Is Darcy Kuemper As Big Of A Risk As Ilya Samsonov?

I couldn’t even begin to tell you how many times I and we as Washington Capitals writers has said the following over the past several months. The Capitals need goaltending help. With the signing of Darcy Kuemper at the start of free agency this summer that saying is no more. On paper, the Capitals have solved that problem.

On paper the Capitals are signing a guy who has a career 2.48 goals against average and a .918 save percentage to go along with that. On paper the team is signing a bonafide starter, someone who is a starting goalie on most NHL teams. The Capitals got the best goalie available in free agency. That is a pretty major win.

It doesn’t come without its risks however. I am under the impression that there really is no such thing as a risk free signing or risk free acquisition in general. You can and should try to find the warning signs in pretty much everything you do, weigh the good and the bad then make your decisions.

There is a little risk in Darcy Kuemper. Just like there is a risk in signing now former Capitals netminder Ilya Samsonov, which the Toronto Maple Leafs did. Which one is the bigger risk?

Well, lets not kid ourselves, Samsonov is the bigger risk. The Leafs are a team that needed goaltending just as much as the Capitals did. The Caps got arguably the biggest goalie prize in the market, the Leafs got two very questionable guys to guard their nets. The Capitals won this exchange.

But there are still risks for both, the risks are just different, as Chris Johnston pointed out on his podcast.

For the Maple Leafs the risk was probably worth taking. They just signed a 25-year-old “kid”, that age still being fairly young for a goalie, to a cheaper contract. They signed Samsonov at a $1.8 million cap hit for one year. I know it may be hard for Caps fans to believe, but the guy still has potential. In my opinion, he is still an NHL goalie, he just has things he needs to work on. If he finds himself in a good situation, working with the right coaches and playing behind the right team, maybe he reaches that potential.

For the contract that he signed, I would say that is worth the risk.

For the Capitals the risk they are taking is very worth it too I would say. This is a team that really has not had great goaltending since they won the Stanley Cup, maybe the season after that.

Braden Holtby posted a 2.82 GAA with a .911 save percentage the season after Washington hoisted Lord Stanley’s Cup. Pretty good. Higher average than you would want, but the save percentage is good. The season after that he had a 3.11 GAA and a .897 save percentage.

That last Holtby season was the year Samsonov bursted onto the scene. He started the season well that year, but fell off later, potentially hitting that “rookie wall”. Samsonov never really got back to that great level that he started at.

Since then the Caps had been searching for someone to be their starter. Samsonov would put in decent stretches then fade. Vitek Vanecek would do a lot of the same. Neither guy would ever truly lock down the starters position. The Capitals needed a starter, they signed one in Kuemper.

But there are risks with Kuemper.

One, he is 32-years-old. They just signed him to a five year contract with a cap hit of $5.25 million. Bad contract? Not right now. Maybe it could hurt in a couple of years, especially if he doesn’t play well as he is getting older and older.

The contract doesn’t bother me and shouldn’t bother anybody. In my eyes the Capitals really only need Kuemper to play well for one or two seasons while the teams window is still open. After that it is expected the cap may take a somewhat dramatic rise after staying flat for the past couple of seasons. If Kuemper can play like a starter for a year or two, help the team compete and then the cap rises easing his cap hit, that is a serious win for Washington.

So the risk really isn’t the contract, it’s the play on the ice.

Kuemper has only been a “true” starter, whatever that could mean, twice, maybe three times in his career. Once in 18-19 where he played in 55 games, posting a 2.33 GAA and a .925 save percentage. He played in 27 games in the shortened 20-21 season where he had a 2.56 GAA and a .907 save percentage. Then obviously this past season with Colorado playing 57 games and having a 2.54 GAA and a .921 save percentage.

As we pointed out earlier, his career stats are good. That is a good sign. His playoff stats do leave a little to be desired however. Kuemper has played in 34 career playoff games, 16 of those coming this past season. In those 34 games he has a 2.72 GAA and a .907 save percentage. Nothing bad, but very average at the same time.

In a much smaller sample size, in 8 games Samsonov has a 2.98 GAA with a save percentage of .907. Higher average, but the exact same save percentage.

This past season Kuemper did not have a great playoffs, even in winning a Stanley Cup. He had a 2.57 GAA, which is good, but his save percentage was only .902. That save percentage was one of the lowest save percentages for a cup winning goalie in quite some time. If he isn’t playing for one of the best teams we’ve seen in the Avalanche does he help lead a team to the Cup?

I am just going to say this right now, the Capitals are not the Avalanche. Even with the acquisitions and good moves they have made this off-season they aren’t even close to that Avs team in my opinion, and I doubt I’m alone in that thought.

Kuemper was fighting injuries in the playoffs, no one more public than an eye injury he suffered in the very first round vs the Nashville Predators. Did that hamper his play in the playoffs? It very easily could have.

Among goalies that played in 200+ minutes in the playoffs Kuemper had the fifth worst save percentage in the league. There were eighteen goalies who played 200 or more minutes. Kuemper also had a GSAA or goals saved above average of -4.27, that was second worst in the playoffs. His high danger save percentage was also poor at .792, third worst.

To once again compare to Samsonov, he had a save percentage of .912, eighth best, a GSAA of -0.07, towards the top of the league, and a high danger save percentage of .780.

The Leafs are paying $1.8 million for Samsonov for one year, Washington is paying well over $5 million for five years for an older player.

There is no bigger risk between Kuemper and Samsonov. They both come with their own risks, it’s just two teams taking very different risks.

The Capitals clearly needed to go after experience and someone who is a no doubt starter. They got just that in Kuemper. Still, in my opinion, he has to prove some things. Such as not playing behind an absolutely loaded Avalanche team.

The Leafs flat out just need goaltending. They are taking a risk with a younger guy who still has upside. If it works out for them and Samsonov, terrific!

At the end of the day, the Capitals got exactly what they wanted and needed. It was a good signing by the team, but I would halt on doing backflips. There are still some questions that need to be answered. Both by Kuemper and the entire team.