Tom Wilson Is In A Big Five On Five Scoring Slump

Tom Wilson scored a goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning two games ago. He has two goals in his last six games.

He has 12 goals in 35 games played this season. That puts Wilson on pace to score 28 goals if he were to play all 82 games this season. That would beat his career best that he set last season with 22 goals.

All seems good for Wilson. All is in fact good for Wilson, if you take away 5v5 scoring. In the last 17 games Tom Wilson has four total goals. That’s not great but it’s plenty from him. The problem here is three of those four goals have come against an empty net. In his last 17 games, which goes back to November 11th, Wilson has just one goal at 5v5.

His last 5v5 goal was against the Detroit Red Wings on November 30th. Before that his last 5v5 goal came way back on November 9th against the Vegas Golden Knights.

More from Editorials

• Alex Ovechkin will score 50 goals in 2023-24
• It’s time for Capitals fans to chill out with the Anthony Mantha hate
• The Capitals Have Several Potentially Bad Contracts
• Nic Dowd looks to show reliability
• Dylan Strome’s Contract Could Be A Steal For The Capitals

You can’t say it’s for lack of trying. In these 17 games Wilson has 27 shots on goal which is fifth most on the team. He has 29 individual scoring chances, that’s fourth most on the Caps. Finally, he has 22 high danger attempts for, that leads the team, second place being Alex Ovechkin with 19.

As long as someone is getting chances there is no need to worry. When the chances start to go the way of the dodo that’s when you have a problem. It’s likely just a matter of time before Wilson gets back on the scoresheet and doing so consistently.

At the same time everyone will go through this throughout the season. For whatever reason goals are harder to come by. Slumps happen, just continue doing the things you know will result in you tickling the twine.

But the Capitals will need Wilson to snap out of this funk soon. This is a pretty top heavy offensive team and if someone in their top six isn’t scoring it could be a problem later in the season and in the playoffs.

The fourth line has done a tremendous job so far this season. They’ve posted a 60.23% Corsi rating, they own about 62% of the scoring chances when they’re on the ice and have 26 high danger attempts for with 13 against. They’ve also scored six goals and have allowed four.

The third line has been mostly nonexistent for most of this year. The Panik-Eller-Hagelin trio do have positive Corsi and scoring chances percentages but they’ve scored one goal 5v5 this season.

That puts more and more pressure on the top six which these days includes Tom Wilson. Last season Wilson had 22 goals , 15 of them were at 5v5. He had three power play goals and two goals into an empty net. Do the math, that also means he had two shorthanded goals.

This season Wilson has 12 goals so far, six of them are 5v5, he has 1 power play goal, 1 shorthanded goal and three empty netters. (Wilson also has 1 overtime goal which is 3v3)

Six goals at 5v5 at 35 games played means Wilson is pretty much on pace to have as many as he did last season. He’s on pace for just about 14 5v5 goals this season. It’s not like he’s taken a big step backwards but in my eyes the Capitals probably need more from him 5v5, especially now given his slump.

This schneid that Wilson is on won’t likely last too much longer. The chances have been there and the stats back that up. But Washington needs him to get back to the rate he was scoring earlier in the season where he had five goals 5v5 in the teams first 18 games.

If the fourth line starts to decline later in the season and playoffs, and if the third line can never figure it out the Capitals need the top six and Wilson to carry the team. Having one of the big boys scoring one goal at full and even strength in nearly 20 games is not going to get it done.