Ilya Samsonov Needs to Take a Seat on the Bench

Braden Holtby left the Washington Capitals at the end of the 2019-2020 season with Ilya Samsonov primed to be his replacement. Here we are, midway through the 2021-2022 season and Samsonov continues to be wildly inconsistent. The Capitals either need to roll with Vitek Vanecek, for better or for worse, or they need to acquire a veteran goaltender like Braden Holtby for their 2021-2022 Stanley Cup run.

The Capitals are a veteran team competing to win another Stanley Cup and Samsonov simply doesn’t fit into that picture. Samsonov has split time with Vitek Vanecek once again between the pipes and the latter has clearly outplayed him. Someone that argues otherwise is just plain wrong. Here’s why.

Overall on the season, Ilya Samsonov is 13-4-3 with a .903 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.77. These are mediocre numbers, at best. He does lead the team in shutouts with three, but also has given up four or more goals in five games. Samsonov’s quality start percentage of .368 is abysmal, ranking in the bottom of the NHL. A quality start is defined as a game when the goalie stops more than the median save percentage for the NHL or gives up less than three goals while stopping .885 or more of the shots that they faced.

For reference, the league average for quality start percentage is .530 and anything north of .600 is excellent. Vanecek is at .471, while not outstanding, it’s still far better than his running-mate.

When you look at Vitek Vanecek’s stats, he’s been better overall and more consistent by a wide margin. Vitek is 7-4-5 with a .911 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.46. Vanecek has registered only one shutout but on the flipside, he’s allowed four or more goals only once this season.

The Capitals can score plenty of goals, they don’t need a goaltender to post shutouts. What they need is a goaltender that keeps them close, game after game. Allowing two goals or less would be ideal, but settling on Vanecek who hardly ever gives up more than three is a viable option in-net.

If the organization isn’t satisfied with Vanecek taking the reigns full-time, it’s time to take a long look at a veteran guy like Braden Holtby. A familiar friend, Holtby seems to have found his game once again this season in Dallas. As a member of the Stars, who are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, Holtby has been excellent despite a 6-8-1 record. Braden Holtby has posted a .920 save percentage and a goals against average of 2.56. Holtby has a quality start percentage of .625 which is mere percentage points below what it was during his Vezina-winning 2010-2011 campaign.

At the end of the day, the goaltending carousel in DC needs to come to an end. Vanecek, Holtby or someone else needs to be the number one netminder going forward.