There’s no secret number, there is no magic stat that can ever tell us who is going to win a championship in any given sport. It doesn’t matter if you are talking about the Washington Capitals or any other franchise or club in any other sport. The only way we can figure out who will win the title is waiting until the end of the year, seeing the scoreline in the last game, and having the big F after it indicating the last game has been played.
But, at the end of the day, that shouldn’t stop any of us from having some fun and trying to figure some things out long before that final F has been determined. When trying to figure out who has a chance to win the championship, the only thing we can do is look at trends, look certain numbers and see if we can find a reason why a team may or may not win the big prize at the end of the season.
For the Capitals and Capitals fans there has been plenty to like at the quarter mark of the season. With twenty-three games played Washington is tied for 2nd place in the entire NHL. As of writing this they have a two point lead in the division over two teams who have both played two less games, those two teams being the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Rangers. The Capitals have also beaten both of those teams already this season.
With their impressive 14-4-5 record they have amassed 33 points. All of what we’ve said is impressive, near the top of the league, top of the division and 33 points. But to me, losing just 4 times in regulation in 23 games, that is very, very impressive. All of that happening while a lot of the lineup is out due to injury, and the fact that the Caps have had to rely on a lot of rookies.
It’s never a bad thing to play well. I just thought I’d point that out in case you didn’t know that. It’s also never a bad idea to start the season well. I have always loved the saying, “You can’t win a game or championship early, but you can surely lose it early.” more often than not that’s true.
The first part of that statement, “You can’t win a game or championship early” got me wondering. How often do the top teams in the early season actually go on to win the Stanley Cup? In recent history, it’s not often.
I never like going too far back into history. When you do that you can sometimes cross into different generations or compare games that have changed too much. Here, we’re only going to go back to 2014-15. That means we will be looking back at the last five full seasons and what did the eventual Stanley Cup winner first quarter of the season look like?
We’ve already said what the Capitals have done this season. They’re 14-4-5, they have 33 points and they are second in the entire NHL. So lets start back in 2014 and where were the Chicago Blackhawks at after November 30th.
The Blackhawks in 2014 were 15-8-1 after November 30th. They had played in 24 games (obviously if you had done that math) they had 31 points, but they were officially 11th in the NHL at the time. To be fair, first place in the league that year, the Montreal Canadiens had 34 points, as did five other teams. Still, Chicago had lost 8 games in regulation, and again, were officially in 11th place.
In 2015 the Pittsburgh Penguins were just 13-8-2 in 23 games played. They had 28 points and they were also in 11th place in the league at the time. They were 11 points out of first place in the league and 5 points out of the top five.
As Capitals fans love to hear, the Penguins won the Stanley Cup again in 2017. To start the next season, they were pretty similar, at least record wise. In the first 23 games they were 13-7-3, good for 29 points, one point better than the previous season. That year, they were 5 points out of first place. They were technically 6th in the league, but they were tied for fourth place with three other teams.
Then we can move on to, thee season, for Capitals fans. Where were the Capitals after November in 2017? Well, they weren’t that great. They were 14-11-1. They had 29 points, but they were all the way down in 13th place. They were 7 points out of first and 4 points out of the top five.
Finally, we finish up with the St. Louis Blues in 2018. The Blues that year are a good example of nothing being concrete. That saying of “You can’t win early, but you can surely lose early” doesn’t apply to them this season. After November, St. Louis was 9-12-1. They had just 21 points and were 30th out of 31 teams that season. They were 16 points away from first and 14 points away from a top five spot.
If you want, you could go back to the last couple of seasons. But one season was paused for nearly five months, and the next season was only 56 games. This season, we’re talking about a full 82 game season, it seems unfair to compare those. It doesn’t make winning in those seasons any less impressive, or any accomplishments less important. It’s just a little bit of a different argument.
I’ll say this again. Nothing is concrete. Numbers are just numbers. Stats are just stats. And yes, a lot of these teams we just talked about were towards the top of the league. And the difference is very little.
The point I’m making here is simple. In recent history it’s very rare for a team to start hot and then finish hot. The Washington Capitals have started very well. That being said and that being a fact they are going to have to buck a trend.
If the Washington Capitals win the Stanley Cup they will be one of the few teams in recent years to start the season at the top of the league and finish the season skating the Stanley Cup around the rink.