Which Eastern Conference Match-Up is the Washington Capitals Biggest Threat?

There are many exciting match-ups for the Washington Capitals this season but which Eastern Conference foe provides the toughest match-up.

Match-ups. It’s something a lot of fans don’t pay attention to until it’s usually too late. Which team does your team do well against and on the flip side not do so well against? We can go back to 2010 where the top seeded Washington Capitals lost in the first round to the Montreal Canadiens. It was after that series then general manager George McPhee said he wasn’t thrilled with that match-up.

Match-ups are important. Getting lucky in these situations can mean a whole lot. I know the old saying, “To be the best you have to beat the best.”

Sometimes having someone else beat the best isn’t the worst thing. It could be the difference in winning a Cup and losing in the first round.

With the 2019-20 season not even having started yet we don’t exactly know who the Capitals need to worry about. When all is said and done maybe there is no team to worry about, unlikely, but still a possibility.

We can however assume who will be a good or great team and make ourselves look stupid later. These are the teams and these are the match-ups the Caps are going to have to deal with at some point if they want to win another Stanley Cup. With that being said let’s go ahead and take a look on who could the Capitals match-up with in a potential deep playoff run.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The 2018 Eastern Conference Final and what a lot of people thought could have been the 2019 conference final. Both the Capitals and Lightning underperformed in the first round, however, and both had a much shorter run than both had hoped being knocked out early.

Don’t expect either team to go anywhere though. Both teams will once again be at the top of the Eastern Conference standings and for the Capitals to make another deep run a meeting vs the Lightning may be in order. Here’s how the Caps did against the Bolts last season.

Record  1-1-1

Corsi For% – 55%

Scoring Chance For% – 52.21%

High Danger Corsi For% – 45.65%

Shooting% – 9.09%

Save% – 90.14%

High Danger Save% – 84.20%

Power play% – 26.7%

Penalty Kill% – 60%

These stats tell us the Capitals tended to control play. Controlling play also gave the Caps an advantage in scoring chances which allowed them to out score the Lightning 8-7 while five-on-five.

The number to not like here is the high danger chances. Tampa ended up with more chances in high danger areas which surely resulted in a tighter score. The Bolts also had a pretty bad 66.67% high danger save percentage vs Washington last season. Tampa might have had more high danger chances but the Caps were able to score of these chances a lot easier.

Special teams were pretty big in this series last season. While the power play was very effective the penalty kill needs work. You can’t expect to beat great teams, especially as great a team as Tampa killing only 60% of the penalties you take.

Tampa Bay was by far the best team in the regular season and the Capitals played very well against them. Both teams might take a small step back this season but I wouldn’t expect anything dramatic. If the Caps can continue to play well against the Lightning one of the biggest threats out east might not be a big threat after all.

Boston Bruins

The 2019 eastern conference champions. Also a team the Capitals have seemed to have a bit of ownage on. After going 2-1 against Boston last season the Caps are now 14-1 over the Bruins in their last fifteen games. If that isn’t domination I don’t know what is.

While the results may be dominating the stats don’t look as convincing. Here’s how the stats looked last season vs the Bruins.

Record 2-1-0

Corsi For% – 44.24%

Scoring Chance For% – 51.30%

High Danger Corsi For% – 51.22%

Shooting% – 9.84%

Save% – 97.53%

High Danger Save% – 100%

Power Play% – 36.4%

Penalty Kill% – 90%

Clearly some impressive stats in there, particularly the save percentages. Other than that it wasn’t that one-sided. The one thing that was one-sided was the shot attempts and that was in Boston’s favor.

Special teams were also huge in this series, as with most series and games. The Caps power play was excellent and the penalty kill was terrific. Penalty kill is even more impressive when you consider the Bruins finished the season with a top three power play.

Sometimes it’s bizarre why results go so one-sided for extended periods of time but this is one of those times. Washington will obviously hope these results last a little longer and in that case Boston might not be as big a threat out east either.

I think we should take a moment to appreciate that 100% high danger save percentage. There were 20 high danger attempts by Boston vs Washington last season and none resulted in goals. Incredible! 2 goals on 81 shots is another really impressive stat adding up to the 97.5 save percentage.

Carolina Hurricanes

I don’t think there is a big threat to Washington in the Metropolitan Division. All the toughest match-ups in the eastern conference come in the Atlantic division with the teams we’ve mentioned before.

Then again, to not mention the team that knocked you out the year before seems a bit foolish. Carolina beating the Capitals was no fluke win. The better team will win a seven game series every time. Last year in that match-up the Hurricanes were the better team. That means they’re a threat.

Record 4-0-0

Corsi For% – 48.28%

Scoring Chance For% – 47.34%

High Danger Corsi For% – 44.57%

Shooting% – 12.22%

Save% – 95.45%

High Danger Save% – 89.29%

Power Play% – 22.2%

Penalty Kill% – 72.7%

Just like all the other teams these stats are only five-on-five in the regular season. No playoff stats. The advanced stats for that series was even uglier with Carolina having a Corsi For% around 60%.

These stats kind of tell you the same things. Carolina was a hard-working team which allowed them to control play for most games they played. That hard-working style gave them scoring chances and high danger chances. If not for the high shooting and save percentages it’s likely a series that would have been a whole lot closer than 4-0 in the regular season.

Those high percentages led to the Capitals outscoring the Hurricanes 11-4 while 5v5. While the PK still wasn’t anything to write home about the power play was still good. That likely made up for any issues the penalty kill had.

It’s tough to say how good the Canes will be this coming season, I could see them going both ways, up or down. If they take a step back then that’s obviously one threat avoided for the Capitals. If they improve even more they might be an even worse match-up in the Metro division. Only time will tell, but right now they are the biggest threat in the Metro.

Which of these teams is the hardest match-up? Or is there another team that could be a sneaky threat?