Ilya Samsonov Has A Three Or More Goals Against Problem

It almost seems like forever ago that the Washington Capitals let go of the best goaltender in franchise history, Braden Holtby. They decided to let the former Vezina winner and Stanley Cup champion walk in free agency in 2020. They decided to instead go with the younger, very promising, and lets not walk around the edges here, cheaper option in Ilya Samsonov.

The Capitals had salary cap problems back then, and still do for that matter, and they had to make some tough decisions. Possibly none tougher than that one.

It’s still too early to tell if that was a bad move or not. Samsonov is still a young NHL player and doesn’t have that much experience. He likely needs more time to realize his full potential, even if we are now in his third NHL campaign.

This season for Samsonov has seen more bad than good, at least in my opinion. The Capitals have played 35 games so far this season, Samsonov has played in 20 of those games. His stats are nothing to write home about. His goals against average is creeping into the bad territory at 2.76 and his save percentage is a tick over ninety at .903%.

What is acceptable in those stats? 2.50 with a .910? Does that sound good enough? Samsonov isn’t too far away from that. Yet it is kind of odd how he can feel far away at the same time.

And when you look at those numbers, the 2.76 average and the .903% you can think, “well he doesn’t give up three goals a game, so that’s a start.” which is kind of true.

The problem we have here is that more often that not Samsonov is doing just that, giving up three goals or more in a game.

As we said earlier, he has played in 20 of the Capitals games this season,18 of those games have been starts. He’s given up three or more goals in 13 of the 20 games he has played. If you want to be a reliable starter in this league I’m going to go out on a limb and say that is going to have to get better.

Samsonov giving up three or more goals in 13 out of 20 games this season made me wonder about what other younger goalies are doing around the NHL. How are some of the other goalies who are trying to cement themselves as “the guy” on their teams performing in terms of three or more goals against a game.

The reason I did younger guys is simply because it’s unfair to compare Samsonov to an Andrei Vasilevskiy, or a Connor Hellebuyck or a John Gibson or anyone like that. Guys who are well established and who we all know are great goalies. Guys who could easily be nominated for Vezina’s and guys who were being talked about to represent their countries in the upcoming Olympics. At least until that went the way of the dodo.

So lets take a look at a few guys who are on the younger side and are starting to claim the number one job on their team.

The first one is Jack Campbell up on Toronto. Young? Well, that’s maybe up for debate now. He’s now 29-years-old, not the youngest guy you’ll see, but still plenty of time left in his career. Even being a bit older than everyone we’ll talk about today he still only has 111 games of NHL experience.

This season Campbell has a 1.87 GAA and a save percentage of .939%. He has played in 25 games this season. Out of those 25 games, he has given up three or more goals just 7 times. Six less times than Samsonov in five more games played.

A younger guy this is cementing his spot as the number one guy comes in the metro division. We’re going over to Pittsburgh now to talk about Tristan Jarry. Still older than Samsonov, Jarry is 26-years-old. In terms of NHL experience he has the most of the guys we’ll talk about at 127 games played.

Jarry has a GAA of 1.90 and his save percentage is .933%. So far this season Jarry has given up three or more goals just 5 times in the 26 games he’s played this year.

The last guy will look at here is Vancouver’s Thatcher Demko. Demko is also 26-years-old, so once again, older than Samsonov. Demko has the least amount of experience out of the three goalies we’re talking about, he has played in just 99 career NHL games.

This season though he has played in the most out of everybody we’re talking about, he’s played in 27 games as of writing this. This season he has a 2.55 GAA and a .920% save percentage. He has allowed three or more goals 12 times. Twelve times out of 27 games. One less time in seven more appearances.

Like I said, all of these guys are older than Samsonov. A couple of them have almost double the experience at the NHL level. The point I would make here is simply this. All of these guys don’t have that much experience, all of them have been given the opportunity this season and three of the four have taken it and ran with it. One hasn’t. 

This could be a big deal. When the playoffs come things tighten up. The best teams in the league will likely not let you score four or five goals a game. More often than not, when Samsonov is in the nets that’s apparently what you need. In 13 of his 20 games they Capitals have needed at least 4 goals to win a game.

Luckily for the Capitals they are a good offensive team. Even with his three or more problem his record is 13-3-3. Clearly the team can support him. But do you think they can continue to do this in the postseason? Do you think they will be able to score more than three a game against the best defenses and the elite goaltenders?

I know my answer.

My answer is three or more goals in more than half of your appearances isn’t going to get the Cup back to D.C. That is something Samsonov is going to have to improve on if he wants to be a good starter in the NHL and help this team win trophies at the end of the year.