Through 19 games of the 2025-26 season, the Washington Capitals are not where a lot of people expected them to be. They are 9-8-2 heading into Wednesday's game at home against the struggling Edmonton Oilers and two points on the outside looking in on an Eastern Conference playoff spot.
That may not seem like a big deal in November, but we are eight days away from the American Thanksgiving, where teams and their playoff chances are broken down. In or right around a playoff berth is where teams want to be on the last Thursday in November.
There are a number of factors as to why Washington is where they are, but ESPN shed some light on all 32 teams and their playoff chances. They had a very positive outlook for a team that is expected to return to the playoffs next spring in the Nation's Capital.
ESPN paints promising Capitals playoff outlook despite their current place in the standings
ESPN uses The Stathletes model as a predictor for playoff chances, and the Capitlas are a lot higher than you might think they would be. Actually, it's a lot higher than you might think it would be. It's at 90.4% that they'll make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in April.
"The Capitals continue to chug along with a combination of dependable veterans, energizing young players, and solid team defense in front of outstanding goaltending. (Alex) Ovechkin scored goal No. 900 and is starting to heat up. Their leading scorer has been Tom Wilson (nine goals, nine assists), who is down bad to earn a Canadian Olympic team spot,'' Greg Wyshynski wrote.
Losing Pierre-Luc Dubois to an injury has been a big loss and will be while he is out. Replacing internally hasn't been easy, and it's too early for the front office to look outside to find a replacement. Logan Thompson has carried them in goal, even if he is playing with a chip on his shoulder.
The power play has been a struggle, and it is something Washington needs to turn around. There is too much talent for it to rank near the bottom of the league. If they ever get that figured out, then the Capitals will vault up the standings.
The good news about the Eastern Conference is that a lot of teams are in the same boat as Washington. Dealing with injuries and underperforming in some areas. The Capitals, however, have Ovechkin, and nobody else has that. Despite his age, he's still one of the gifted goal-scorers in the NHL.
Having a 90.4% chance to make the playoffs is something Washington will consider how the first quarter of the season has gone. As teams have proved before, just getting into the playoffs is all you need to do. Once you're there, then you can make a run. That's all the Capitals need to do: be in the top 8 when the regular season ends. It feels like the odds are in their favor of that happening, regardless of what the standings tell us today.