John Carlson: One of The Very Best or One of The Most Overrated?

When discussing Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson things can sometimes get a little heated. There are a lot of opinions on the Caps top D man and one of the best Caps defensemen of all time. Some will come out and continue to say he is one of the absolute best in the game. The other group will try to point out his flaws to make him sound like one of the most overrated players in the sport.

As with most things, I tend to think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. If you have two groups of thought one is rarely 100% correct. The truth may be closer to one side than the other, but at the end of the day it doesn’t mean one side is completely right.

This is where I tend to land on Carlson. When you watch Carlson and you see the kind of numbers he puts up you simply cannot deny his talent. You can’t sit back and say that he is not a good hockey player when he does some of the things he does.

Since the 2017-18 NHL season Carlson leads all defensemen in scoring. His 328 points are more than Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, Brent Burns, Kris Letang, Morgan Reilly, keep going down the list of impressive names and you will see Carlson ahead of them. Some of those names being Norris Trophy winners as the league’s best defenseman.

In the past five seasons Carlson has nearly been a point per game player. That is pretty insane for a defenseman these days.

When you look at the top scoring U.S. defensemen of all time it looks like Carlson will join the very best when all is said and done. Currently he is ranked 11th in scoring all time and by time next season is finished he will surely be in the top ten, barring something unfortunate happening. He needs about 150 points to crack the top five in all time scoring for a United Stated born D man. For the pace and the talent that Carlson has, I think that is a given he will be top five.

So there is his plus side. Carlson can score and is one of the very best offensive defensemen of his time. If you want to put him as the very best offensive defenseman, you could probably do that and have a strong argument.

I will never say Carlson is not a good defenseman. If I have I was clearly wrong, but you won’t catch me doing it again.

With that being said, here is where I have issues with number seventy-four.

It is one thing to be a great offensive defenseman, it’s another to be a great defenseman overall.

When people say that Carlson is one of the absolute best I have to disagree. It’s strictly opinion, but to me, to be one of the best you have to show that you are at least good if not great on both sides of the rink. Carlson is great on offense, average at best on D. He can make good plays on defense, but gets beaten way too often for my liking to call him one of the best.

So what we are going to do today is take a look at some numbers. These numbers show where the top defensemen in the game are and what they look like compared to Carlson. All of these numbers will be over the past three seasons. That being so one player’s poor or terrific season doesn’t stand out too much, but we get a better look at how their average is.

Lets start basic. Carlson has a Corsi% of 50.98%. What do other top guys look like?

Cale Makar is at 55.97. Charlie McAvoy is 55.89. Jaccob Salvin is 55.38. Shea Theodore is 55.32. Victor Hedman is 53.51. Alex Pietrangelo is 53.51. Drew Doughty is 52.26. Roman Josi has the same exact number as Doughty. Guys like Miro Heiskanen and Quinn Hughes and Darnell Nurse are also ahead of Carlson.

Now we’ll move on to scoring chance percentage. Bottom line, when you are on the ice are you helping your team get scoring chances or are you on the ice when you getting a chance against? Lets again show some names that are above Carlson.

Makar is 57.87, McAvoy is 57.11, Slavin is 56.47, Theodore is at 55.32, Heiskanen is 55.12. Then the big one, Victor Hedman is at 54.94, Josi is at 52.94, Pietrangelo is 52.75. Letang is firmly above Carlson, as is Doughty. Nurse is as well. Carlson ranks 43rd in this stat at 50.58.

The last percentage we will look at is high danger attempts%. Again, very simple. As a player, when you are on the ice are you helping your team get high danger chances or are you on the ice allowing a high danger attempt? Where are the big names, and where is Carlson?

McAvoy is 58.88, Slavin is 56.61, Makar is 56.15, Heiskanen is 54.75, Theodore is 54.43, Hedman is at 53.93, Josi is 53.49, Nurse is 52.86. Again, Doughty is ahead of Carlson, and Pietrangelo is ahead of him too. Carlson is 46th in this number at 50.36.

Finally, goals. When Carlson is on the ice there have been 169 goals scored for his team. The top six in goals for over the past three seasons are Nurse, Makar, McAvoy, Josi, Slavin and Hedman. Nurse has 194 for and Hedman and Slavin have 184 for. Everyone else is in between those numbers, obviously.

Other guys that we have already mentioned that are above Carlson are Letang, Theodore and Pietrangelo.

Now goals against. Carlson has 154 goals against while on the ice. You have to scroll quite a bit to find that number. There are a bunch of players better than that number, here are some of the top guys.

Heiskanen 109, Makar 114, McAvoy 121, Doughty 122, Slavin 125, Theodore 135, Hedman 139, Josi 142, Pietrangelo 144 and Letang at 150.

There are a couple of things I want to mention here. One is plus/minus. How many goals do you score while on the ice compared to how many you and your team give up.

Carlson is +15. What do the others look like?

Heiskanen is also +15. Makar is +79, McAvoy is +65, Doughty is -10 (there is your outlier), Slavin is +59, Theodore is +44, Hedman is +45, Josi is +43, Pietrangelo is +31 as is Kris Letang.

The other thing I want to point out is ice time. Everyone I mentioned today has played at least 3,000 minutes 5v5 over the past three seasons. Carlson has played 3,377 minutes. That is 43rd most. Here are some top guys who have played more.

Nurse, Josi, Theodore, Letang, Heiskanen, Slavin, Hedman, McAvoy, and Pietrangelo. Some of those have played substantially more than Carlson. Nurse for example has played 3,926 minutes. Josi has played in 3,790 minutes. Among those guys Pietrangelo is the closest to Carlson and he has played 3,503 minutes. Still over100 minutes more than Carlson.

The reason I wanted to point out time on ice is so you cannot use that against or for Carlson. Carlson doesn’t play more therefore compiling stats for or against. The top guys play more and do better on both offense and defense.

Something you could also point out here, I haven’t named some guys you could potentially take over Carlson. I didn’t name Adam Fox, Morgan Reilly, Brent Burns, Eirk Karlsson if you still think he has that top potential. There are a bunch of guys you could throw in that rank either just above or just below Carlson in some of these stats.

Someone I also didn’t name was Dmitry Orlov. He ranks above Carlson is pretty much every stat including ice time. Orlov has played 3,560 minutes. He has a 52.67 Corsi, his SCF% is 53.12, his HDCF% is 50.61, and he has 169 goals for with 135 against or is a +34. Orlov’s numbers are more on par with the top guys than Carlson.

Orlov obviously isn’t as deadly on offense, but last season he was able to score 12 goals and put up 35 points. He is clearly a more well rounded player and even potentially a more important player to the Capitals than Carlson is for that reason.

John Carlson is a top NHL player. The hard work and talent it takes to be a top NHL player is beyond any of us, probably multiple times over. It’s not an insult to say he is a top 20, top 15 or “just” a top 10 defenseman. But for people or fans to say he is top 5 or top 3 I think is wrong, and in my opinion he isn’t even close. I think what he shows on the ice and the stats and numbers we can see clearly show that.

This is where I stand on Carlson and I think it is the right place to stand. He is a great player, just not at the very top.