When will Alexander Ovechkin surpass Wayne Gretzky? Live tracker and predictions

With two goals last night in their win over the Calgary Flames, Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin needs 51 to tie and 52 to surpass Wayne Gretzky for number one all time in goals scored in NHL history. The countdown is on here at Stars and Sticks.

Ovechkin's first goal was his 20th of the season which marked his 19th consecutive year with at least 20 goals, joining him with just Gordie Howe (22) and Brendan Shannahan (also 19 consecutive seasons). His second helped the Caps get back in a playoff spot with 15 games to play. Now they're back home.

For this exercise since we have 51 goals to go at the start of this, we're going to repost the two goals he had in Calgary. Once that is done myself and CJ will give our predictions and a brief summary as to when and not if Ovechkin will achieve the feat.

In between all that we'll have his best goals. Your favorites. CJ's favorites. And my favorites. We'll keep adding along as the great eight gets closer so keep checking back as we celebrate as a hockey community this incredible and once in a generation and possibly lifetime milestone.

Before we get to our predictions here's flashbacks of Ovechkin's first goal, his 500th, his 700th, and 802nd. We'll keep adding for fun as we get along.

Michael: Prediction early 2025-26 season

""Ovechkin needs to average 25 goals the next two seasons which is how much is left under his contract. That is very doable and if he can reach at least 30 goals next season he'll be in the drivers seat to pass Gretzky before Thanksgiving break the following season. Jack Hughes once said folks pay to watch him play. Around here in the DMV we pay to watch the great eight play and for good reason." "

Michael

CJ: Prediction around American Thanksgiving 2025-26

""If Ovechkin ends this season at 28-30 goals at seasons end he'll need 42-44 to catch Gretzky. I think it's unrealistic to expect him at 39 years old to get that many goals next season which unfortunately means we have to wait until the 2025-26 season, that also being his last season under his current contract. I'm guessing maybe somewhere around American Thanksgiving 2025 but he is Ovechkin. He's proven for nearly 20 years he is some kind of weird goal scoring mutant. If he can get 40 plus at age 39 it shouldn't surprise anyone either.""

CJ

This post will update after each Ovechkin goal moving forward. Stay tuned and follow along in the Gr8 Chase!

Update 3/20/24: Well that didn't take long as Ovechkin scored the 844th and 845th goals of his career in a 7-3 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The first goal was a PPG from the office.

That goal came in the 2nd period. This next one came in the thrid on an even strength snipe from the office to put him at 49 away from tying Gretzky.

Updated 3/22: Ovechkin struck again in tonight's 7-6 shootout win over the Carolina Hurricanes. This one came on the power play for his 846th goal of his career and 24th of the season, putting him 48 away from tying Gretzky.

Updated 3/25/24: In yesterday's game against the Winnipeg Jets, Alex Ovechkin added not one but TWO third period goals as the Caps would win 3-0.

Ovechkin has up to this point eight goals in his last five games.

Updated 4/5/24: In last night's 4-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Alex Ovechkin was the lone Capital who scored and it was a PPG. It was his 27th goal of the season and 849th of his career to put him 45 away from tying Gretzky.

7:36 p.m. Less than 24 hours later with the Caps in Carolina, Ovi struck for the 850th of his career. Now he needs 45 to pass Gretzky.

8:05 p.m.: He did it again in the McNugget Minute for 851.

Updated 4/9 at 9 p.m.: Ovi is now the ONLY player in NHL hisotry to record the most 30 goal seasons. Caps currenlty lead the Red Wings in a game with playoff implications.

Updated Thursday April 18 at the conclusion of the 2023-24 regular season: Wowzers. We've got the Capitals back in the playoffs and on Tuesday night in their win over Philly, Ovi would get the road party started.

It was his 31st of the season and 853 in his career. He enters next season needing 41 to tie and 42 to pass Gretzky.

It's the 50th season of Washington Capitals hockey and Alex Ovechkin is off to a scorching start in the 2024-25 campaign. Here are the goals.

Oct. 19 at New Jersey Devils: Ovechkin finally struck for his first goal of the season and 854th of his career.

Oct. 23 vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Ovechkin struck for his first goal of the season on Capital One Arena ice to put him at 855. It came in overtime to win the game and jump start the Caps to their hottest start in franchise history up to the point of this being updated around the New Years.

Oct. 29 vs. New York Rangers: Ovechkin struck not once but twice. That's 856 and 857.

Oct. 31 vs. Montreal Canadiens: Ovechkin had a goal once again and would begin his hot run right before he hurt his left fibula. More on that later in this reading. That would be 858 on his career.

Nov. 2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets: Ovi struck again for 859.

Nov. 3 at Carolina Hurricanes: Ovechkin would hit 860 in a divisional loss to the Canes.

Nov. 6 vs. Nahville Predators: Back in the Screaming Eagle meant back to Ovi scoring in the Screaming Eagle which he did in a Caps win that night for 861.

Nov. 9 at St. Louis Blues: Ovechkin scored twice for his 862nd and 863rd goals as the Caps put up a snowman in St. Louis in an 8-1 win.

Nov. 17 at Vegas Golden Knights: In a big road win over Vegas it was Ovi who stole the show at T-Mobile Arena in the form of a hat trick to put him at 864, 865, and 866.

Nov. 18 at Utah Hockey Club: Ovechkin scored twice before he hurt his left fibula which paused the GR8 Chase for a bit. It came on a hit by Brock McBain and sidelined the captain through the holiday break. But the story as we know it is far from over. It would put him at 867 and 868 until his triumphant return to the ice.

Dec. 28 at Toronto Maple Leafs: In his first game back Ovechkin would cash in for his 869th career goal which puts him at 25 goals away from tying and 26 away from passing the Great One.

Dec. 29 at Detroit Red Wings: Despite the 4-2 loss, Ovechkin scored for the second straight night to put him at 870 on his career, needing just 24 more goals to catch Gretzky.

Jan. 2, 2025: In their first home contest of the calendar year of 2025, Ovi struck to tie the game in the second period on the power play to put him 23 goals away from Gretzky.

Updated Jan. 4, 2025: After scoring on Marc-Andre Fleury the other night for what could be the final time, Ovi was at it again this time on a Saturday afternoon against former coach Peter Laviolette and the New York Rangers. He also did it in front of an ESPN national TV audience for his 19th goal of the season and the 872nd of his career. He's 22 away from tying and 23 away from catching Gretzky.

Jan. 11: Alex Ovechkin would notch his 873rd career goal to put him at 21 away from tying and 22 away from passing the Great One. It came in the form of an empty net goal to put a stamp on a 4-1 win over the Predators in Nashville.