Should Connor McMichael’s Lack Of Production Be Concerning?

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 24: Connor McMichael #24 of the Washington Capitals reacts to a play against the Vegas Golden Knights during the second period of the game at Capital One Arena on January 24, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 24: Connor McMichael #24 of the Washington Capitals reacts to a play against the Vegas Golden Knights during the second period of the game at Capital One Arena on January 24, 2022 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Connor McMichael had a lot of hype around him from Washington Capitals fans. When you saw what he was doing in juniors it was hard not to look at his potential and drool a little bit. Every fanbase will do that whether that prospect is a high level prospect or not. Capitals fans are no different.

Look at the numbers that McMichael posted in the Ontario Hockey League. In his draft year he had 36 goals and 72 points in 67 games. Good numbers. Then the year after he was drafted 25th overall by the Caps he went off and scored 47 goals and 102 points in just 52 games played. McMichael was looking like another gem from one of, if not the best junior program in the London Knights.

He then made the jump to professional hockey last season and still did very well. In 33 American Hockey League games he scored 14 times and put up 27 points. That is really good for a first year pro. He was living up to all of his hype.

So far in his NHL career however the production has not come. McMichael has spent the entire season with the Capitals playing in the vast majority of games this season. In 50 games this season, the young forward has 7 goals and 15 points. Bad? No. Great? Obviously not. Good? Eh. Debatable.

Lets not act like the NHL isn’t tough. Everybody knows this. There are very, very few young players that come into the toughest league in the world and put up points right away. Even some of the very best and brightest stars need time to figure things out. An example of this right now would be Jack Hughes up in New Jersey.

Hughes in his first season played in 61 games and he put up just 21 points, just 7 of those being goals. Even the next season, playing in 56 games he still was only able to score 31 points and 11 goals. Now this year, he has 39 points in 34 games. He has exploded recently being on an eight game point streak and having 14 points in that streak. Four of those games being multi point games and those four games were all in a row.

Should we compare McMichael to a number one overall pick in Hughes? Should we compare someone who went 25th overall to someone who had teams potentially tank to get him number one overall? Lose for Hughes, remember that? Probably not.

Maybe there is another guy we can compare him to? How about Evgeny Kuznetsov? He went 26th overall in the 2010 draft. Kuznetsov, much like McMichael, didn’t light things up when he started his NHL journey.

Kuznetsov, in his first full NHL season, put up only 30 points in 80 games. Kuznetsov was also older and had played professional hockey for several season before coming to the U.S. in 2014.

If McMichael were to play in an 82 game season he would be on pace for about 24 points. Not that far behind one of the Capitals best current players in his first full year.

When you look at some of the individual numbers, McMichael may be having a better year than a rookie Kuznetsov did. Kuznetsov had 20 points at 5v5 in his first season. McMichael has 15 points right now with around twenty-fives games still to be played. It’s not out of the question at all for McMichael to catch or pass Kuznetsov’s mark from 2014-15. Even if he doesn’t catch him, it is still close enough.

Another stat to look at is individual scoring chances. McMichael has one of the highest numbers on the entire Capitals team this season having 80 chances, fifth on the team and 7 behind Kuznetsov this season. Kuznetsov had 83 scoring chances in his entire rookie season.

Number ninety-two also had 31 high danger attempts in his rookie year while McMichael is already at 41 this year. McMichael is second on the team in high danger attempts. He is ahead of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, etc. To be fair, a couple of those guys have missed significant time due to injury, but putting McMichael ahead of those names is still incredibly impressive.

We live in an instant gratification world these days. I want something great and I want it now and if it isn’t great instantly toss it aside and try to find something better. If you want an example of that just look at the quarterback position in football.

Be patient! I don’t see a lot of people panicking over McMichael and his lack of production. Most of this season on the ice he has looked good. Maybe sometimes he becomes a little invisible and more so lately. This is his first season after all. He is somewhat entitled to hit that proverbial “rookie wall”.

He’s looked pretty good this season. His underlying numbers will back that up. The offense and the numbers will come. The Capitals got a very good player in Connor McMichael. He just needs a handful or two of more games to realize his full potential.