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Washington Capitals: Can Alex Ovechkin Become The Greatest Goal Scorer?

By CJ Witt

RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 22: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) celebrates after scoring in the first period during a game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Washington Capitals on April 22, 2019 at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - APRIL 22: Washington Capitals left wing Alex Ovechkin (8) celebrates after scoring in the first period during a game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Washington Capitals on April 22, 2019 at the PNC Arena in Raleigh, NC. (Photo by Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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Can Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin become the greatest goal-scorer of all-time?

He’s the greatest goal scorer of his generation. If anyone debates that you need to end the conversation, because you’re talking into a black hole, your words go in and never come back out. There is only one hockey player in the world who you can pretty much guarantee will score at least forty goals every single season. It’s no secret, that man is Washington Capitals left winger Alex Ovechkin.

Since coming into the league in the 2005-06 NHL season Ovechkin has played thirteen full seasons. He’s hit the forty goal mark in ten of those seasons. He’s also hit the fifty goal mark in eight of those seasons.

I’m not counting the lockout season since that was not a full season. That being said he had 32 goals in 48 games and if he played the entire season he was on pace for about 54 goals.

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There is no doubt, Ovechkin is the best goal scorer of his time and arguably the best of all time. How close is he to being the best of all time though and is it possible that Ovechkin catches “The Great One”?

The current record held by Wayne Gretzky is at 894. Ovechkin is currently at 658. At age 33 will Ovechkin be able to score over 200 goals to officially become the greatest goal scorer ever?

Lets just guess how many goals Ovechkin could score by season. There has been no sign of slowing down by the big Russian. I think we can probably give him , at least, one more season of fifty plus goals. Just give him exactly fifty next season. That puts him at 708.

I doubt Ovechkin is the kind of players who will just fall off the map. Fifty goals one year then, boom, down to 20, down to 12 and into obscurity. Based on training videos you see of him he works hard and takes care of his body. So after the assumed fifty goals this year I personally would give him two more forty plus goal seasons. That’s at least eighty more goals to put him at 788.

At this point he’d be going into the season at age thirty-six. Again, this is assuming his production doesn’t fall off a cliff and even more important possibly is staying healthy. Ovechkin should still be getting plenty of goals at this age.

Now lets give him just thirty goals for the next two seasons. Just thirty, not thirty-eight one year and thirty-four the next. Lets just round down to thirty. That gives him sixty more goals to put his total at 848.

Now he’s thirty-eight years old and hopefully still healthy and motivated to continue to take care of himself. I still think  he’s good for at least twenty goals for the next two seasons. Give him forty more goals and now he has 888.

If we’re anywhere close in our assumptions that puts Ovechkin just six goals behind Wayne Gretzky at age forty. Playing at forty isn’t odd. Just look at Joe Thornton right now, playing at forty and still putting up respectable numbers. You could also look at Jaromir Jagr who played well into his forties and put up good numbers as well.

At this point I’d say two things. One, I just gave him goals by the tens. A fifty, two forties, two thirties and two twenties. If you gave him exact numbers, like say, 52 one year then 44 the next and 40 after that the numbers will get to Gretzky even faster. He could be above Gretzky by age forty.

Two, I’ve given Ovechkin a pretty natural decline. Gradually he’ll probably slowly go down from low fifties to and get his way to the mid twenties before calling it a career.

This is all just a guess. This isn’t taking injury into account. You never know when a shot can hit just the right spot in the foot, leg or hand and now your missing weeks or months and in Ovechkin’s case precious time.

We also don’t know exactly where Ovechkin will be playing after the 2020-21 season. Ovechkin recently “hinted” at retirement after his current contract expires saying he needs to think about his health before making a decision about his future.

I doubt Ovechkin would sign somewhere else in the NHL after his current contract expires. Signing in another country however is a different story. It’s very possible Ovechkin returns to Russia and the KHL to finish his playing career.

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It all just depends. If everything goes right it’s possible we’ve been watching the best goal scorer in the history of the game. If Ovechkin stays healthy and stays in the NHL I think it’s incredibly possibly if not likely he catches Gretzky around age forty.

We’ll just have to figure out how important that record is for “The Great Eight”.

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