Washington Capitals: Evgeny Kuznetsov Is Rounding Into Form

Evgeny Kuznetsov did not have a great start to his 2021 season. First of all, he was forced to miss eight games early in the season thanks to Covid protocol. That adding to an already strange and hard season for these players. After returning from his eight game absence he didn’t have a ton of success.

Here at Stars and Sticks, we talked about how Kuznetsov was on pace to have one of his worst seasons as an NHL player. To be more specific he was on pace to have just 49 points in a full 82 game season.

That was just over a month ago. Kuznetsov at that point had played in just ten games. In the month since, he has played fourteen more games. Those fourteen games have been a lot more successful for Kuznetsov, at least in the goals and points department.

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In his first ten games of the season he had just six points. Two of those six points were goals. In his last fourteen games Kuznetsov ranks tied for fourth in points with 12. He is behind only Ovechkin (15), Backstrom (14) and Carlson (13) and tied with Oshie.

Something I find even more impressive is nearly all of those points have come at 5v5. In those fourteen games 11 of his 12 points have come 5v5. He is second in 5v5 scoring since February 25th, once again behind only Ovechkin who has 12 5v5 points. And hey, if you want to be even more impressed take a look at this. Of those 11 points since then, 9 are primary points. That meaning 9 of those points are either goals or primary assists.

Thanks to his recent play if Kuznetsov were to play an 82 game season he would put up around 61 points. Or if he were to play in 72 games he would have around 54 points. He has missed ten games this season so take ten away from what would be a regular and full season.

I always like to look at advanced stats to see how a player is playing overall. So in saying that, lets compare Kuznetsov’s first ten games to his latest fourteen games.

In his first ten games his numbers were:

CF% – 55.26%

SCF% – 50.85%

HDCF% – 60.87%

xGF% – 58.69%

All of those numbers are very good. The scoring chance percentage could be higher, and honestly, it is a bit strange it was as low as it was considering how high the other numbers were. Still, it was over 50%, when you look at these numbers that at the least is what you want to see.

Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington Capitals Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

Now lets see how he has done in his last fourteen games.

CF% – 50.40%

SCF% – 52.38%

HDCF% – 50.75%

xGF% – 55.77%

Most of the numbers have taken a drop, that is obviously not something you want to see. That being said, the majority of the time Kuznetsov has centered the Ovechkin line and I’m not sure that’s a line that will very be possession oriented. The fact that the numbers are still over 50%, and some well over 50% is a very good sign.

Mr. Bird Man pic.twitter.com/a77VCfqFJI
— Washington Capitals (@Capitals) March 28, 2021

Nearly one month ago we here said that while Evgeny Kuznetsov was struggling, maybe just give him some time. The advanced numbers looked good, just give him some time to find his game in a weird season and a season where he was forced to miss a bunch of games early.

Here we are more than halfway into the season now and it looks like Kuznetsov has rounded into form. Hopefully this is more than just a hot streak and he can take this form into the playoffs. When Kuznetsov plays like this the Capitals are a very hard team to beat.