Predicting when Alex Ovechkin will reach 1,500 career points

The other day we wrote about how Alex Ovechkin can break a record this season. He not only can do that but he can also reach a milestone. The Washington Capitals captain sits at 1,485 career points needing just 15 points to reach 1,500.

If, I’m sorry, when Ovechkin reaches 1,500 career points, he will join Jaromir Jagr as the just the second player born outside of Canada to reach the milestone. He can become the 16th player in NHL history to teach the milestone and the eighth to do it with one franchise.

The others that reached it with one team were Wayne Gretzky with the Edmonton Oilers, Mario Lemieux with the Pittsburgh Penguins, Sidney Crosby with the Penguins, Steve Yzerman with the Detroit Red Wings, Joe Sakic with Colorado/Quebec, Gordie Howe with Detroit, and Ray Borque with the Boston Bruins.

What has helped Ovechkin out is he has been known to start out the season hot and continue all the way through. Even if he cools off, his torrid start gets him closer to where he needs to be.

The following numbers I’m about to share are his point totals from the first month since making his NHL debut in 2005: 13, 12, 15, 5, 23, 13, 9, 3, 15, 6, 12, 6, 15, 14, 18, 7, 15, 8.

Some of these numbers are a little skewed. Some first months of the season were shorter than others due to lockouts, pandemics, etc. In the 2019 20 season it started on October 2nd which is early, hence the 18 points that season.

But based on these numbers, Ovechkin has reached 15 points or more in the first month of the season six times during his 18 year career including most recently in October 2021.

Since the other years were different times and featured a younger Ovi I’ll look at the number of games from October 21 as a measuring stick. Ovechkin recorded 15 points in eight games that first month of the season with nine goals and six assists.

Say Ovechkin guns for that 50 goal plateau this upcoming season and gets it. Well he’ll be way over 1,500 career points if that happens.

But if he wants to he’ll need a hot start. October this upcoming season will consist of eight games. So if he has the hot start like he did in October 2021 you’re looking at Ovechkin reaching the 1,500 point milestone on October 29 against the San Jose Sharks at Capital One Arena.

Ovechkin will do it that night but even if he doesn’t don’t fret because the next game against the New York Islanders on Nov. 2 is also on home ice.