Washington Capitals: Alex Ovechkin’s Twilight in Sight

His Chase for Greatness – 894

Is it really fair to call it a chase for greatness, especially for someone like Alex Ovechkin? Let’s take this into context, Ovechkin has lead the league in goals an NHL record 9 times so how can someone who has achieved this still be looking to reach greatness.

To be fair, if Alex decided to retire today he would go down in history as one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. If he sticks in the NHL until he reaches and passes the eternal mark of 894, there will be no debate he will be the greatest goal scorer of all time. This is the level of greatness which is being chased.

The mark set by Wayne Gretzky has long been thought unreachable. But the fact is everyone in the NHL world has been realizing the incredible chance of Alex Ovechkin doing the impossible and unseating the Great One.

Now the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not he can play at the right level for long enough to have a chance to break the record? As it stands right now, Alex has 706 goals which puts him exactly 188 goals short of tying the record and 189 goals to pass Wayne Gretzky.

If we work within the time constraints discussed already that would be a five year window, with the next three still being played at the same level we have seen from Alex. If we go based on the premise that the next season will be 48 games as opposed to a full season, due to the adjustments made by the pandemic, this will limit his production for the first season.

The last season which only had 48 games played, 2012-13 lockout season, Alex scored a league leading 32 goals. This won’t be a straight comparison, because at the time of the lockout Alex was still 27 years old, he has a lot more miles on his legs now. At the rate of 0.67 goals/game in 2012-13 over a full season, he would have finished with 55 goals.

He has reached or been close to 50 goals in six of the seven seasons since then, this equals a 0.61 goals/game rate.  Applying this to a new 48 game season equals approximately 29 goals, this would leave Alex at 735 goals by end of the year. This would leave him 160 goals from surpassing Gretzky’s 894.

Assuming by next year a full season will be possible again, we can apply a similar scoring rate if we believe Alex can maintain this level of play until he is 38 years old. Applying 0.6 goals/game over this span should have Alex scoring 98 goals over that span of 164 games, this would leave Alex having scored 833 goals. This would leave him only 62 goals short of the 895 mark.  This is making the assumption that Ovechkin will play all 48, 82 and 82 games across those three seasons.

Realistically, he will most likely miss a few games for wear and tear especially this late in his career. So for the sake of covering all possibilities, lets say he will miss 8-10 games over the next three seasons. This would translate to between 4-6 less goals at the end of the three seasons, this moves Alex back to being between 66-68 goals short of the record.

Would it really be unbelievable to see Alex Ovechkin split the remaining goals over the last two years we expect him to play? Truthfully his production will most likely be dipping by this point and could even be dramatic enough and still be at a rate he can still accomplish the impossible.

Just estimating, Alex could end up with between 35-40 goals in the third full season, and be left with just 28-33 goals to be done in the final season. Unless Ovechkin’s production suffers a severe drop off this should be attainable still with even a shortened next season, however it will be a tall task.

This would make for a great ending to a career individual achievement, but Alex is a true team player and would really only be happy if it also results in another Stanley Cup victory. In the next 5 years will we see the “Championship” window be closing or will it evolve into a new contention period?