Did Ilya Samsonov Seize His Latest Opportunity?

Ilya Samsonov has proven in the past that he is a talented goaltender. Out of all the words that have been said or written about the Washington Capitals goalie situation, I don’t think anybody has questioned the talent level of the young Russian netminder.

Samsonov obviously has flaws in his game, but who doesn’t. Show me the absolute best hockey player the world has ever seen and there is still probably a flaw is his game somewhere. Even the best goalies have an area of their game that is a bit weaker than all of the other areas. It’s just how life works. No one is perfect.

One thing that I have said about Samsonov is that since his first season in the NHL he hasn’t been able to seize the opportunity. After having a great rookie season and essentially helping Braden Holtby out of the building Samsonov has had chances to become the Capitals number one goalie. He just hasn’t seized those opportunities.

He just got another chance recently. Vitek Vanecek, who has done better at capitalizing on his chances, picked up a little knock which gave Samsonov several starts in a row. Did he do better at trying to cement the number one job?

Overall, the eye test looked pretty good. He looked better than he was earlier in the season. That was obvious when he went to California with the team and posted back to back shutouts vs the Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks.

However, since then Samsonov has started in four more games and he has allowed 3 or more goals in three of those games. His last four save percentages look like this,

.902%

.938%

.864%

.893%

While I don’t think it is very debatable that Samsonov has in fact looked better, he is still letting in a little too many goals. He has started in 12 games this season and he has let up three or more goals 7 times. When he’s in net, the team and him need to do a little better a limiting the goals against.

To just prove how much better Samsonov has been recently lets go ahead and look at some numbers from his last 6 starts compared to those same numbers from his first 6 games. We’ll look at his numbers from his first 6 first.

2.93 GAA

.894% SV%

.822% HDSV%

-2.62 GSAA

His Goals Saved Above Average number ranked 40th out of 52 goalies who played in 200+ minutes between the start of the season and the 16th of November.

Now lets see his numbers since the 16th.

2.17 GAA

.931% SV%

.818% HDSV%

3.40 GSAA

That goals saved above average number now ranks 11th out of the 68 goalies who have played in the NHL since November 16th.

When you look at the numbers, and combine that with the eye test of how he’s done it’s pretty obvious he is doing better. I think the thing you can say about Samsonov right now is that his latest attempt to seize the number one job is that he made progress. If nothing else, he made the discussion a bit closer.

There is things he can still work on. Looking at the numbers alone, even when he is playing better his high danger save percentage got a little worse. That .818% ranks 18th out of 33 goalies who have played in 200+ minutes since the 16th.

In terms of his on ice performance, there is one thing I have noticed. Even on the most “innocent” looking shots Samsonov has a bit of a habit of not taking care of that shot cleanly which leads to him and the team scrambling a bit. That can also lead to him making some nice saves that he didn’t have to make if he had just taken care of the first and easier shot better.

The goaltenders have microscopes on them. That won’t change any time soon. Vanecek has done well under the microscope. Since the start of last season he has been pretty consistent and has quite clearly become the teams starter.

Samsonov has been much less consistent, and to be frank, less reliable. He has wasted several chances to cement himself at the number one on this team. But is his latest chance a sign of things to come?