Predicting when Alex Ovechkin will break Wayne Gretzky’s ultimate record

Alex Ovechkin is 37 and still making history for the Washington Capitals and all of the NHL. What used to be an IF is now a WHEN will he catch Wayne Gretzky? Glad you asked!

So let’s break down how Ovechkin is doing thus far this season, how he could finish and how soon will he be able to get to 894.

Ovechkin won the NHL first star of the month with a killer December. He had 13 goals in 15 games along with nine assists and two hat tricks. He averaged 20:07 minutes per game and had 71 shots on goal.

Ovechkin’s two hat tricks were his 29th and 30th of his storied career. He leads all of the NHL in that category. He’s on pace to score 50 goals.

So far this season entering 2023 Ovechkin has 26 goals and 19 assists for 45 points. He entered the year with 780 goals and now has 806 putting him 88 behind the great one.

Say Ovechkin reaches 50 goals at the end of the regular season. That’ll bring his career total to 830, needing 64.

Next season Ovechkin will be 38 years old but if he has at least 40 goals he’ll be within strike distance of Gretzky in the 2024-25 season.

A 40 goal season would require just 24 goals to catch the great one and if he stays hot it could come in midseason around he holidays of 2024 or a little after.

The question is what kind of team will the Capitals be at that point in time. Will they be one and done like the last four years or do they get a legitimate kick at the can. If they do one of those springs then that 2024-25 season could be something special.

One of the most special things about Ovechkin is he’s rare. There’s a number one draft pick in every sport and in every year. But some players turn out to be busts while others seize the moment.

From the very first shift at what was then called the MCI Center to his hat trick the other day at Capital One Arena, Ovechkin has seized that number one draft selection and ran with it.