Early 2022 predictions for John Carlson

After making some early predictions on Martin Fehervary, it’s time to look at his potential partner on the Washington Capitals this season in John Carlson.

Carlson had a breakout year last season. He scored a career high 17 goals and added 54 assists for 71 points. While his defensive game is questionable at times, it’s his offense that provides a spark for the Capitals.

The question this season is can Carlson improve his defense while continuing to put up impressive offensive numbers?

If Carlson can put up good numbers he could easily have a 20 goal season like Mike Green once did. If he’s unselfish he could match or even pass his career high of 60 assists that he set in 2019-20.

But as far as predictions go for Carlson I realistically see him scoring 15 goals and adding 50 assists while seeing his defense improve. It has to.

The defense will look a lot different but Carlson will be the one constant. Him, Fehervary, Dmitry Orlov and Nick Jensen are all key returners to the blue line.

Carlson’s advanced stats were okay last season. In the regular season his Corsi For percentage came out to 50.73 percent, his Expected Goals For percentage at 49.52 percent, and his High Danger Chances For percentage at 49.90 percent, via Natural Stat Trick.

In the playoffs those advanced stats dipped. Not surprised since the rest of the team seemed to struggle except for T.J. Oshie. Carlson’s Corsi For percentage came out to 44.20 percent, his Expected Goals For percentage at 50.63 percent and his High Danger Chances For percentage at 60.42.

When Carlson was paired with Fehervary their combined Corsi For percentage came out to 49.28 percent, their Expected Goals For percentage at 48.06 percent and their High Danger Chances For percentage at 49.51 percent.

Carlson was a little better without Fehervary. His Corsi For percentage was at 56.80 percent, his Expected Goals For percentage came out to 56.16 percent and his High Danger Chances For percentage came out to 51.90 percent.