team and their confidence in what Trotz was teaching would reward everyone on the team with the Stanley Cup win that had eluded this team since 1974. So now that the team got the monkey off their back, now is the start of the championship window closing again with the end in sight for Alex Ovechkin and Co.

The factors in closing a championship window can be various, the main factor is the legitimacy of the talent pool that can result in a deep run in the playoffs. So in the case of the Washington Capitals effort in getting their second championship ever, this hinges directly on what time the team has left with their captain and the ability to maintain talent around him or even beyond him. If we follow the earlier estimation of Alex signing a contract that basically spans 5 years at $10 million/year, we can start with the fact the captain will be around. With Alex Ovechkin on the roster anything is possible, what he has proven throughout his career is he can either carry the team or lead by example. Thus, as long as he remains on the roster and as a captain they will remain a championship caliber roster. And with the minimal increase in salary, the team should be able to maintain an acceptable supporting cast especially with the easy to move contracts up and down the roster.

The next thing to consider is what the roster could realistically look like in the time during Ovechkin’s final seasons and right after he departs the team. What could the team construction be when he completes his farewell tour of the NHL before heading to the motherland to end it where it all began?

Roster Construction Possibilities

As if building a championship roster wasn’t hard enough already the NHL is looking to carry over a flat salary cap. With this development and the slight increase in base salary for Alex Ovechkin to stay with the Washington Capitals beyond next season, it will be even more challenging to keep the roster competitive and room to improve. This upcoming offseason will be a testament to this paradox, considering not only will the team need to retain Alex but also need to figure out how to keep Vrana, Samsonov, and one of their 7th defensmen (van Riemsdyk  or Siegenthaler). Before signing any contract extensions, based on a flat salary cap of $81.5 million, the Washington Capitals will have around $16.33 million in space. How could this be distributed over the players up for contracts?

In theory, if Alex signs for the proposed contract we mentioned earlier ($10 million/year) this would bring their remaining salary cap to $6.33 million. For Jakub Vrana, his next contract will most likely need to be an increase on his shorter bridge contract. Vrana is completing a two year contract worth a cap hit of $3,350,000, this would most likely require an increase to about $4.5 million. A term that would favor both Vrana as well as the team will most likely be between 3-5 years, for the purpose of how it could affect the roster I would venture the term to be 4 years. This is not hard to imagine considering his production over the last few seasons, prior to his current contract during the 2nd year of his entry level contract he accounted for 27 points over 73 games (0.37 P/GM) along with 8 points in 23 playoff games where he showed up in big moments.

Since then he has only further improved his production, in the last season of his entry level contract he scored 47 points over a full 82 games (0.57 P/GM). Although he was unable to contribute in the playoffs, he then stepped it up last year, the first of his bridge contract, with 52 points in 69 games (0.75 P/GM). Again he failed to score a point in the playoffs, which keeps the increase from reaching over $5 million/year. Unfortunately it really doesn’t leave the Capitals much room to work with given the remaining holes to fill. None more important than how they move forward at the goalie position?

IIya Samsonov is going to be a restricted free agent, at the same time Lundqvist will be an unrestricted free agent.  With the ability to only protect one before the expansion draft for the Seattle Kraken, the Washington Capitals will most likely be retaining Samsonov allowing Lundqvist to move on either to chase the cup elsewhere or retire. To hold onto Samsonov beyond signing Vrana and Ovechkin the Capitals will hold only $1.83 million in cap space. Provided Samsonov proves himself a reliable number one, the team may be able to get him on a short bridge contract for around $1.5 million/year most likely for a term of 2-3 years.

Once this contract is agreed upon the cap remaining wouldn’t be enough to retain either option at 7th defensemen. For the team to resign any of these players they would need to move a contract or two to leave room for an added defenseman and backup goalie. Even with just the retention of two or three key players beyond this season will start a ripple effect on the roster that will make retaining the current construction rather difficult.

In reality, looking up and down the lineup when you relate the players age with the length of term remaining on their respective contracts the team will be losing quite a few of their current players in the time remaining with Ovechkin on the team.  As always whenever talking about Ovechkin we need to talk Backstrom, with his recent extension Backstrom will be with the team for the next 5 seasons.

This would place him finishing one season short of being with Ovechkin the whole of his career, it could be changed with a year to year setup or a short end of career contract to finish his career with the Capitals. Provided they aren’t swiped in the expansion draft the team could remain built around Kuznetsov, Wilson, Oshie, Carlson and Eller. The hard part might be keeping Wilson, at a similar rate or minimal increase from his current contract. Same can be said for Eller who will be in his mid-thirties by the end of his current contract and would need to be signed to an extension as well.

Hard part is he could request an increased salary since the team has probably gotten the better end of the deal in the long term. However, the team will most likely be different in the lower portions of the roster with Hagelin, Panik, Dowd, Hathaway, and most all of the defensive group playing elsewhere by the end of Ovechkin’s run in the NHL.

The Capitals will need to thrive on their recent draft stock to supplement the lineup as these contracts leave via free agency. The main names to look to be promoted by the end of this era are McMichael, Fehevary, Alexeyev, and of course Lapierre. Other names to be on the lookout for in the bottom portion of the lineup could be Brett Leason, Aliaksei Protas, Beck Malenstyn and Vitek Vanecek. Realistically, there will be a number of players who will need to step up and replace the firepower that will be lost over the course of the next few seasons while we get to say goodbye to Ovechkin and all he has meant to the team. The harsh reality is once Alex is finished with the Capitals this will most likely mark a time of rebuild to happen very soon after his departure.

Now what begs to be answered knowing this is the greatest possibility moving on from Alex. What will be left once Ovechkin decides to ride off into the sunset?

What will be left behind in wake of his departure from NHL?

What has Alex Ovechkin brought to us in his time with the Washington Capitals? The most memorable of course is the 2018 Stanley Cup Championship. But what else has he achieved in his time with the team? On an individual basis it is almost beyond comparison what he has accomplished. Here it is to date:

12 time All-Star

2005-06 Calder Winner (Best Rookie)

2005-06 All Rookie Team

2007-08 Art Ross Trophy Winner (Most Points)

2017-18 Conn Smythe Trophy Winner (Playoff MVP)

3 time Ted Lindsay Award Winner (League Best Player – Voted by Players)

3 time Hart Memorial Trophy Winner (League MVP)

9 time Rocket Richard Trophy Winner (Most Goals in Season)

As it stands before the start of next season, Ovechkin is 36th all time in points, 105th all time in assists, and 8th all time in goals. If Ovechkin were to play another 6 seasons, he could be new all time goal scoring leader as well as be in the top ten in points. This would be based on him averaging 30 assists over the course of the next 6 seasons as well. Given his scoring prowess is still very strong, he could possibly add at least one more Rocket Richard trophy to his case. Even though it might be hard to fathom he could also add one more year of 50 goals over the next year or two. But if not we most likely have seen his last 50 goal season. Which would leave him one short of tying Mike Bossy and Wayne Gretzky for the most by an individual player in their career.

Could the team be the winner of another Stanley Cup before Alex Ovechkin calls it quits? Absolutely, but there will be a lot of work in order to accomplish this very difficult feat. What do you think we will see before Alex leaves us, any more individual hardware? Is there another Cup in our future as well?

All I know is I am enjoying every minute we get to watch Ovechkin, we never know what we have until it is gone