Washington Capitals: John Carlson Has Been the Team’s Worst Defenseman

John Carlson should be the Washington Capitals’ best defenseman, but in fact he’s been the team’s worst defenseman through the month of October.

Through one month of the regular season, it’s clear that John Carlson has been the team’s worst defenseman. The Washington Capitals are 5-0-3 and despite injuries to Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, the 2021-2022 season looks to be promising. Alex Ovechkin is tied for the league lead in points with 15 and leads the league in goals at nine. Yeah, he’s 36-years-old, so what? His linemate, Evgeny Kuznetsov is answering all of his doubters and looks poised to have a career-year, potentially eclipsing 100 points for the first time in his career. Then, there’s John Carlson. Despite scoring the game-winning goal on the power play last night against the Arizona Coyotes, he has been a huge disappointment throughout the month of October.

Through eight games, Carlson has put up respectable numbers at first-glance. He’s scored two goals and added three goals for a plus-minus of two. The perennial Norris-trophy candidate doesn’t look good though. He’s failed the so-called “eye-test”.

John Carlson, widely viewed as one of the best defenseman in the NHL has struggled to quarterback a power-play that features Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and TJ Oshie. The man-advantage unit is a problem and Carlson is a large part of it. His lackadaisical puck management in his own zone seems to stall the power play. He often times finds himself turning the puck over or getting beat one-on-one and he is a large reason the Capitals gave up a league-leading eight short-handed goals against a season ago and have already given up two in this young campaign.

No doubt that Elias Lindholm makes a great play to out-muscle John Carlson, but this play simply cannot happen against your top defenseman. It’s no secret that the Capitals’ usually potent power play unit has struggled to gain the offensive-zone and often times when Carlson is retrieving a puck from behind his net on the man-advantage, there is no urgency. Whether by design, or not, this type of play often leads to the penalty killers being able to apply pressure and cause a turnover in the Capitals’ own-zone. It’s unacceptable and it needs to stop.

Unfortunately for the Capitals, it’s not just on the man-advantage that Carlson has struggled. Albeit, a small sample size, John Carlson has been the team’s worst 5-on-5 defender. Martin Fehervary, who is Carlson’s defensive partner, shares similar advanced statistics but in-large part due to Carlson’s play. The perennial Norris-trophy candidate has ought to be the one responsible for driving the pairing’s play, not the rookie. Carlson’s Corsi For Percentage of 45.50 is second-worst on the team and the worst out of the team’s six defenseman. He and his partner Martin Fehervary are the only two under 50 percent. His Expected Goals For Percentage of 50.45 is higher than only Fehervary and far below the rest of the team’s defensemen. What’s even more worrying, is that Carlson has put up these lackluster numbers despite the fact that 70 percent of his zone-starts have been in the offensive zone.

John Carlson

70% offensive zone starts

CF%: 45.50

xGF%: 50.45

Dmitry Orlov

36% offensive zone starts

CF%: 53.33

xGF%: 57.83

Dmitry Orlov, who has started a shift in the offensive-zone only eight times, is significantly more likely to help his team control play or score a goal than an elite-offensive defenseman who has started 21 times in the offensive zone and only 9 times in the defensive-zone. This is a serious problem and something needs to be done about it.

You may be wondering what these two statistics actually mean though. Put simply, Corsi is a way to measure puck possession. It takes shots on goal, shots that go wide of the net, and blocked shots to show a clearer picture of the game than just shots-on-goal does. Typically, good things happen when you control the puck. xGF% is another useful indicator, it measures how likely a shot attempt has of going into the net. A percentage over 50 for both metrics generally means a player is helping his team control play and generating high-quality opportunities.

John Carlson has been put in situations where his team should be controlling the play and generating chances, yet his numbers indicate that isn’t always happening. On the flipside, you have Dmitry Orlov who has been put in situations where his team is not controlling the play, yet, with him on the ice, the Capitals are able to take control of the play and generate scoring-chances.

John Carlson needs to step up in a big way if the Capitals are to continue to be one of the elite teams in the NHL.