Being good on defense is pretty important if your team has Stanley Cup aspirations. I won’t sit here and say you have to be the absolute best team in the NHL in terms of goals allowed to be a serious Cup contender. However, if your team is towards the top I think most people would have an easier time picking you to win it all.
The Capitals are not a very good defensive team. Washington averages 3.03 goals against per game. That is bottom half of the league and even creeping into the bottom third of the league. Teams that are just behind the Caps are the likes of New Jersey, Calgary and Chicago. Teams that have spent a good amount of time out of the playoff picture or have fallen out of the playoff picture.
Some teams that are ahead of the Washington Capitals in GA/PG are teams like Dallas, the Rangers, the LA Kings and Nashville. Again, teams that have spent a good majority of the time out of the playoff picture in their respective divisions. If you look in the top half of the league, most of the teams you see in goals allowed a game are teams that are playoff teams. If you look more towards the bottom, it’s non playoff teams.
A lot of great teams will have that one pair on defense that teams don’t want their star players to play against. From someone who has watched a ton of San Jose Sharks game I can tell or remind you that when the Sharks went to the Cup Final back in 2016 it was Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun who shutdown a lot of teams top lines.
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The reason I bring that up is because I remember how frustrated those top players must have been playing against that pair on defense. In particular, Filip Forserg and Vladimir Tarasenko did not have good offensive numbers against the Sharks in that playoff run. That to me is a good example of something I always think about. Does your team have a pair on defense that the other team does not want to play against, and more importantly the top players don’t want to play against?
Lets look at a couple defensive pairs in the NHL and compare them to all the the Capitals usual D pairs to see how the Caps compare. It’s never fair to compare average things to great things. But this is just to show how the Capitals defense compares so you can see either how good or how off they are in comparison.
Here are a couple of great pairs and their numbers.
Ryan Ellis-Roman Josi – Nashville
CF% – 57.48%
SCF% – 59.92%
HDCF% – 58.88%
xGF% – 55.81%
This is an interesting pair to discuss for one big reason. John Carlson lost the Norris Trophy to Roman Josi last season. Carlson had a half a season for the ages before either falling off a cliff or hanging onto that cliff for dear life the second half of the season. So remember these numbers when we look at Carlson’s numbers this season.
Dougie Hamilton-Jaccob Slavin – Carolina
CF% – 55.37%
SCF% – 54.99%
HDCF% – 58.03%
xGF – 55.28%
This could be another interesting one to look at because based on how the Hurricanes have done so far this season this could be a team and a pair the Capitals will have to play in the playoffs.
Lets go ahead now and look at the Capitals three usual pairs on defense.
Carlson – Dillon
CF%- 48.56%
SCF% – 47.95%
HDCF% – 46.36%
xGF% – 47.93%
Orlov – Schultz
CF% – 48.74%
SCF% – 47.47%
HDCF% – 46.51%
xGF% – 47.87%
Chara – Jensen
CF% – 46.48%
SCF% – 48.84%
HDCF% – 46.59%
xGF% – 48.55%
I would argue none of these pairs are as good defensively as the Vlasic – Braun pair I mentioned earlier. Just for fun, lets take a look at that pair during the 2016 playoffs just to see.
Vlasic – Braun – 2016 Sharks Playoffs
CF% – 50.96%
SCF% – 53.33%
HDCF% – 55.66%
xGF% – 54.27%
All of the other pairs have more offense than this pair did, so that will affect the numbers some.
Still, looking at these numbers, and having watched this team all season, the Capitals defense is not a good one. I don’t know if it’s vital to have a “shutdown” pair on defense, but I do know the Capitals defensive pairs have to be better.
I don’t think the Capitals are going to go as far as they want with their defensive numbers looking like that. I’m not breaking any news here. The Capitals team defense needs to get a whole lot better and the pairs on defense also need to pick it up.
Is there a pair on defense that other teams don’t want to play against? Based on the numbers, and of course the eye test, teams don’t have much to be afraid of on the Caps blue line.