Washington Capitals Playoffs: Top 5 reasons they will win the Stanley Cup

#4 Defense, PK, and physicality

I decided to group defense, penalty kill, and the Caps physical game together on one slide. If there’s any good chance the Caps can play David and upset the Goliath’s that are the Florida Panthers, the Caps need to step up their physical game. While the Panthers have speed, the Caps have the edge physically.

Here were the defensive pairings from Sunday’s practice via Samantha Pell of The Washington Post:

Fehervary-Carlson
Orlov-Jensen
TvR-Schultz

Here’s what the penalty kill has looked like lately:

PK 1: Dowd, Wilson, TvR, Jensen

PK 2: Larsson, Eller, Fehervary, Carlson

These might or might not work but it’s hard to get a read on it. You can look at how the Caps did in early March to mid April or you can look at how they ended the season with four losses in a row. Since this is a positive article let’s look at the former.

The Caps penalty kill is in the middle of the pack at 12th in the NHL in the regular season with a success rate of 80.4 percent The Panthers are below that at 16th with a success rate of 79.5 percent. The Caps are also 21st in the league in goals allowed while the Panthers are just behind them at 20th. So the Caps do have the edge defensively even if it’s for a slight.

#3 Offensive firepower

Yes the Panthers have the edge when it comes to offense. And hats off to them. They led the league in goals scored with 337, 25 goals ahead of the second place Toronto Maple Leafs. The Caps were a respectable 10th in the league despite their challenges that they faced this season with 270 goals scored.

Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Sheary
Johansson-Backstrom-Wilson
Mantha-Eller-Oshie
Larsson-Dowd-Hathaway

It is encouraging seeing Alex Ovechkin not only return to practice but take rushes in his rightful spot on the top line. He told the media after practice that he feels good and that he could have played the final three games of the regular season if they were postseason games. They weren’t and with an upper body injury, the Caps wanted to be cautious.

“We’ll see”, Ovechkin said when asked if he would play in Tuesday night’s Game 1.

The Caps power play was inconsistent but played better as the team got hotter. They finished 23rd in the league with a success rate of 18.8 percent. Believe it or not, the Panthers aren’t even first in the league in power play success. They’re fifth at 24.4 percent.

This could very well be a toss up if the Caps match the Panthers speed for speed.

#2 The Presidents Trophy curse

The Caps will have to get past the first round if they want to win the Stanley Cup and they might get a few bounces and extra help from the hockey gods. The Panthers finished with a league best 58-18-6 with 122 points, three points ahead of the Colorado Avalanche and six points ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes.

Are the Caps a lucky or unlucky 13? Let’s assume lucky since this is an article about positive vibes. That’s right they’re 13th in the NHL with a 44-26-12 record with 100 points. They were just three points behind the Pittsburgh Penguins and could have very well faced the New York Rangers.

Since this is an article filled with positive vibes you don’t have to worry about me reminding you what happened when they got the President’s Trophy in their three times in franchise history. To quote Lewis from Princess and the Frog to make you laugh, “It didn’t end well.”

On a more serious note, it also didn’t end well for the last few President’s Trophy winners since the Caps last won it in 2017 either. The Nashville Predators lost in the second round. The Tampa Bay Lightning lost in the first round. The Boston Bruins lost in the second round and last season the Colorado Avalanche lost in the second round. Let’s eliminate another team from Florida in the first round!

#1 Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom want another ring

The number one reason the Caps will win the Stanley Cup is because of the heart and drive that Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom have to want to win another Cup and ring. Ovechkin and Backstrom, who between them own the Capitals records for career playoff goals, assists, points, and games played, are expected to extend their shared franchise benchmark for most years in the postseason to 14.

Ovechkin and Backstrom are two of 14 active players with at least 100 career playoff points and one of four sets of current teammates in the playoffs. Ovechkin has 71 career playoff goals in 141 games, the most among active players and one back of tying Esa Tikkanen and Patrick Marleau for 14th place in NHL history.

Ovechkin is also tied for ninth place in the Stanley Cup playoffs record books with 27 power play goals, trailing only Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins by one. Meanwhile, Backstrom sits at 72 career playoff assists in 133 games, five shy of cracking the NHL’s top 50 in career playoff assists.

It was emotional when Ovechkin and Backstrom skated with the Stanley Cup in 2018 and we can only hope for them to work hard enough and get a little bit of puck luck to do it again in 2022. They can do it.