Is Evgeny Kuznetsov Still Living Off Of His Great Start?

Evgeny Kuznetsov is going to the NHL All-Star game this season. It will be his second All-Star game nod, his first being in 2016. It’s just another example on how much better the 29-year-old Russian is playing this season compared to the last two or three seasons.

If Kuznetsov hasn’t been the Washington Capitals best player of the season he probably isn’t much lower than the second best player. It likely is a toss up between him and Alex Ovechkin, at that point it’s a take your pick kind of situation. There is no wrong answer there, those two guys have been carrying this Caps team for most of the season.

In Kuznetsov’s case that is terrific to see. “The Birdman” is a guy with a ton of skill and talent. I have been saying for years I think Kuznetsov has top ten talent in the National Hockey League. When he is going strong there is not a lot of guys that can do what he does. He has great skating, he can stick handle in a phone booth, he can shoot and is one of the better playmakers in the league.

That goes to show you how much he was struggling on and off the ice for the past several seasons. When you describe someone’s game like I just did, someone like that shouldn’t be on the trade block. At one point it looked as if it was 50/50 if Kuznetsov was going to get traded or remain with the Capitals.

Thankfully for Washington fans he stayed, and man did he come out of the gates flying to start the season. That hot start lasted a pretty long while. In his first 21 games of the season Kuznetsov was second on the team in scoring. He had 27 points, 7 goals and 20 assists, 13 of those assists were primary assists as well.

Kuznetsov is never really a great advanced numbers guy. Most of his stats will hover around 50%, you just hope they don’t fall to far below that. To start the season his numbers were a little up and down, maybe suggesting a dip in his play was coming? Look at his numbers from the early season.

Corsi% – 49.92%

Scoring Chance% – 47.60%

High Danger Attempts% – 46.61%

Expected Goals% – 54.37%

He was second in scoring to only Ovechkin, who has somehow found a fountain of youth somewhere, not that he was old and struggling before by any means. His numbers were good, great in some cases. Above all that, the eye test was outstanding. Kuznetsov was flying all over the place. He was clearly the best player on the ice on a lot of those early nights. It was fantastic to watch.

I think it’s fair to say, his play has slid in the last few months. The entire Capitals team has taken a bit of a nasty slip recently so this really isn’t calling out Kuznetsov that much. Then again, if your star players play drops a bit a lot of the time so does the teams. Again, take your pick on where you fall in that argument.

But, at least in my opinion, it’s not really up for debate. Kuznetsov’s play has dipped since his hot start. Was his hot start sustainable? I tend to think so. That’s what makes the best players the best players. They bring it nearly every night.

Since November 26th Kuznetsov has 16 points in 21 games played. This worked out really nicely, 21 games each, in one split he was six points over his games played, in the other he is five points under. That is an eleven point swing.

Here are his fancy stats.

Corsi% – 52.36%

Scoring Chance% – 53.31%

High Danger Attempts% – 48.48%

Expected Goals% – 49.75%

When you watch Kuznetsov, and when you look at his stats, I think it’s fair to say he is usually a high event player. He’ll get you chances, but when he’s on the ice chances will also come against. You saw how great he was earlier this season and you saw his advanced stats and how “poor” those numbers were. As you can see, his numbers have actually improved a bit since his hot start. That being said, when he’s on the ice the Caps give up more high danger attempts and the expected goals percentage is on the wrong side of 50%.

Stats are just stats. Whether we’re talking about the advanced ones or the traditional ones. Struggling players can put up good numbers and players playing well can slump for some weird reason. It’s sports, it’s life, it happens.

The thing that is somewhat disappointing for me is Kuznetsov is not as noticeable as he was early this season.

The good news there is he is still miles ahead of where he was the past few seasons. He hasn’t gone back to the Kuznetsov where you might notice him in one game then he disappears for the next seven or eight games. This Kuznetsov you still might notice him several times a game. That’s great.

But his play has dropped. The eye test shows that and some numbers back it up.

The Capitals have fallen off a bit since the end of November. This was a team that was sitting on top of the division earlier this season. They are now seven points out of first place, they sit in the first wild card position and are four points out of third in their division.

This is going to be a tough race for the rest of the year. It’s going to get even tougher in the playoffs as we all know. The way this Capitals team is built they are going to need their best players to play their best hockey.

Kuznetsov showed us what his best hockey looks like earlier this season. He will need to step back up to that level if the Caps want to make a long run in the spring and summer.