Predicting the Capitals top 5 goal scorers for 2022
We’ve been making predictions after predictions after predictions about the Washington Capitals as we count down the days until training camp. Now it’s time to predict the top five goal scorers of the season.
Before we predict the top five goal scorers of this season though let’s list the top five goal scorers of last season. Those are John Carlson, Conor Sheary, Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson and Alex Ovechkin.
Obviously that list will look at lot different this year with the Tom Wilson injury. So let’s predict who will step up in the goal scoring department this year.
#5 Anthony Mantha
Anthony Mantha missed a lot of time last season due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery in November and came back in March playing in a total of 37 games.
In those 37 games Mantha had nine goals and 14 assists for 23 points. Obviously those numbers will be better this season if Mantha plays a full 82 games.
Mantha’s best season came when he scored 24 goals. He could easily score at least 20 and possibly get up to 24 if he goes a full season healthy.
If he can do that maybe that means the Caps won the trade in 2021 when they sent Jakub Vrana to the Detroit Red Wings for Mantha’s services.
#4 T.J. Oshie
Like Anthony Mantha in the previous slide, T.J. Oshie will have a bounce back season after missing most of last season due to injury.
Oshie played in 44 games, missing nearly half the games, and scored just 11 goals and 14 assists for 25 points. In the playoffs he heated up.
Oshie had six goals and one assist for seven points in six games. He was easily MVP of that series despite the Capitals loss.
Oshie got off to a hot start in the regular season before his first injury. Then it was injuries or COVID that limited his play. When he came back later in the season he started to get hot and we saw what he can do when he’s healthy in the playoffs.
Oshie’s best season statistically was when he scored 33 goals in 2016-17. I don’t think he’ll reach 33 but he’ll certainly be in that 25-30 goal range.
Oshie and Mantha are back in town taking part in informal skates. An even more encouraging sign is that they are wearing normal red top six jerseys and not the light blue non contact sweaters.
In off the ice news, T.J. and his wife Lauren are expecting a fourth child. We congratulate them.
#3 Dylan Strome
Dylan Strome had a good season with the Chicago Blackhawks last year and he’ll have an even better season in his first year with the Capitals. Will it be his only year? That remains to be seen.
“It was a crazy couple of days. … I’m very excited and very fortunate that a team like Washington reached out, and I couldn’t be happier to get started.”
The Caps signed him to a one year, $3.5 million contract to replace Nicklas Backstrom who is sidelined for possibly all of the season.
Strome had a career high 22 goals and he could easily reach the 25-30 goal range on a team like the Capitals. Who knows who he’ll center but he did center a top line with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat last season.
Strome added:
“I like to produce offense, like to help on the power play, wherever that may be. … I think that’s where I’m at my best: trying to feed my wingers. I think I played with a few very, very good wingers in my time in Chicago. And I’m sure I’ll play with some very good ones as well in Washington. So I’m looking forward to that.”
#2 Evgeny Kuznetsov
Evgeny Kuznetsov will be the second leading scorer on the Capitals in goals and possibly first in assists. After a good revenge tour last year, he’s ready for an even bigger season centering the top line.
Kuznetsov went from nine goals in 2021 to 24 last season. He’ll go from 24 last season to 33 this season. That’s right we’ll give him 33 goals this season. That would be a career high.
This was an important season last year. And this year it’ll be about proving that last year was no fluke.
His advanced stats were decent in the regular season with a 49.68 percent Corsi For percentage, a 48.18 percent Expected Goals For percentage, and a 44.87 percent High Danger Chances For.
What will really help Kuznetsov have a breakout year is if he carries over regular season success to the postseason. He did it before in 2018. Sadly he didn’t have the magic last spring.
His advanced stats dropped to a Corsi For percentage of 41.09 percent, a 38.16 percent Expected Goals For percentage but did have a 58.33 percent High Danger Chances For.
Kuznetsov should be centering the top line most of if not the entire season. Alex Ovechkin will be by his side and there will be some training camp competition for the right side of the top line with Tom Wilson out.
#1 Alex Ovechkin
You know what they say about Russian machines and not breaking.
Alex Ovechkin will once again lead the Capitals in goal scoring this season. Will he reach 50 goals is the question but I think it’s a safe bet he’ll get between 40 and 50 this season.
Ovechkin needed to average 33 goals a season for five years after he signed his contract extension to catch Wayne Gretzky. Thanks to a 50 goal season last year that number comes down to 28.75 goals per season over the next four years.
The only time Ovechkin had under 30 goals in a season was in the pandemic shortened 2021 season where he had 24 with the season shortened to 56 games.
This season may be Ovechkin’s last 50 goal season or second to last. It’s important he scores as many goals as he can now as age will catch up with him eventually. And it’ll make life easier down the road if he scores a lot now.
While we don’t know how many goals Ovechkin will end up with this season it’s a safe bet to assume that he will lead the Capitals in goal scoring once again this season. There’s no doubt in my mind that he has another 50 goal season in him.
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Those are who we think are the top 5 goal scorers will be on the Capitals this season. Who are your top five?