As Washington Capitals fans, whether you love John Carlson’s play on the ice or hate it, you cannot deny one thing. Carlson is one of the best Capitals currently on the team, and maybe ever. The way the vast majority of people look at hockey would easily tell you this. Points rule all, and Carlson is very good at getting those sweet, sweet points. You can’t argue that.
Something you also cannot argue is the fact that come playoff time you need your best players to be your best players. In a lot of instances it will be depth guys who maybe get the deciding goal or maybe the deciding play. But overall, you need your best players to play well.
For the last several seasons the Capitals have been a little hit and miss in this category. Come playoff time some of their stars have been good at the most important time of the year, others have not.
Carlson has not.
When you watch the games most of the time his play looks very uneven. He can make good defensive plays, but then he will give up chances later that a number one defensemen should not let up as often as he does. Then of course we all know how threatening he can be going forward. All of that is pretty easy to see.
Then you go to look at Carlson’s numbers and it shows not only is he uneven, he has been really bad in the playoffs in the last three years.
Going back to 2020 Carlson has played in 16 playoff games. His stats look like this.
CF% – 45.06
xGF% – 39.66
SCF% – 41.63
HDCF% – 42.16
Goals For – 6
Goals Against – 21
Total Points – 1
All of those numbers are of course at 5v5.
To compare to a teammate, Dmitry Orlov has played 361 minutes to Carlson’s 274. Orlov does not have very good numbers either, all of them being under 50%, some being well below that. However, while on the ice at 5v5 Orlov has 10 goals for and 16 goals against. He has nearly one hundred more minutes played at full and even strength and has four more goals for and 5 fewer goals allowed.
When you watch the Capitals broadcast it is not uncommon to hear the fine people the Capitals have on their television crew say that Carlson is among the very best defensemen in the entire NHL. If he is among the very best, lets compare his playoff numbers against the very best then.
How many defensemen in the NHL would you take over Victor Hedman right now? If any, probably not many. What do his numbers look like in the past three playoffs?
CF% – 52.61
xGF% – 52.99
SCF% – 52.75
HDCF% – 54.64
Goals For – 47
Goals Against – 29
Total Points – 20
Hedman has played a lot more hockey in the playoffs than Carlson has in the last three years. He has played in 59 games to this point with more to come as Tampa Bay is getting ready for another conference final.
Is Carlson among the best? He shouldn’t be in the conversation with Hedman. Hedman has played in 43 more games than Carlson and he and his team have allowed only 8 more goals at 5v5.
Let’s go to some other great defensemen. How about Roman Josi.
Maybe Josi will be a better comparison in terms of team. Tampa is a great team that has been able to play in a ton of playoff games. Josi is on a fairly average team that has played in a similar amount of playoff games to the Capitals. So what do his numbers look like?
CF% – 52.29
xGF% – 52.74
SCF% – 52.51
HDCF% – 60
Goals For – 10
Goals Against – 14
While on the ice Josi and his team give up more goals than they score. That is comparable to Carlson and the Caps. To be a little fair to Josi, four of those goals against came this postseason when Nashville did not have a very good goalie in net and going against one of the scariest offenses the league had to offer. Josi has also played more minutes than Carlson despite playing in fewer games. Josi has played in 14 playoff games having a TOI of 290:12.
Lets just compare Carlson to one more guy. Carlson is an offensive dynamo. Someone who will go for chances offensively and maybe give up chances on the other way. Who else is very, very good offensively? Cale Makar.
In the last few seasons Makar has played in 33 playoffs games. How do his numbers look?
CF% – 60.51
xGF% – 58.65
SCF% – 61.84
HDCF% – 56.82
Goals For – 41
Goals Against – 22
Makar has played 605 minutes in those 33 games. While on the ice, he and his team have allowed one more goal than Carlson and the Capitals despite having played over three hundred more minutes.
These are all true number one defensemen. Playing very good hockey for their teams at the most important time of the year. All of them putting up good numbers, some of those guys are on great teams, some on pretty average teams.
The Capitals have had good teams and potentially very good teams over the last three seasons. One reason they have failed to win any rounds since they won the Stanley Cup in 2018 is a lot of their team since then have failed to show up come playoff time.
How many players can you say have played well in the playoffs since they won the Cup? Ovechkin, Oshie, Backstrom. Among regulars, I think that is probably it. Some of the other regulars have had spurts of great play, but in the playoffs you can’t have spurts. Like we said earlier, and like we all know, at this time of the year you need your best to be your best.
Carlson has not been the best. To put it bluntly, he has been bad. When you compare his on ice play and his numbers to his teammates he is probably one of the worst Capitals over the past three playoffs.
It’s a team game. And yes, a lot of these stats will also represent how a team is playing, not just the individual. But the Nashville Predators also did not have good stats this postseason. All of their important stats hovering around 40% some being even worse than that, and Josi was still able to put up good numbers.
John Carlson is a very good defenseman when it comes to producing offense. He is very iffy when it comes to the other aspects of the game.
Before we continue to rank Carlson among the very best the NHL has to offer on the back end maybe we should wait for him the once again prove that. Because over the past three seasons, he is not even close to being among the best.